“Hump Day Market Sentiment Swings North” Vista Partners Daily Market Recap – March 4, 2020

Hump day brought forth a positive swing in sentiment and in the markets. Indeed stocks flew higher today, more than recovering yesterday’s losses induced by the Fed’s ‘bull-in-the-china-shop” interest rate surprise move that triggered a sell-off. The S&P 500 & Dow 30 each climbed by +4% while the Nasdaq & Russell eclipsed a +3% move higher! Two Dow 30 leaders jumped today. United Health (UNH) moved higher by +10.72% & Apple (AAPL) moved up +4.64%.  In addition, the beloved FAANG stocks beyond Apple all moved higher too. Facebook (FB) closed at $191.76/share, +3.16%, Alphabet (GOOG) closed at $1,386.52/share, +3.36%, Amazon (AMZN) closed at $1,975.83/share, +3.5%, & Netflix (NFLX) closed at $383.79/share, +4.07%. The S&P 500 health care sector led all sectors that were in the green today moving up +5.8% in the wake of Joe Biden’s Super Tuesday victory and subsequent loss of the far left’s potentially disruptive leaders including Sanders and Warren. A few other names that had nice moves in the healthcare space today were as follows: leading health care insurer eHealth, Inc. (EHTH) which moved up +21.85%, another leading insurer, Anthem, Inc. (ANTM) moved up +15.62%, a gene silencing platform based biotech Neubase Therapeutics (NBSE) moved up +4.18%, a medical device company focused on treating infertility INVO Bioscience (IVOB) moved up +5.47%,  a MedTech company & innovator in seed brachytherapy powering expanding treatment options throughout the body, IsoRay, Inc.(ISR), moved higher by +3.19% & a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of programmed cellular immunotherapies for cancer and immune disorders, Fate Therapeutics (FATE), moved up +8.85 after reporting their quarter’s progress on Monday.

A number of relatively positive economic reports surfaced today that helped power the markets move too. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report for February came in at a 57.3% reading. The ADP Employment Change Report confirmed an increase of 183k nonfarm payrolls in February. The weekly MBA Mortgage Index Report jumped +15.1% while the Refinance Index Report jumped even higher by +26%. However, the Purchase Index dropped by  -2.7%. The Federal Reserve’s March Beige Book stated that activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace during the survey period. 

With the positive trading session the Velocity Shares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX), a leveraged “bet” against the market rising,  closed at $105.85/share down -11.29%.

Oil prices also moved lower again down -1% to close at $46.77/bbl/ even though OPEC recently suggested that they should reduce Q2 oil output by 600k barrels/day.

Gold closed at $ 1,636/oz dropping $10/oz and silver prices closed at $17.21/oz dropping down $.05/oz.

The 2-year Treasury yield dropped to .697, the 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to .994% while the 30-year bond yield bumped up to 1.636%.

Economic Reports

On Monday, we received the following: The ISM Manufacturing Index Report for February confirmed an expansion reading of 50.1, Total construction spending report also confirmed an increase of +1.8% month/month in January, The Residential spending report confirmed an upward move of +2.0% month/month, & The nonresidential spending reports showed an increase of +1.6% month/month.

On Tuesday, we did not receive any economic reports.

On Wednesday, we received the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report for February which came in at a 57.3% reading. The ADP Employment Change Report confirmed an increase of 183k nonfarm payrolls in February. The weekly MBA Mortgage Index Report jumped +15.1% while the Refinance Index Report jumped even higher by +26%. However, the Purchase Index dropped by  -2.7%. The Federal Reserve’s March Beige Book stated that activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace during the survey period. 

Investing & Inspiration

“The riskiest thing we can do is just maintain the status quo.
I get up at 4:30 in the morning, seven days a week, no matter where I am in the world.
I think it is important for people who are given leadership roles to assume that role immediately.
What I’ve really learned over time is that optimism is a very, very important part of leadership.” Bob Iger, Ceo of Disney

“There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”-Ed Seykota

“Let this scenario play out on its own, in its own fashion. As you watch it unfold, you will soon be grateful that you choose the peaceful path. Remember — those who live by the sword, die by the sword.”

“As long as you enjoy investing, you’ll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game.” -Jim Cramer

“I rarely think the market is right. I believe non-dividend stocks aren’t much more than baseball cards. They are worth what you can convince someone to pay for it.” -Mark Cuban

“Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” -Bruce Kovner

“The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” -Jawaharlal Nehru

“The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.” -Philip Fisher

“I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.” -Richard Dennis

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.” -Sir John Templeton

“Money doesn’t make you happy. I now have $50 million but I was just as happy when I had $48 million.” -Arnold Schwarzenegger

Tomorrow

Tomorrow’s significant economic data report schedule will include the following:

• The Weekly Initial Claims

• The Continuing Claims  

• The Revised Q4 Productivity

• The Revised Q4 Unit Labor Costs

• The January Factor Orders