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by Vista Partners LLC December 5, 2025

AI, Restructuring and 1.1 Million Lost Jobs: Inside America’s 2025 Layoff Cycle -( $SPY $QQQ $DIA )

U.S. employers have announced roughly 1.17 million job cuts so far in 2025, the highest January‑through‑November tally since the first pandemic year and about 54% more than in the same period of 2024. On Wall Street, that counts as a “labor market cooling”; everywhere else, it looks more like the economy finally reading the fine print on all those “efficiency initiatives.”

A milestone nobody wanted

Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that announced layoffs hit 71,321 in November, pushing this year’s total above 1.1 million for only the sixth time since the firm began tracking in 1993. The number of planned cuts is the highest for this point in the year since 2020, when lockdowns briefly turned “out of office” into a national employment status.

On the surface, November even looked “better”: planned cuts fell more than 50% from October’s elevated levels, but that is a bit like saying the fire is under control because only half the building is still burning.

Sectors learning to travel light

Technology companies once again lead the pink‑slip league tables, with more than 150,000 announced job cuts through November as firms unwind the hiring binge of the pandemic and reorganize around automation. Retail, services and telecommunications have also taken a conspicuous hit, with telecom layoffs jumping more than 250% from a year earlier after large cuts at a major carrier.

Government‑related cuts tied to the new Department of Government Efficiency and its downstream effects on contractors and grant recipients have added another large pocket of job losses, proving that “efficiency” can be remarkably labor‑intensive.

Reasons: AI, tariffs and old‑fashioned belt‑tightening

Corporate restructuring remains the single most common explanation in Challenger’s spreadsheets, a catch‑all that typically covers everything from merger clean‑up to the sudden realization that margins look better without people. Market and economic conditions, including weaker consumer and corporate spending, account for another large block of cuts as companies prepare for a slower 2026.

Artificial intelligence, the newest character in the layoff drama, is cited in more than 50,000 planned job cuts this year as employers automate routine functions and experiment with smaller human teams. Tariffs and trade frictions, meanwhile, have triggered almost 8,000 cuts, reminding workers that geopolitics can be hazardous to paychecks even when demand at home looks reasonably steady.

A split‑screen labor market

The spike in planned layoffs contrasts with still‑muted readings in traditional labor indicators, including weekly jobless claims that recently fell to their lowest level in more than three years. Private payroll data for November even showed overall job losses in the small‑business sector, suggesting that hiring engines are downshifting before the official unemployment rate fully reflects the change.

For now, the labor market resembles a plane that is losing altitude while the “fasten seat belt” sign remains politely off: passengers sense the drop, but the cockpit insists everything is proceeding according to plan.

What it means for workers and the Fed

For displaced workers, the numbers point to a tougher search than in recent years; Challenger notes that people laid off in 2025 are taking longer to land comparable positions as fewer employers announce large‑scale hiring plans. Planned hiring through November is down more than a third from last year, suggesting fewer soft landings just as the layoff wave crests.

At the policy level, the rise in job cuts will feed into Federal Reserve debates over how quickly to ease interest rates, with a weakening job market complicating efforts to keep inflation contained without engineering a deeper downturn. If the era of “labor shortages” defined the early 2020s, 2025 is shaping up as the year companies rediscovered an older tradition: solving for earnings first and explaining the human cost later.

The Sources…

[1] Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 pandemic, Challenger says https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-year-top-1point1-million-the-most-since-2020-when-pandemic-hit-challenger-says.html
[2] US planned job cuts fall 53% in November, Challenger says https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-planned-job-cuts-fall-53-november-challenger-says-2025-12-04/
[3] Challenger Report: 71,321 Job Cuts on Restructurings, Closings, Economy https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-71321-job-cuts-on-restructurings-closings-economy/
[4] US layoffs soar past 1.1M in 2025, highest level since the pandemic https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-layoffs-soar-past-1-1m-2025-highest-level-since-pandemic
[5] [PDF] CHALLENGER REPORT November 2025 https://www.challengergray.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Challenger-Report-November-2025.pdf
[6] October Challenger Report: 153,074 Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AI https://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/
[7] Employers have cut 1.1 million jobs this year. Here’s what’s behind the wave of layoffs. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/employers-cut-1-1-million-jobs-2025-why-layoffs-rising/
[8] DOGE Impact, AI Among Top Reasons For Job Cuts In 2025 https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/layoff-announcements-cross-1-1-million-november-doge-ai-among-top-reasons/cLILyGnRESF
[9] Layoffs so far in 2025 highest since 2020: Research https://thehill.com/business/5633232-2025-layoffs-highs-report/
[10] Weakening job market weighs on Fed’s next vote on interest rates https://cbsaustin.com/news/nation-world/weakening-job-market-weighs-on-feds-next-vote-on-interest-rates-american-worker-tariff-scott-bessent-jerome-powell-kevin-hassett
[11] Definitive layoff report reveals ‘DOGE impact’ on labor market – Fortune https://fortune.com/2025/11/06/how-many-layoffs-doge-impact-job-cuts-ai-impact/
[12] Private Employers Cut Jobs in November, the Latest Sign of a Slowdown https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/business/jobs-adp-economy.html
[13] A first look at November hiring shows the private sector lost 32,000 jobs https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/03/economy/us-adp-private-jobs-report-november
[14] Ranked: U.S. Job Cuts by Industry in 2025 https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-u-s-job-cuts-by-industry-in-2025/
[15] United States Challenger Job Cuts – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/challenger-job-cuts
[16] Layoff announcements hit the highest level since the pandemic https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/layoffs-highest-since-pandemic-challenger-rcna247351
[17] Layoff tsunami hits US as 71,000 jobs slashed in November: 2025 becomes first 1.1 million+ cut year since https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/us-layoffs-2025-layoff-tsunami-hits-us-as-71000-jobs-slashed-in-november-2025-becomes-first-1-1-million-cut-year-since-pandemic/articleshow/125769872.cms
[18] U.S. companies have announced over 1.1 million layoffs in 2025 … https://www.facebook.com/meidastouch/posts/news-us-companies-have-announced-over-11-million-layoffs-in-2025-the-highest-tot/1182000454121556/
[19] Challenger: 2025 layoffs hit 1M highest since pandemic https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/challenger-2025-layoffs-hit-1m-153229027.html
[20] The Challenger Report Archives – Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. https://www.challengergray.com/blog/category/job-cuts-report/

by Vista Partners LLC December 5, 2025

Data Centers Want Megawatts, Not Promises: Inside Oklo’s High‑Voltage Tie‑Up With Siemens Energy – ( $OKLO )

Oklo’s (OKLO) new deal with Siemens Energy pushes its first Aurora advanced reactor a step closer to reality, while signaling how old-line turbine engineering and Silicon Valley-style nuclear optimism may yet learn to share a term sheet. For investors, the contract is less about bolts and blades than about de‑risking timelines in a market where data centers now treat megawatts the way start‑ups once treated office snacks: there can never be too many.

A reactor meets a turbine

Oklo has signed a binding contract with Siemens Energy to design and deliver the power conversion system for its Aurora powerhouse, a sodium‑cooled fast reactor planned for Idaho National Laboratory. The agreement authorizes Siemens to start detailed engineering and layout for a condensing SST‑600 steam turbine, an SGen‑100A industrial generator, and auxiliary systems, effectively locking in one of the project’s most important long‑lead procurement items.

Under the deal, Siemens will begin early procurement and manufacturing for the steam‑side equipment, allowing Oklo to move from slide deck to steel on a schedule that investors can actually model. With fuel and site for the Aurora‑INL project already allocated, the turbine‑generator package becomes the missing industrial Lego that turns a novel reactor design into something that resembles a power plant rather than a conference keynote.

Why this matters for advanced nuclear

For the broader advanced nuclear sector, the choice to pair a first‑of‑a‑kind reactor with off‑the‑shelf turbine technology is a quiet rebellion against the industry’s tradition of customizing everything and delivering nothing on time. Oklo argues that its inherent safety features let it use proven commercial equipment, shortening timelines, lowering costs, and converting “advanced fission” from an R&D slogan into a deployable product aimed squarely at large power users.

The partnership also helps soothe a major investor anxiety: supply‑chain risk in a world that has watched too many nuclear projects become case studies in cost inflation. By leaning on Siemens’ global manufacturing footprint for turbines and generators, Oklo gains a de facto third‑party validation of its execution plan, while Siemens gets a front‑row seat in what could become a repeatable template for small, factory‑style reactors.

Data centers, grid strain, and the Aurora pitch

Oklo has disclosed nonbinding commitments for several gigawatts of future supply to data center customers, suggesting that its 75‑megawatt Aurora units are being marketed less like traditional plants and more like bespoke power appliances for compute‑hungry operators. With North American reliability assessments warning of elevated risk during extreme conditions, a compact, dispatchable nuclear source starts to look less like a science project and more like insurance against both blackouts and awkward quarterly earnings calls.

In that light, the Siemens contract does double duty: it is a key technical milestone and a marketing document aimed at boards and credit committees weighing long‑term power contracts. The early market reaction—Oklo’s shares jumping after the announcement—suggests investors prefer concrete contracts for turbines and generators over yet another artist’s rendering of a glowing campus surrounded by pine trees.

Old energy, new narrative

For Siemens Energy, the arrangement offers something increasingly precious in the power business: growth without having to reinvent physics. By slotting familiar SST‑600 and SGen‑100A hardware into a new reactor architecture, the company extends the life of its turbine franchise into a world that keeps promising to go “post‑thermal” and then quietly ordering more steam cycles.

Oklo, for its part, can claim that it has graduated from memorandums of understanding and preferred‑supplier fanfare to a binding equipment contract, a subtle but important rite of passage in project finance. If the Aurora‑INL unit hits its targeted late‑decade operation window, this deal may be remembered as the moment advanced nuclear stopped being primarily a lobbying effort and started looking, inconveniently enough, like a business.

The Sources…

by Vista Partners LLC December 4, 2025

Nasdaq Climbs, Russell Roars: Inside Today’s Market Move, Fed Countdown, and Trade Tensions – Dec. 4, 2025 -( $AVGO $MODD $MTWO $NVDA $OKLO $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $SOAR $TSLA Rise!)

Wall Street tiptoed into Thursday’s close with the air of a market that would very much like to keep making new highs, just not all at once. The S&P 500 inched higher, the Nasdaq put in a slightly stronger showing, the Dow lagged, and small caps quietly stole the scene again, as investors balanced firm macro data, noisy tariff headlines, and a Fed that is very much “on deck” for next week.

Indexes and macro tone

The S&P 500 added about 0.11% to finish near 6,857.12, while the Nasdaq rose roughly 0.22% to 23,505.14, keeping both large-cap benchmarks hovering just below record territory. The Dow slipped about 0.07% to around 47,850.94, even as the Russell 2000 climbed roughly 0.76% to near 2,531.16, extending a stretch of record closes for small caps and underscoring a continued broadening of the rally.

On the macro front, jobless claims remain pinned near multi‑year lows, reinforcing a picture of a labor market that is softening gently rather than cracking, with late‑November initial claims dropping toward the lowest levels since 2022. That resilience has allowed markets to focus less on recession scare stories and more on the timing and scale of the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Fed, yields, and tariffs

Treasury yields were little changed to modestly higher along the curve, with the 10‑year benchmark holding just above 4.102% & the 2-yr at 3.531%, keeping the curve still inverted but less dramatically than earlier this year. Markets are now squarely trained on the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, where policymakers will release their next decision and projections on December 10 in the afternoon, and futures continue to lean toward a 2026‑style easing path rather than fresh tightening.

Tariff politics re‑entered center stage as U.S. officials signaled that President Donald Trump is weighing whether to start the process of withdrawing from the USMCA trade pact, even as the administration simultaneously adjusts specific levies under the U.S.–Korea deal. The Supreme Court’s pending review of the legal basis for prior “reciprocal” tariffs has also become more than a law‑school hypothetical, with the risk that billions in duties could yet be subject to refund if the court rules against the White House.

Washington and shutdown backdrop

The federal government’s autumn shutdown ended in mid‑November, after running from October 1 to November 12, and the market is treating that episode more as a scar than an open wound. With a continuing resolution in place, investors are now watching for the next budget deadline but, for the moment, see fiscal risk as background noise compared with monetary policy and trade.

Big tech and AI complex

In mega‑cap tech, Nvidia (NVDA $183.38, +2.11%) and Broadcom (AVGO, $381.03, +.11%) remain the twin pillars of the AI‑hardware trade, now both entrenched in the rarefied club of trillion‑dollar chipmakers, keeping the sector’s leadership narrative intact even as day‑to‑day price moves moderate. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM, $292.93, -.85%) continues to ride that same AI wave from one step back in the supply chain; its shares recently traded around the mid‑$290s, up more than 40% over the past year, supported by robust revenue growth and strong technical momentum. The mood across the complex remains one of disciplined enthusiasm: investors want AI exposure, they just prefer not to chase quite as frenetically as they did in the first half of the year.

Apple (AAPL AAPL, $280.70, -1.21%) and Tesla (TSLA, $454.53, +1.74%) each drew attention from the analyst community, with fresh calls helping keep both names woven into the day’s narrative even without dramatic price swings. Did you know that Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla stated that his ‘running robot, will actually eliminate poverty‘?

Eli Lilly and healthcare

Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,014.49, – 1.85%) continued to justify its premium valuation, as investors lean into its obesity and diabetes franchise. The company has enjoyed a powerful technical uptrend, with its shorter‑term moving average holding above the longer‑term trend for months, while fresh analyst price targets around or above $1,200 per share underline how central the name has become in the growth‑at‑any‑price debate. Rather than fretting over the altitude, investors appear content to treat Lilly as a quasi‑staple of the new health‑tech regime.

Software, chips, and industrials

Oracle (ORCL, $214.33, +3.18%) remains to be somewhat of a quiet lightning rod: the stock has rebounded into the low‑$200s after a pullback from earlier peaks, even as large, out‑of‑the‑money put positions suggest some investors are hedging against the risks of its AI‑driven capex splurge. Intel, for its part, remains part of the broader semiconductor narrative but has ceded much of the glamour to Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSM, leaving value‑oriented investors to debate whether a late‑cycle turnaround is worth the wait.

Across the broader industrial and materials space, Rio Tinto (RIO, $73.73, -.74%) continues to trade as a macro proxy on China and global infrastructure spending, while McDonald’s (MCD, $308.54, +.27%) offers the kind of steady‑cash‑flow defensiveness that investors like to keep in the drawer when volatility threatens to resurface.

New economy names and special situations

Among more speculative fare, small modular reactor developer Oklo ($111.65, +15.59%) has been volatile, with shares pulling back recently after a sharp prior run as investors recalibrated expectations amid signs that U.S. policy may tilt more toward large nuclear projects. Opendoor (OPEN, $7.58, +9.22%) remains tethered to the housing and rate cycle: every basis‑point shift in mortgage expectations seems to echo through its share price, keeping it a leveraged bet on the idea that the most painful part of the real‑estate adjustment is behind us.

Palantir (PLTR, $177.92, +1.04%) remains embroiled in its own debate: is it chiefly a defense‑and‑intel contractor in modern dress, or a scalable enterprise‑software platform with AI leverage? The stock has pulled back from early‑November highs of $207.52, but still trades at elevated levels after a year of strong gains (154.72%), supported by a stream of government contracts and persistent enthusiasm around its role in the AI data‑stack.

M&A and new listings

The deal calendar remains active, if more in structure than in sizzle. A suite of SPACs and smaller offerings priced this week, including Activate Energy Acquisition, New America Acquisition I, Safeguard Acquisition, SMJ International, and Regentis Biomaterials, with deal sizes ranging from about $10 million for the smaller operating companies to $200–$300 million for the blank‑check vehicles. On the pipeline front, upcoming traditional IPOs such as Lumexa Imaging, Wealthfront, and Cardinal Infrastructure have filed to raise several hundred million dollars apiece, suggesting that the primary market is slowly thawing across both tech and industrial niches.

Strategic M&A headlines were relatively subdued today, with more activity in options and structured trades—such as large bearish put positions in Oracle—than in blockbuster corporate combinations, underscoring that boardrooms are still digesting the year’s earlier deals and the higher‑rate backdrop.

Commodities and crypto

Gold added around 0.1% to trade just above $4,237.90 an ounce, remaining close to record territory and serving as a quiet hedge against both geopolitical risk and the possibility that real rates could drift lower in 2026. Silver, by contrast, slipped more than 1.86% on the day to $57.53/oz.

Oil prices firmed intraday as crude extended a short‑term rebound, helped by technical support and ongoing supply‑side discipline and closing up 1.27% at $59.70/bbl.. Bitcoin eased roughly 01.39% to trade around $92,288.07, snapping a brief winning streak but remaining within sight of recent highs, as digital‑asset traders weigh lofty prices against a more sedate backdrop for volumes.

The week ahead

With major indexes parked just below records, the 10‑year Treasury hovering near 4%, and the next FOMC meeting only days away, markets are entering the classic “don’t touch the thermostat” phase of the cycle. Add in the renewed drama over tariffs and the future of the USMCA, and investors may find that the final weeks of the year offer less of a melt‑up and more of a high‑wire act—albeit one that, for now, still leans in favor of the bulls.

VP Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4510, +7.10%, a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today (Nov. 17) announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion. On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $5.87), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $..3836), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, reported (Nov. 13) its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and provided a business update highlighting key corporate and clinical advancements across its vaccine and oncology programs. David Dodd, CEO of Geovax stated, “As highlighted in this report, during the third quarter GeoVax continued making important progress, advancing innovative vaccines and immunotherapies that address urgent and underserved medical needs. With continued global Mpox spread and constrained vaccine supply, our GEO-MVA program represents a U.S.-based, scalable, next-generation MVA platform. Our EMA and BARDA-aligned program position GeoVax to accelerate regulatory readiness and commercial entry. For our GEO-CM04S1 COVID-19 vaccine program, recent clinical presentations validate our belief that multi-antigen vaccines – expressing both spike and nucleocapsid – are essential for breadth and durability in vulnerable immunocompromised populations. In particular, the robust immune responses demonstrated in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) patients represents a meaningful step forward in addressing the unmet needs of over 40 million immunocompromised Americans. In our Gedeptin(R) oncology program, the expansion into multiple solid tumor indications builds upon a growing recognition that tumor-targeted immune priming can dramatically improve checkpoint outcomes. We are executing a clear path to clinical and commercial value creation. GeoVax continues to execute with purpose and discipline. Our multi-antigen vaccine and immunotherapy platforms position the Company squarely within the national call to strengthen America’s health security, expand domestic manufacturing, and deliver equitable global solutions.”

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.37, +8.73%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0981, +2.91%), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.47) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s diseas. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have e96xhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $30.99) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

Nokia (NOK, $6.16) is promising investors a sleeker, AI‑age version of itself by 2028, aiming to lift profits by as much as 60% while quietly admitting that the road there runs through a restructuring zone. Nokia today announced it has been selected by KPN, a Dutch telecommunications company, to help transform the Netherlands’ core digital infrastructure through the deployment of an 800G-capable IP and optical network. This nationwide initiative, known as FabriQ, forms the ‘digital aorta’ for all fixed and mobile services delivered by KPN to millions of consumer, business and wholesale users across a range of enterprise sectors, supporting increased speed, greater resilience and supporting KPN’s focus on reduced energy use. KPN is the leading telecom provider in the Netherlands, offering mobile, fixed-line, IT and wholesale services. The company has been rapidly expanding its fiber-optic network, aiming to make high-speed broadband widely available across the Netherlands.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN, $7.58, +9.22%) a digital red estate disruptor, jumped higher once again as the belief that interest rates would be cut in December rose significantly.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.82 DoubleVerify Holdings is a software company that helps advertisers verify and improve the quality and performance of their digital ads across the web, apps, social platforms, and connected TV. DoubleVerify provides a digital media measurement and analytics platform that checks whether ads are viewable, shown to real people (not bots), served in brand‑safe environments, and delivered in the right geography. Its tools give advertisers independent, third‑party data so they can reduce ad fraud, avoid unsafe content, and get better return on their digital ad spend. DoubleVerify primarily earns revenue by charging advertisers, agencies, and platforms based on the volume of media it measures (such as impressions or transactions). Its technology is integrated with major ad platforms and programmatic exchanges, and is used globally by brands, marketplaces, and publishers to monitor and optimize campaigns.

Sources

by Vista Partners LLC December 4, 2025

Insulin Pump Innovation: How Beta Bionics and Modular Medical Plan to Win the Diabetes Tech Race -( $BBNX $MODD )

Beta Bionics’ (BBNX) latest quarter reads like a reminder that in diabetes tech, algorithms can move revenue almost as quickly as they move insulin, while upstart Modular Medical (MODD) is quietly assembling a patch-pump beachhead a few exits earlier on the growth curve. One is already fine‑tuning a commercial bionic pancreas; the other is racing to make sure the ~$3 Billion “almost‑pumpers” market finally have a device that doesn’t require an engineering degree or a private equity stipend.

Beta Bionics steps on the gas

Beta Bionics turned in a robust third quarter, with revenue jumping as the iLet Bionic Pancreas rollout continued to scale and drove a sizable chunk of sales growth. The company reported thousands of new patient starts and a rapidly expanding installed base, enough to boost confidence and support raised full‑year guidance, even as profitability lagged the top‑line fireworks.

Behind the numbers sits the iLet, billed as the first FDA‑cleared insulin delivery system that autonomously calculates every dose using adaptive closed‑loop algorithms tied to continuous glucose monitoring. In practical terms, that means Beta Bionics is selling relief from carb counting and micromanagement—an attractive pitch in a market where mental bandwidth is as scarce as reimbursement dollars.

From lab vision to installed base

A decade ago, the iLet concept lived mostly in academic papers and conference posters; today it is a commercial system with tens of thousands of users and real‑world data to match. The company positions itself as a mission‑driven public benefit corporation, an origin story rooted in parents and patients that conveniently doubles as a moat when bidding for clinician mindshare.

Recent regulatory tweaks have been more evolutionary than revolutionary, including a Special 510(k) clearance that smoothed cartridge changes and pared back redundant low‑glucose alerts—small quality‑of‑life improvements that matter when devices are on 24/7. At the same time, Beta Bionics completed a glucagon pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic study in Canada and is planning a bihormonal feasibility trial in New Zealand, signaling that dual‑hormone automation remains part of the long‑term roadmap.

Modular Medical lines up its shot

While Beta Bionics optimizes autonomy, San Diego–based Modular Medical (MODD) is going after a different friction point: people with diabetes who would like a pump, but not an ecosystem. Its first‑generation MODD1 patch pump already has FDA clearance, and the company has now validated its production line and submitted its next‑generation Pivot tubeless patch pump for 510(k) review.

Pivot is designed as a two‑part, removable, 3‑milliliter patch pump that targets adults who want simplicity—wear it, take it off for a shower or a workout, and bolus without juggling a separate controller, while still retaining the data and connectivity expected of a modern electronic pump. Modular Medical has also secured Institutional Review Board approval to run an in‑house feasibility study using saline, an incremental but important step toward demonstrating extended wear and reliability before broad commercialization.

Different roads, same destination

The two companies are not exactly direct competitors so much as co‑authors of the same macro story: automated and wearable insulin delivery is carving out ever more of the $3‑plus billion patch‑pump and broader diabetes technology market. Beta Bionics is leaning into fully automated dose decisions and sophisticated algorithms for people ready to hand over the steering wheel, while Modular Medical is building a lower‑complexity, potentially lower‑cost tubeless patch pump for those still easing onto the on‑ramp.

If regulators cooperate, Modular Medical expects to be launch‑ready for Pivot in early 2026, just as Beta Bionics is broadening its installed base and advancing toward bihormonal capabilities—setting up a landscape where payers, clinicians, and patients will have to choose their flavor of “hands‑off” diabetes care. For investors, it is an industry where both fully autonomous bionic pancreases and minimalist patch pumps can win, provided they can convert clinical nuance into something Wall Street understands best: recurring revenue, subscription‑like supply sales, and a user base that would rather not go back to injections.

Modular Medical CEO Presenting at RSVP-Only Tribe Public CEO Dinner Event, Tuesday, Dec. 9 in Atlanta (Buckhead) – Seating Available..

Join an evening of candid diabetes innovation talk, great food, and high‑impact community building in Atlanta on Tuesday, December 9, from 6pm–8pm at The Capital Grille – Buckhead (private room), 255 East Paces Ferry Rd., 8th Floor, Atlanta, GA 30305. Tribe Public is hosting a corporate‑sponsored CEO Presentation and Q&A Dinner featuring James (“Jeb”) Besser, CEO of Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: MODD), to discuss “Pivot Patch Pump: Modular Medical’s Bid To Capture the $3B ‘Almost Pumper’ Diabetes Market.”

Seats are limited; if you would like to attend—or bring a friend, colleague, or family member with an interest in diabetes care innovation or medtech investing—please RSVP by emailing Events@TribePublic.com, and the team will do their best to accommodate. For more on Modular Medical, visit modular-medical.com, and to learn about future Tribe events or add to the “Wish List,” visit www.TribePublic.com.

About Tribe Public events

Tribe Public’s RSVP‑only, corporate‑sponsored CEO events are designed to give family offices, portfolio managers, accredited investors, business owners, and media direct access to company leadership in an intimate, community‑building setting over a complimentary dinner. These events are curated from the Tribe “Wish List” process, ensuring discussions focus on companies and themes investors and consumers have specifically requested

The Sources…

by Vista Partners LLC December 4, 2025

iRobot Stock Explodes Higher as Traders Bet on New U.S. Robotics Agenda & Shorts Get Squeezed -( $AMZN $IRBT )

iRobot (IRBT, $3.39, +73.85%) ripped higher today reportedly on a speculative macro catalyst: reports that the Trump administration is preparing an executive order and broader policy push to supercharge the U.S. robotics industry, which sparked a violent short-covering and momentum move in beaten-down robotics names.

Policy buzz around robotics

News outlets reported that the White House is considering sweeping initiatives and a potential executive order aimed at accelerating domestic robotics development, including meetings between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and robotics executives. This headline flow triggered broad buying across small-cap robotics plays such as iRobot and Richtech Robotics as traders bet on future subsidies, contracts, or regulatory tailwinds for the space.

Short squeeze and penny-stock dynamics

IRBT has been heavily shorted and trading under 5 dollars, which makes it prone to extreme percentage swings when incremental buyers show up. As the robotics policy story hit, a wave of momentum and options-driven activity forced shorts to cover, pushing intraday gains into the 60–70%+ range and briefly taking the stock above 3 dollars.

Context: still a distressed story

Despite today’s spike, recent coverage highlights that iRobot remains financially stressed, with high debt, prior Amazon (AMZN) deal collapse, and questions about its long‑term viability. Commentaries noted that even after the move the stock is still at penny‑stock levels and below key moving averages, underscoring that today’s action looks more like a speculative squeeze than a fundamental rerate.

The Sources

by Vista Partners LLC December 3, 2025

From Handsets to Hyperscalers: How Nokia Is Rewiring Its Future Around AI -( $NOK $NVDA )

Nokia’s (NOK) latest press run reads like a company determined to reinvent itself as the quiet power behind the AI and 6G boom—while making sure Wall Street notices the transformation. The last several releases sketch out a telecom veteran recasting its balance sheet, its strategy, and even its cap table to ride the “AI supercycle” rather than be run over by it.

The new AI-first Nokia

Nokia’s November strategy announcement effectively rewrites the company’s playbook, positioning it as an infrastructure arms dealer to the AI era rather than a cyclical base-station vendor. Management laid out a plan to simplify into two primary operating segments—Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure—aimed at capturing data center build‑out, AI networking demand, and the long march to 6G.

The company also set an ambitious new long‑term profit target, aiming to lift comparable operating profit to a 2.7–3.2 billion euro range by 2028, up from about 2.0 billion euros over the prior 12 months, which puts a concrete yardstick under all the AI rhetoric. Investors also received a fresh set of strategic KPIs, including mid‑single to high‑single‑digit net sales growth for Network Infrastructure and higher margin targets, signaling that Nokia wants to be judged less like a low‑margin hardware vendor and more like an efficiency‑obsessed infrastructure platform.

NVIDIA muscles onto the cap table

In late October, Nokia added some Silicon Valley gloss by striking a strategic partnership with NVIDIA (NVDA) that comes with a 1.0 billion dollar equity investment. The deal pairs Nokia’s optical and data center switching technologies with NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure ambitions, giving the Finnish company both a marquee customer and a powerful ally in the race to move AI traffic at scale.

That relationship quickly turned tangible in November, when Nokia completed a directed share issuance to NVIDIA, increasing its total share count as the new stock prepared to list on Nasdaq Helsinki. For existing shareholders, the message was clear: some dilution now in exchange for a deeper role in NVIDIA’s future AI architectures, and—if management executes—the prospect of sharing in that growth rather than watching it from the sidelines.

Capital markets day, with numbers attached

The same strategy release doubled as a preview of Nokia’s Capital Markets Day, where management framed the shift around an “AI supercycle” that will reshape networks over the rest of the decade. Nokia highlighted Network Infrastructure as a growth engine, targeting 6–8% annual net sales growth from 2025 to 2028 and double‑digit growth for its optical and IP units, effectively arguing that fiber and routing are the new picks and shovels of AI.

On the cost side, the company pledged to slim down Group Common and Other operating expenses by roughly 200 million euros by 2028, a reminder that the AI story still comes with an old‑fashioned European restructuring. Leadership changes around the new operating model—including a dedicated Chief Customer Officer and a rebranded Technology Standards role—signal that standards and partnerships are now as central to Nokia’s equity story as base‑station counts once were.

5G still pays the bills

Amid the AI fanfare, Nokia’s press flow continues to feature the bread‑and‑butter 5G deals that keep cash flowing while the strategy shifts. One recent headline deal showcased an “industry first” autonomous network slicing deployment with Middle Eastern operator du, an attempt to turn 5G from a marketing slogan into a programmable, revenue‑generating asset. Another highlighted work with KPN in the Netherlands to build an 800G‑ready core and transport network, a reminder that hyperscalers are not the only ones hungry for bandwidth.

These contracts may not move the stock on their own, but they serve a useful narrative purpose: they show that operators are still writing checks for high‑performance networks, and that Nokia is selling more software‑driven, automation‑heavy solutions rather than merely boxes with antennas. In a market where investors have heard a decade of 5G promises, the company is now trying to show that the standard can be sliced, automated, and monetized in ways that look suspiciously like cloud economics.

From turnaround to test case

The most recent Nokia storyline, then, is less about survival and more about whether an old‑line telecom supplier can graduate into a core enabler of AI infrastructure without losing its cost discipline. With a fresh operating model, tighter financial targets, and a Silicon Valley heavyweight on the shareholder register, the company has given investors several new ways to measure progress—and excuses will be harder to come by if the numbers miss.

For now, Nokia looks like a case study in late‑career reinvention: a former handset icon that sold its phones, hunkered down in networks, and is now trying to become indispensable to the world’s AI data plumbing. If the AI supercycle delivers as promised, the company’s recent press releases may be remembered as the moment when a once‑familiar brand quietly re‑entered the growth conversation—this time from the server room instead of the store shelf.

The Sources

by Vista Partners LLC December 3, 2025

Wall Street Tiptoed Toward Euphoria on Wednesday – Dec. 3, 2025 -( $BTC $COST $DV $EPRX $GOVX $INTC $MCD $MODD $MTWO $NOK $OKLO $ORCL $PLTR $RIO $SOAR $TSLA $TSM Rise!)

Wall Street tiptoed toward euphoria on Wednesday as weak jobs data rekindled rate‑cut hopes, sending the Dow to another record while tech leaders mostly took a breather and hard assets reminded everyone who really owns the inflation narrative.

Indexes and macro backdrop

The S&P 500 added about 0.3% to finish near 6,850, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up roughly 0.9% (about 400 points) to just under 47,900, while the Nasdaq managed only a modest 0.2% gain as some heavyweight tech names lagged; the small‑cap Russell 2000 stole the spotlight with a rally of about 1.91% as investors rotated into domestically focused cyclicals and the growth investment became attractive. Fresh ADP data showed the private sector shed roughly 30,000–35,000 jobs in November, a “bad news is good news” print that strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut at next week’s meeting. The 10‑year Treasury yield hovered just above 4.0%, easing slightly on the day as di the 2-yr which came in at 3.494% and reinforcing the view that the tightening cycle has definitively rolled over even as the Fed remains publicly non‑committal.

Fed, tariffs and Washington

Attention is now firmly fixed on the December 10 FOMC decision, with futures markets pricing high odds of a 25‑basis‑point cut and Chair Jerome Powell slated to explain the committee’s thinking in a 2:30 p.m. ET press conference that could set the tone for early 2026. The backdrop is increasingly political: President Donald Trump continues to champion tariffs as a revenue engine even as economists question whether customs duties can meaningfully replace income taxes, and legal challenges to the latest tariff architecture are heading toward a Supreme Court test. Businesses are not waiting for the verdict, with firms such as Costco (COST, $922.26, +.02%) moving to secure potential tariff refunds and a separate U.S.–China understanding outlining mutual steps to trim some agricultural and “fentanyl‑related” levies, offering a narrow but notable de‑escalation in a broader tariff regime that still weighs on supply chains. On fiscal policy, markets continue to digest the economic scars from the recently ended 43‑day government shutdown, which federal agencies and airlines now quantify in the hundreds of millions of dollars in lost activity even as appropriations talks lurch into the next round.

Metals, oil and crypto

Gold continued to loiter around the low‑$4,200s per ounce, with spot and futures pricing implying only fractional day‑to‑day moves but a roughly 60% surge over the past year as investors hedge both tariffs‑driven inflation and policy uncertainty. Silver, having stolen the crown in percentage‑gain terms, traded around the high‑$58s per ounce after recently punching through a record near $59.70, as a combination of tight physical supply and speculative enthusiasm turned the market into a late‑cycle hero. Oil remained the designated wallflower: Crude settled near $59.10 a barrel, up .78% on the day and down more than 15% from a year ago as persistent oversupply and a subdued demand outlook offset any geopolitical risk premium. Bitcoin (BTC), by contrast, resumed its role as macro mood ring, moving up nearly to %94k again after a multi‑day rebound that crypto advocates are happily attributing to the prospect of looser Fed policy and growing institutional participation.

Big tech, chips and AI

Among the market’s celebrity names, the mood was more mixed than the indexes suggested, with investors quietly rebalancing away from the AI darlings that have led all year. Nvidia (NVDA, $179.59, -1.03%), Apple (AAPL, $284.15, -.71%), Tesla (TSLA, $446.74, +4.08%), Broadcom (AVGO, $389.61, -.25%), Meta Platforms (META, $639.60, -1.16%) and Intel (INTC, $43.76, +.67%)all spent the session trading against a backdrop of earlier analyst enthusiasm for AI infrastructure spending, EV normalization and premium handset demand, but the day’s leadership came from smaller cyclicals rather than the Large‑cap cohort. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM, $295.45, +1.15%) remained in focus as recent results showing more than 40% year‑over‑year revenue growth and nearly 60% gross margins on the strength of its 3‑ and 5‑nanometer nodes kept it at the center of every AI supply‑chain discussion, even as the stock still trades at what some houses describe as a “discount” to its growth profile. Oracle (ORCL, $207.73, +3.30%) , a later‑cycle AI infrastructure story, continued to wrestle with a narrative reset after a sharp autumn drawdown that left investors questioning how much of its cloud backlog reflects durable demand versus one‑off mega‑deals with partners such as OpenAI. Oracle reportedly received an “Overweight Rating” from at least Wall Street analyst today.

Health care, consumer and the rest of the tape

In health care, Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,033.56, -1.20%) remained the market’s quietly unstoppable compounder, supported by a still‑crowded bull camp that points to surging GLP‑1 demand, raised full‑year guidance and improving 2025–2026 earnings estimates as reasons the stock’s premium multiple has, so far, refused to mean‑revert. McDonald’s (MCD, $307.71, +2.32%) traded against the familiar “fortress consumer” theme as investors continued to treat the chain as a defensive winner in a higher‑price, higher‑wage world, even while government shutdown fallout and tariffs complicate the broader restaurant and retail cost picture. At the more speculative end of the spectrum, Opendoor (OPEN, $6.94,-.72%), nuclear micro‑reactor developer Oklo (OKLO, $96.59, +5.17%) and data‑analytics mainstay Palantir (PLTR, $176.08, +3.16%) stayed in the conversation as vehicles for housing‑cycle leverage, next‑gen energy and defense‑tech spending respectively, with Palantir in particular drawing interest from investors tracking its multi‑year total‑return profile through early December. Nokia (NOK, $6.26, +1.13%) and Rio Tinto (RIO, $74.28, +2.68%) gave international flavor to the tape, with the former still battling for relevance in a crowded 5G and network‑equipment landscape and the latter positioned as a bellwether for how tariffs and China‑related policy shifts filter into global demand for iron ore and industrial metals.

Deals, IPOs and corporate activity

The day’s deal flow leaned heavily toward the blank‑check end of the spectrum, as General Purpose Acquisition Corp. began trading units on Nasdaq under the symbol GPACU after pricing a $200 million SPAC IPO, adding yet another vehicle to an already busy late‑year new‑issue calendar. The broader U.S. IPO docket for the week included additional SPACs and smaller operating companies across energy, dental services, de‑SPAC‑type acquisition vehicles and international growth stories, underscoring that while traditional large‑cap IPOs remain selective, the market for specialized and financial‑engineering‑heavy listings is very much open. In SPAC‑adjacent housekeeping, holders of Drugs Made In America Acquisition II units gained the ability to separately trade common shares and rights on Nasdaq starting today, a reminder that even in a rate‑cut countdown, there is always room on Wall Street’s stage for one more capital‑raising structure.

VP Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4211, +6.88%, a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today (Nov. 17) announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion. On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $5.96, +2.14%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.4007, +7.77%, a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, reported (Nov. 13) its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and provided a business update highlighting key corporate and clinical advancements across its vaccine and oncology programs. David Dodd, CEO of Geovax stated, “As highlighted in this report, during the third quarter GeoVax continued making important progress, advancing innovative vaccines and immunotherapies that address urgent and underserved medical needs. With continued global Mpox spread and constrained vaccine supply, our GEO-MVA program represents a U.S.-based, scalable, next-generation MVA platform. Our EMA and BARDA-aligned program position GeoVax to accelerate regulatory readiness and commercial entry. For our GEO-CM04S1 COVID-19 vaccine program, recent clinical presentations validate our belief that multi-antigen vaccines – expressing both spike and nucleocapsid – are essential for breadth and durability in vulnerable immunocompromised populations. In particular, the robust immune responses demonstrated in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) patients represents a meaningful step forward in addressing the unmet needs of over 40 million immunocompromised Americans. In our Gedeptin(R) oncology program, the expansion into multiple solid tumor indications builds upon a growing recognition that tumor-targeted immune priming can dramatically improve checkpoint outcomes. We are executing a clear path to clinical and commercial value creation. GeoVax continues to execute with purpose and discipline. Our multi-antigen vaccine and immunotherapy platforms position the Company squarely within the national call to strengthen America’s health security, expand domestic manufacturing, and deliver equitable global solutions.”

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.26, +.80%%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0973, +353%), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.48) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s diseas. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have e96xhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $32.25) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

Nokia (NOK, $6.26, +1.13%) is promising investors a sleeker, AI‑age version of itself by 2028, aiming to lift profits by as much as 60% while quietly admitting that the road there runs through a restructuring zone. Nokia today announced it has been selected by KPN, a Dutch telecommunications company, to help transform the Netherlands’ core digital infrastructure through the deployment of an 800G-capable IP and optical network. This nationwide initiative, known as FabriQ, forms the ‘digital aorta’ for all fixed and mobile services delivered by KPN to millions of consumer, business and wholesale users across a range of enterprise sectors, supporting increased speed, greater resilience and supporting KPN’s focus on reduced energy use. KPN is the leading telecom provider in the Netherlands, offering mobile, fixed-line, IT and wholesale services. The company has been rapidly expanding its fiber-optic network, aiming to make high-speed broadband widely available across the Netherlands.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN, $6.94) a digital red estate disruptor, jumped higher as the belief that interest rates would be cut in December rose significantly.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.82, +.65%. DoubleVerify Holdings is a software company that helps advertisers verify and improve the quality and performance of their digital ads across the web, apps, social platforms, and connected TV. DoubleVerify provides a digital media measurement and analytics platform that checks whether ads are viewable, shown to real people (not bots), served in brand‑safe environments, and delivered in the right geography. Its tools give advertisers independent, third‑party data so they can reduce ad fraud, avoid unsafe content, and get better return on their digital ad spend. DoubleVerify primarily earns revenue by charging advertisers, agencies, and platforms based on the volume of media it measures (such as impressions or transactions). Its technology is integrated with major ad platforms and programmatic exchanges, and is used globally by brands, marketplaces, and publishers to monitor and optimize campaigns.

Sources

by Vista Partners LLC December 3, 2025

Holiday Shopping Hits Records Online, but Consumer Confidence Stays on the Naughty List ( $ADBE $SPY )

U.S. consumers just delivered a record-setting opening act to the online holiday shopping season, but behind the glittering sales totals is a cast of shoppers that looks more fragile than festive.

Record sales, nervous wallets

Adobe Analytics estimates Americans spent about $44.2 billion dollars online over Cyber Week, the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, setting fresh records for digital holiday spending. Black Friday alone saw roughly $11.8 billion dollars in U.S. online sales, up around 9% from last year, while Cyber Monday climbed to roughly $14.25billion dollars, also a new high. Yet consumer confidence has continued to drift lower into November, suggesting shoppers are charging ahead with holiday purchases even as they grow less certain about their own finances.

Discounts do the heavy lifting

Retailers helped pry open wallets the old-fashioned way: with bigger markdowns and a wider net. Deep promotions stretched well beyond the usual TVs-and-tablets playbook, pulling everyday staples like batteries, detergent, and cleaning products into the discount bin, a sign that deal-hunters are focused as much on keeping the household running as stuffing stockings. Mastercard data show online Black Friday sales jumping more than 10% year over year, far outpacing the low single-digit growth at physical stores, as shoppers opted to let the discounts come to their screens instead of their feet.

Buy now, worry later

If holiday sales are the headline, the subtext is how consumers are paying for them. Use of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) plans surged again, with BNPL driving over 1 billion dollars of Cyber Monday online spending and expected to account for more than 20 billion dollars across the full season. That installment-fueled enthusiasm has helped stretch budgets in the near term, but it also suggests more households are leaning on short-term credit to bridge the gap between what they want to buy and what their paychecks comfortably allow.

The quiet squeeze on households

Beneath the robust sales charts, several warning lights are blinking. Shopper surveys cited by retail consultants show a declining share of households confident they have enough savings to handle an emergency, an erosion that points to gradually weakening financial cushions even before the holiday bills arrive. Analysts note signs of fatigue among middle- and lower-income consumers, including softer discretionary spending outside marquee sales days and heavier reliance on promotions to trigger purchases. Retailers, for their part, are planning a leaner season for temporary hiring, underscoring expectations that demand will be concentrated and uneven rather than buoyant across the board.

Spend now, pull back later?

Economists stop short of reading the Cyber Week splurge as a prelude to an outright recession, but many describe a “burst and brake” pattern: shoppers rush into big promotional windows, then slam on the brakes to rebalance strained budgets. Tariff-related price pressures, the fading boost from prior government support, and rising anxieties over job security all hang over 2026, raising the risk that today’s record receipts could be followed by a chilly retail winter once the holiday lights come down. For now, though, the U.S. consumer remains the unlikely holiday hero—delivering blockbuster online sales while quietly hoping the credits on their BNPL apps roll slower than the credits on their favorite Christmas movies.

The Sources…

[1] Analysis: Strong start to online holiday shopping masks signs of a fragile U.S. consumer https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-strong-start-online-holiday-194029157.html
[2] US Thanksgiving 2025 online sales forecast to climb 6% despite tariffs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-thanksgiving-2025-online-sales-133117205.html
[3] U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online during Black Friday sales https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-consumers-spent-a-record-11-8-billion-online-during-black-friday-sales/
[4] Adobe: Cyber Monday Hits Record $14.25 Billion in Online Spending with Over $1 Billion Driven by Buy Now Pay Later https://news.adobe.com/news/2025/12/adobe-cyber-monday-hits-record
[5] Holiday Shopping Gets Off to a Good Start https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holiday-shopping-gets-off-good-152000184.html
[6] Shoppers scoured for deals online on Cyber Monday and delivered strong sales for retailers https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cyber-monday-could-break-024153170.html
[7] Mastercard SpendingPulse: US Black Friday retail sales up +4.1 … https://www.mastercard.com/us/en/news-and-trends/press/2025/november/mastercard-spendingpulse–us-black-friday-retail-sales-up–4-1–.html
[8] Holiday shopping runs on value as e-commerce leads gains https://finance.yahoo.com/video/holiday-shopping-runs-value-e-215416133.html
[9] E-commerce growth surpasses stores on Black Friday, with sales up over 10% https://www.retaildive.com/news/black-friday-ecommerce-sales-outpace-stores-apparel-athletics/806641/
[10] 2025 Holiday Shopping Statistics, Trends & Insights | Adobe https://business.adobe.com/resources/holiday-shopping-report.html
[11] Economic warning sign: Holiday jobs are tougher to find https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-warning-sign-holiday-jobs-135738772.html
[12] Holiday jobs: Why there may be fewer of them this year https://finance.yahoo.com/video/holiday-jobs-why-may-fewer-183014987.html
[13] US holiday shoppers shake off economic blues for online spending spree https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/cyber-monday-spending-us-hit-142-billion-adobe-analytics-forecasts-2025-12-01/
[14] 2025 holiday shopping insights: Retail and online spending https://www.mastercard.com/us/en/news-and-trends/stories/2025/mei-holiday-report-2025.html
[15] Shoppers spend billions on Black Friday to snag holiday deals, despite wider economic uncertainty https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shoppers-spend-billions-black-friday-170126077.html
[16] Busy holiday shopping season expected; shop local encouraged https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/busy-holiday-shopping-season-expected-045900690.html
[17] Black Friday Statistics 2025 – $11.8 Billion Online Sales (New … https://statistics.blackfriday
[18] 4 retailers set to ‘win’ the holiday shopping season – Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/video/4-retailers-set-win-holiday-190036834.html
[19] Adobe: U.S. Online Spending Hits $88.7B in Oct 2025, Up 8.2% YoY https://business.adobe.com/blog/adi-october-2025-holiday-shopping-actuals
[20] Black Friday 2025: Digital Dominates, And AI Takes Deeper Root https://www.theinterline.com/2025/12/02/black-friday-2025-digital-dominates-and-ai-takes-deeper-root/amp/

by Vista Partners LLC December 2, 2025

Can Amazon’s Trainium3 Finally Challenge Nvidia’s AI Dominance? -( $AMD $AMZN $GOOG $INTC $NVDA )

Amazon (AMZN) is rolling out a new house chip, and this one is aimed squarely at the silicon royalty that has been renting out its throne. Trainium3, unveiled this week at AWS re:Invent 2025 in Las Vegas, is Amazon Web Services’ first 3‑nanometer AI accelerator and the company’s boldest attempt yet to loosen Nvidia’s grip and crowd into the same frame as Google’s custom tensor silicon.

A 3‑Nanometer Shot at the Throne

Trainium3 is built on a 3‑nanometer process, shrinking transistors and swelling Amazon’s ambitions in one go. AWS says the chip delivers up to 4.4 times higher performance, nearly four times the memory bandwidth, and roughly four times better performance per watt than its Trainium2 predecessor, the sort of generational leap that suggests the marketing department did not have to strain for superlatives. Each chip can deliver several petaflops of FP8 compute and connect into large clusters, targeting the trillion‑parameter models that have become table stakes in modern AI.

The energy story is pitched almost as aggressively as the speed story. Trainium3 UltraServer systems are said to be roughly 40% more energy efficient than the prior generation, translating into more output tokens per megawatt and giving CIOs something to say in both the earnings call and the sustainability report. In practice, AWS is advertising up to 50% lower costs for training and inference versus older setups, hoping that cloud bills, not spec sheets, will ultimately win the argument.

UltraServers: Racks as Status Symbols

The new silicon arrives pre‑packaged in Amazon EC2 Trn3 UltraServers, dense AI boxes that are quickly becoming the new status symbol of hyperscale computing. A fully configured UltraServer can stitch together up to 144 Trainium3 chips, adding up to more than 360 petaflops of FP8 compute and over 20 terabytes of HBM3e memory in a single integrated system—enough horsepower to train frontier‑scale models or, at minimum, to impress the procurement committee.

For customers with ambitions that do not fit neatly inside one rack, AWS is extending things to UltraClusters 3.0, which can connect thousands of these UltraServers and, in theory, scale to on the order of a million Trainium‑class chips. That kind of bigness is aimed at customers training multimodal, trillion‑token models or serving real‑time inference to millions of users, but it also conveniently reinforces the idea that the only real limit to AI scale is how much of it a customer is willing to rent.

Pointed at Nvidia, Smiling at Google

Publicly, AWS insists it is still the Switzerland of accelerators, promising to keep buying “very significant” quantities of chips from Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, and Intel (INTC). Privately—and increasingly, not so privately—Trainium3 is clearly designed to be the in‑house alternative when customers start asking whether they really need to pay top‑shelf prices for every last GPU in the rack. On Amazon Bedrock, the company’s managed foundation model service, Trainium3 is already billed as the fastest accelerator, delivering up to three times the performance of Trainium2 and over five times the output tokens per megawatt, an efficiency pitch that lands squarely in Nvidia territory,

Google (GOOG), with its TPU line, gets pulled into the same comparison set, whether it likes it or not. Where Google positions TPUs as the in‑house muscle of its own cloud, Amazon is effectively arguing that it can do the same—with chips tuned for its own stack from Neuron to Bedrock, but sold as neutral ground for everyone else’s models. In this framing, customers are invited to think less about whose logo is stamped on the die and more about the price‑performance curve of training their next conversational agent or video generator.

From Frontier Labs to Regular IT

AWS is careful to point out that Trainium has already graduated from curiosity to revenue line, with Trainium2 described as a multibillion‑dollar business largely driven by a small set of very large customers. Trainium3 is supposed to broaden that base, moving from a handful of headline accounts—think frontier‑model labs and deep‑pocketed platforms—into a wider population of enterprises looking to run generative AI without handing over their entire capital budget to GPUs.

To smooth that path, Amazon is pitching Trainium3 not just as a cloud instance but as a building block for “AI factories,” dedicated infrastructure that can be dropped into customers’ existing data centers and wired back into AWS services. The result is a narrative in which AI hardware, once a specialized toy for research labs, becomes a configurable line item that IT departments can choose much like storage tiers or database engines—albeit with more petaflops and fewer refunds.

The Quiet Hedge on the Future

The long game is visible in the fine print. On the software side, AWS Neuron is expanding support for Trainium3, with deeper integration into popular frameworks like PyTorch, a bid to ensure developers are not locked out by the learning curve. On the hardware side, AWS is already previewing a Trainium4 roadmap, including plans to support Nvidia’s own NVLink Fusion interconnect, a reminder that in the cloud business, hedging is not just prudent—it is policy.

Whether Trainium3 can “crack” Nvidia’s grip on AI compute is an open question, but that may not be the only test that matters. If Amazon can persuade enough customers that custom silicon, wrapped in UltraServers and wired into Bedrock, delivers materially better economics than a wall of third‑party GPUs, it will have quietly shifted one of the most profitable parts of the AI stack back under its own roof—one 3‑nanometer sliver at a time.

The Sources…

by Vista Partners LLC December 2, 2025

Marvell Bets Billions on Celestial AI in Race to Speed Up Data Centers – ( $AVGO $BLK $MRVL $NVDA )

Marvell Technology (MRVL) has decided that if artificial intelligence is going to eat the world, it might as well own more of the cutlery. The chipmaker is buying optical‑interconnect startup Celestial AI in a cash‑and‑stock deal valued at about 3.253.25 billion dollars upfront, with performance sweeteners that could push the tab to roughly 5.55.5 billion dollars over time. For a four‑year‑old company that has raised just over half a billion dollars in venture capital, that is a celestial outcome indeed.

The deal, in Wall Street numbers

Under the terms announced, Celestial AI investors will receive 11 billion dollars in cash and Marvell shares initially valued at about 2.25 billion dollars, plus the prospect of up to roughly another 2.25 billion dollars in stock if the startup hits ambitious revenue goals through the end of Marvell’s fiscal 2029. In other words, Marvell is paying today as if Celestial is a proven growth engine, and then paying again if the engine actually turns over.

Marvell says Celestial’s photonics‑based connectivity could support a revenue run‑rate of around 500 million dollars in the back half of fiscal 2028, with a path toward 1 billion dollars annualized not long after. Even in a market drunk on AI multiples, that implies Marvell is valuing the company at several times projected sales that are still a few fiscal calendars away, a reminder that in AI infrastructure, story often arrives well ahead of earnings.

Why Marvell is buying light

Celestial AI’s calling card is “Photonic Fabric,” a platform that uses light instead of electrons to shuttle data between processors and memory, promising more bandwidth, lower latency and less power per bit in data‑center scale AI systems. That kind of optical plumbing is increasingly essential as AI clusters grow from a handful of accelerators in a box to thousands of chips stitched across rows of racks.

For Marvell, which already sells networking silicon, custom chips and optical components into cloud and AI data centers, the attraction is obvious: lock up a differentiated interconnect technology before a rival—or worse, a customer—does. Chief Executive Matt Murphy has cast the deal as a way to offer a “comprehensive connectivity platform” for AI and cloud clients, corporate for “please keep buying from us instead of Broadcom (AVGO) or Nvidia (NVDA).”

A pricey hedge against Nvidia envy

The timing also reflects a familiar form of Silicon Valley FOMO. Hyperscale operators are pledging hundreds of billions of dollars for AI infrastructure over the next several years, and each vendor with a pulse wants to be thought of as “critical path.” By owning an optical interconnect that can be embedded both in stand‑alone systems and custom AI silicon, Marvell is trying to ensure that, if Nvidia’s GPU complexes are the party, its chips are at least the valet, the bartender and possibly the DJ.

Public‑market investors, however, responded like accountants reading a poetry slam. Marvell shares fell about 5–6% in after‑hours trading as the company unveiled the deal alongside quarterly results, suggesting some concern that management is paying peak‑cycle prices for next‑cycle promises. In fairness, venture backers who funded Celestial at a roughly 2.5‑billion‑dollar valuation earlier this year can hardly be blamed for embracing such concerns from the comfort of their exit. However, MRVL shares are now trading up ~12% to there $104 level.

Startups in the age of earn‑outs

For Celestial AI, founded in 2020 and backed by the likes of AMD Ventures, Koch Disruptive Technologies, BlackRock (BLK) and Fidelity, the sale is a swift graduation from promising photonics outfit to line item on a large‑cap’s balance sheet. The company has raised more than 500 million dollars in equity across recent rounds, using the capital to acquire silicon‑photonics IP and scale manufacturing and foundry partnerships.

The heavy use of earn‑out stock tied to future revenue underlines a broader theme in AI hardware: buyers are willing to pay venture‑style valuations, but increasingly prefer to do it with options on performance rather than blind faith. If Celestial’s optical fabric becomes the de facto standard for wiring up the next wave of reasoning‑hungry AI models, Marvell will look prescient; if not, it will at least own a reminder that, in this market, even connectivity can come with a very expensive connection fee.

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