June 18, 2026 – U.S. Markets: Risk-On Returns As Geopolitics Ease -( $AAPL $BIRD $EPRX $INTC $MODD $NVDA Rise! )

U.S. equities extended their rebound on Thursday, June 18, 2026, as investors leaned back into cyclicals and AI-linked tech on growing confidence that the U.S.–Iran peace framework will stick and keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The S&P 500 climbed roughly 1.08%, the Nasdaq outperformed with gains north of 1.91%, and the Dow added +.14%, trading near record territory as energy inflation fears eased and the chip trade reignited. AI and semiconductor names led the advance, with Intel (INTC, $133.99,
(+10.64%) surging more than 10% after Washington spotlighted a reported Apple (AAPL, $298.01, +.70%) partnership—fueling a broader rally in Micron, Nvidia (NVDA, 210.69, +2.95%), AMD (AMD, $537.37, +4.86%), and other chipmakers as investors rotated back into the AI hardware backbone trade. The risk-on tone came despite a still‑hawkish Fed rate path, underscoring that for now, geopolitics and growth prospects are outweighing lingering policy uncertainty.

Macro Backdrop: Warsh Wants Markets To Lead

The macro narrative is being reshaped by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has kept policy rates on hold but signaled a willingness to tolerate more two‑way market moves by stepping away from traditional forward guidance. The latest Fed projections still point to the possibility of at least one rate hike later this year, yet Warsh is pushing markets to focus less on the dot plot and more on real‑time data on jobs, prices, and productivity. That stance is landing in a labor market that remains reasonably resilient but no longer red‑hot, with weekly jobless claims hovering in the low‑ to mid‑200,000s and showing mild softening versus earlier in the cycle. In practice, the combination of a cautious but not panicked Fed and a cooling‑but‑not‑cracking labor backdrop is encouraging equity investors to treat pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than the start of a new recessionary leg.

Energy, Gas, and Mortgages: Inflation Pressure Finally Bending

The U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the conflict is beginning to flow through to energy markets, with oil prices retreating and gasoline slipping below 4 dollars per gallon on average for the first time since March. AAA data now show national pump prices hovering just under that 4‑dollar threshold, helped by a roughly mid‑teens percentage drop in crude prices over the month as supply risk premia compress. Those moves are easing headline inflation pressure and starting to filter into interest‑sensitive pockets of the real economy, where mortgage rates have edged lower alongside reduced geopolitical risk and a modest pullback in long‑term yields. For households, that combination—cheaper fuel and slightly better financing terms—offers a small but meaningful boost to real disposable income heading into the back half of the year, bolstering the soft‑landing narrative that equity bulls are embracing.

Market Narrative: AI Chips, Peace Dividend, and a New Fed Playbook

Thematically, the tape is being driven by three intersecting narratives: an AI‑chip “second wind,” a nascent “peace dividend” from the Iran deal, and a Fed that wants markets to rediscover price discovery. Intel’s turnaround story—now reinforced by the reported Apple deal—has become a poster child for this mix, combining geopolitical alignment (onshoring and secure supply chains), AI infrastructure demand, and renewed investor confidence in legacy semis. At the same time, the easing in energy prices from the Hormuz agreement is lowering the tail risk of another inflation flare‑up, allowing growth and quality tech to reassert leadership without the same fear of a policy shock from the Fed. Warsh’s push to let data, not guidance, steer markets means that each print on jobs, inflation, and activity will matter more—an environment that tends to reward active investors and tactical positioning over passive set‑and‑forget exposure.

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VP Watchlist Updates

Smartbird, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIRD, $5.97, +8.94%), an AI infrastructure provider, today announced the appointment of Nadia Carlsten as president and chief executive officer. Carlsten has also joined Smartbird’s board of directors. The company has completed its previously announced definitive agreement to sell the Allbirds brand and footwear assets. With the transition to Smartbird now completed, the company also strengthened its balance sheet by increasing the size of its convertible financing facility from $50 million to $100 million. The expanded capital base provides Smartbird with additional resources to execute its AI infrastructure strategy. A visionary and builder, Carlsten brings decades of deep technical expertise in AI compute infrastructure combined with commercial execution across platform scaling, go-to-market, partnerships and capital strategy. She has served as a trusted partner to boards and investors, with a strong track record of building high-performing teams, stewarding capital and generating strong returns on investment.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EPRX, $6.48, +3.02%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology designed to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for applications with significant unmet need, announced (May 5) the first Eosinophilic Esophagitis Endoscopic Reference Score (EREFS) data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a part of the RESOLVE trial evaluating EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). These data were also presented at the ongoing Digestive Disease Week (“DDW”) conference in Chicago. “The EREFS is an important, validated visual index of severity of EoE disease in the esophagus of patients. It measures edema, rings and strictures and other visible markers of disease often associated with symptoms. Today’s data demonstrated improvement in two key outcomes with EP-104GI in the treatment of EoE: first, that a full injection protocol of 20 injections resulted in more pronounced improvement than a protocol with fewer injections and less coverage area within the esophagus; second, with the higher number of injections, a consistent response in both the inflammatory and fibrotic sub scores of EREFS was observed,” said Dr. James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia. “This EREFS data being reported at DDW is consistent with the improvements we have seen in EoE symptoms and tissue health (EoEHSS) and suggests improvement in inflammation, fibrosis and the associated narrowing of the esophagus.”

Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:MODD, $5.15, +15.47%), a leader in innovative, patient-centric insulin delivery, announced (June 4) the launch of PivotPump.com, a patient-focused website designed to support individuals seeking a simpler path to insulin pump therapy. This launch follows the Company’s receipt of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) clearance in April 2026 for its Pivot™ insulin delivery system. The FDA clearance represents a significant milestone in Modular Medical’s strategy to expand access to insulin pump technology, particularly among individuals historically underserved by existing solutions. The Company remains on track for commercial launch in the fall of 2026. Pivot is designed for people living with diabetes who rely on daily insulin injections, as well as those who have encountered technological, usability, or cost-related barriers with traditional pump systems. The system emphasizes simplicity and ease of use for the patient and full access to clinical information for the clinician to reduce adoption friction. The PivotPump.com website provides accessible, educational content on insulin pump therapy and highlights the Company’s focus on real-world usability and supporting patients in evaluating and adopting pump-based diabetes care.

The Sources

1. CNBC – U.S. stock market live updates (June 17–18, 2026)
   https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
2. Yahoo Finance – Stock market live: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally amid Iran deal optimism and AI chip trade
   https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stocks-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-rally-amid-iran-deal-optimism-as-ai-chip-trade-reignites-230530576.html
3. Yahoo Finance – Intel stock soars on reported Apple deal as turnaround continues
   https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/intel-stock-soars-on-reported-apple-deal-as-turnaround-continues-to-pay-off-143423447.html
4. Yahoo Finance – U.S. ends Hormuz blockade and downplays tensions
   https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-ends-hormuz-blockade-downplays-172504882.html
5. Yahoo Finance – Mortgage rates dropped this week as Iran peace deal took shape (rates today, June 18, 2026)
   https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-dropped-this-week-as-iran-peace-deal-took-shape-mortgage-and-refinance-interest-rates-today-june-18-2026-100000045.html
6. Yahoo Finance – Gas prices fall below $4 per gallon as oil loses steam
   https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/gas-prices-fall-below-4-per-gallon-as-oil-loses-steam-132647555.html
7. Yahoo Finance – U.S. weekly jobless claims fall
   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-124238903.html
8. Yahoo Finance – Warsh wants markets to guide the Fed, not the other way around
   https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/warsh-wants-markets-to-guide-the-fed-not-the-other-way-around-190514731.html