U.S. stocks lost a bit of altitude on Tuesday, as the AI trade paused for breath and investors briefly remembered that prices can, in fact, go down. But that is not all of the story as the small caps on the Russell 2000 managed to go positive on the day as the yield curve settled lower.
Major indexes
The S&P 500 slipped 0.84% to 6,917.81, giving back a portion of its recent march toward record territory as profit‑taking hit large‑cap winners.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.34% to 49,240.99, a mild pullback that left the blue‑chip gauge comfortably near last week’s all‑time high.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.43% to 23,255.19, with chipmakers and richly valued growth names bearing the brunt of the selling.
The small‑cap Russell 2000 edged up .31% to 2,648.60, a modest rise that still leaves the index up 6.71% YTD—proof that even small caps sometimes behave like adults.
Macroeconomic data, Fed and yields
Tuesday’s U.S. macro calendar was relatively light, with markets still digesting earlier data and looking ahead to the next run of jobs and inflation reports highlighted on the New York Fed’s indicator calendar. The Federal Reserve’s February schedule centers on the release of minutes from the January 27‑28 FOMC meeting on February 18, along with a steady drumbeat of statistical releases and speeches that will shape expectations but not, for now, force an immediate policy pivot. Across the curve, Treasury yields eased slightly at the front end and held in a tight range further out, with the 4‑week bill around 3.69% and the 2‑year note near 3.58%, leaving the curve still compressed but less ominously inverted than a year ago. Long‑duration bond ETFs reflected that tone, with vehicles such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF under pressure while shorter‑dated exposure was relatively stable, a neat visual of investors debating how long “higher for longer” can remain higher without breaking something.
Tariffs, trade and deal flow
Tariff policy remained an overhang rather than a headline, as investors weighed the Trump administration’s latest round of import levies rolled out in January and the growing consensus that the “tariff war” will be a running 2026 theme rather than a one‑off shock. Dealmakers, meanwhile, are growing more optimistic: retail and consumer‑facing IPO and M&A pipelines are filling again after last year’s tariff‑induced funk, with bankers at January’s ICR conference flagging a pickup in planned listings from restaurant, convenience‑store and consumer brands. The renewed activity follows a late‑2025 revival that featured large transactions such as Kimberly‑Clark’s (KMB, $100.77, +1.28%) roughly $50 billion acquisition of Kenvue and Gildan’s $2.2 billion purchase of Hanesbrands, setting the tone for more aggressive deal‑making in 2026 even if today’s tape did not feature a marquee takeover announcement. For now, the market is trading as if tariffs are a background tax on margins while M&A and IPO chatter are a forward call option on growth.
Company highlights
- Eli Lilly (LLY) stayed in the spotlight as one of the market’s premier weight‑loss and diabetes franchises, benefiting from a sustained narrative that positions it as a core health‑care compounder in an otherwise crowded growth universe. However today the stock gave back 3.9% ahead of earnings.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) continued to ride expectations for robust chip demand, frequently cited alongside Nvidia and Broadcom as a foundational AI supplier with leverage to data‑center capital spending.
- Nvidia (NVDA) remained the poster child for AI, routinely framed as the “engine” of the AI economy and a key reason why investors have been willing to look through volatility in crypto and commodities, however shares fell 2.94% today to close at $180.34.
- Micron Technology (MU, $$19.44, -4.18%) traded in sympathy falling today after a big run that leaves up 46.96% YTD along with the broader chip complex as investors bet that high‑bandwidth memory demand will keep rising alongside Nvidia’s and TSMC’s build‑outs.
- Apple (AAPL) sat in the background of the mega‑cap story: not the lead AI narrative, but still a core holding in any benchmark‑hugging portfolio and often mentioned among potential longer‑term $3 trillion‑plus club members.
- Tesla (TSLA, $421.96, +.01%) enjoyed continued support from bullish analyst commentary that frames 2026 as an inflection year for autonomy, AI and robotics, with Cantor Fitzgerald reiterating an overweight view and highlighting the Optimus humanoid program.
- Broadcom (AVGO) drew attention as a leading AI infrastructure name and, in some forecasts, a prime candidate to join the $2–3 trillion market‑cap conversation over the next few years.
- Meta Platforms (META) has participated in the same high‑end AI optimism, with analysts seeing further upside as the company monetizes AI‑driven ad tools and infrastructure investments, but fell 2.08% today.
- Nokia (NOK, $6.69, +.99%) featured mainly as a telecom‑infrastructure play in AI discussions, with some strategists emphasizing its role in enabling the “highway” that carries AI‑generated data.
- McDonald’s (MCD, $319.48, +.30%) picked up a fresh tailwind after an upgrade to “Buy” from BTIG, which cited franchise checks showing that tweaks to value and promotions are driving traffic higher again—a reminder that sometimes the best AI trade is still a cheeseburger.
- Rio Tinto Group (RIO, $96.37, +4.16%) had a very positive day and remained tethered to the metals story, sensitive to the violent swings in gold and silver that have dominated commodity headlines in recent days.
- Oracle (ORCL) fell 3.37% after unveiling plans to raise as much as $50 billion to expand AI capabilities, with shares rising in early‑week trading as investors warmed to its positioning as the “highway” for AI workloads.
- Intel (INTC, $49.25, +.94%) continued to ride 2025’s strong run but faced a more mixed narrative as some analysts warn of potential downside from stretched expectations even as the company pushes deeper into foundry and AI acceleration.
- Oklo (OKLO, $78, +5.95%), the advanced nuclear microreactor developer, remained highly volatile after its NYSE listing; recent trading around the mid‑70s underscores how quickly sentiment can swing in early‑stage energy transition names.
- Opendoor Technologies (OPEN, $5.13, +6.43%) traded against a backdrop of active prediction markets speculating on how low the stock could dip in February, underscoring persistent skepticism about the iBuyer model even as housing data stabilize.
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR, $157.88, +6.84% after this weeks earnings beat) stayed central to the AI‑software debate: widely owned after a 145% gain in 2025, yet also flagged by some on Wall Street as vulnerable to a meaningful pullback if growth or government spending wobbles.
Commodities and crypto
Gold closed at $4,979.20, +.90% as it tried to regain its composure after a spectacular boom‑and‑bust stretch that saw prices spike above $5,550 per ounce before tumbling more than 10%, with February 2026 futures recently quoted near 4,950—still elevated, but no longer the only asset at dinner‑party conversations. Silver closed at $84.67, +1.69% and remained the drama queen of the metals pit: after a 31% plunge, February 2026 contracts around the high‑$80s captured just how much speculative froth had built up before the recent washout. Oil prices traded in a more contained fashion closing up .87% to close at $63.76/bbl, with WTI futures tracking broader risk sentiment while analysts penciled in largely unchanged U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting fundamentals have not (yet) matched the theatrics in metals. Bitcoin, once the self‑proclaimed “digital gold,” stayed under pressure relative to its October peak above $126,000, with CME February 2026 futures recently quoted in the $75.5k range.
Vista Partners Watchlist Updates
Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.456), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.
On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.
On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $9.07, +15.10%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”
GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $2.63), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer.
On Jan. 20, GeoVax announced an update with the following key milestones for 2026 for Geo-MVA:
- Initiation of the pivotal Phase 3 immunobridging trial, expected in the second half of 2026
- Continued engagement with European and global health authorities seeking to diversify Mpox and smallpox vaccine supply in light of ongoing global demand pressures
- Advancement toward a U.S.-sourced vaccine supply model addressing both civilian public health needs and biodefense preparedness
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.6111, +.30%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.06, +28.48%), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, reaffirmed, on Tuesday, Jan. 20, their expectation to complete their targeted first-quarter 2026 closing timeline for the previously announced business combination, citing steady advancement through the SEC review process alongside continued progress in operational planning and integration readiness. Subject to the effectiveness of the registration statement on Form S-4, stockholder approvals, and other customary closing conditions, the companies continue to expect the merger to close in the first quarter of 2026. To align the transaction timeline with the current stage of the SEC review process, the companies have mutually agreed to extend the end date of the merger agreement through March 31, 2026. This extension reflects disciplined execution and provides additional runway to complete the remaining regulatory steps in an orderly manner, while maintaining transaction commitment and protecting stockholder interests. Amendment No. 1 to the Form S-4 was filed on Monday, January 12, 2026, to respond to SEC comments and advance the registration statement through the review process. The review timeline was affected in part by a temporary slowdown in SEC operations following the recent federal government shutdown. With the amendment now on file, the companies are focused on completing the remaining steps of the SEC review process.
On Jan. 9, M2i Global and Volato Group announced that they have entered into a strategic collaboration agreement with Australian company Titanium X to advance critical mineral development in the US. This partnership represents a significant move towards enhancing domestic refining capacity and strengthening the critical materials supply chain that underpins US industry and national security. Titanium X and M2i Global will work together on the financing, development and commercialisation of the former’s critical mineral assets. M2i Global will apply its global experience in delivering mineral projects to support these initiatives. The companies are also in talks to conclude an exclusive titanium concentrate supply agreement.
On Jan. 7, M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO , $,05) along with Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.45), a technology-driven company, announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Titanium X, marking a major step forward in advancing domestic refining capabilities and securing the critical materials supply chain essential to U.S. industry and national security.
Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.
On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.76, +1.47%), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies.
On Jan. 29, The U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared Serina Therapeutics’ investigational new drug (IND) application for SER‑252, the company’s POZ‑enabled formulation of apomorphine being developed for patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease. This clearance allows Serina to move ahead with a registrational‑intent clinical program under the 505(b)(2) NDA pathway, leveraging existing data on apomorphine while aiming to improve its dosing profile and tolerability for patients who need more consistent symptom control. In practical terms, the FDA’s feedback and subsequent clearance provide Serina with a more capital‑efficient route to a potential new drug application, shortening the distance between preclinical promise and commercial reality. For Parkinson’s patients and their clinicians, the stakes are high: SER‑252 is designed to offer a more predictable therapeutic profile, potentially smoothing out some of the daily volatility, patient caregiver burden that has long defined advanced disease management.
On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.
The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $29.40) announced (Jan. 6) that on December 29, 2025, it completed the sale of a non-core 12-unit apartment complex in Los Angeles County for a gross sales price of approximately $4,850,000. InterGroup expects to report a GAAP net gain on sale of approximately $3,509,000, which will be reflected in the Company’s Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The transaction is expected to result in federal and state income tax liability, the amount of which will be determined based on the Company’s final tax position and applicable tax rules.
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $9.80. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.
flyExclusive, Inc. (NYSE American: FLYX, $2.91), one of the nation’s largest private jet operators and a certified Part 145 Repair Station, today announced it has signed an authorized dealership agreement with Starlink, becoming a certified dealer and installer for Starlink’s high-speed, low-latency aviation connectivity system.
The Sources
- U.S. stock index performance and commentary (CommSec Morning Report):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qO64Rsl_O4[youtube] - S&P 500 technical backdrop and outlook for Feb. 3, 2026:
https://www.fullyinformed.com/stock-market-outlook-for-tue-feb-3-2026-bounce-and-higher/[fullyinformed] - U.S. equity momentum and value‑oriented commentary for February 2026:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-2026s-value-picks-stocks-113805029.html[finance.yahoo] - Weekly market context around Fed, earnings, and economic reports:
https://www.murrayfinancialservices.com/february-02-2026-weekly-market-commentary/[murrayfinancialservices] - Gold, silver, crude oil, and Bitcoin macro/technical backdrop for early February 2026:
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2026/02/weekly-forex-forecast-01th-to-06th-02-2026/240541[dailyforex] - Bitcoin technical outlook and levels for Feb. 3, 2026:
https://forex24.pro/bitcoin-forecast/bitcoin-forecast-and-btc-usd-analysis-for-february-3-2026/[forex24] - CME Bitcoin Feb 2026 futures overview and related commodities headlines:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/btcg26[marketwatch] - CME Bitcoin Feb 2026 futures prices and news:
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/BTCG26[wsj] - Analyst calls on Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Palantir, McDonald’s and others (stock‑specific news):
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/monday-stocks-from-analyst-calls-like-nvidia.html[cnbc] - AI‑related equities and Palantir/Micron/Nvidia valuation and positioning:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-artificial-intelligence-stocks-buy-2026-could-be-better-picks-palantir[nasdaq] - Broader U.S. high‑growth tech landscape including Palantir and peers:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exploring-us-high-growth-tech-173903244.html[finance.yahoo] - U.S. economic calendar for Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026 (reports and events schedule):
https://x.com/marketsday/status/2017591570523111495[x]
