Wall Street stumbled on Tuesday as investors tried to handicap tariffs, the Fed and Washington all at once, leaving the major indexes split between old‑economy resilience and growth‑stock vertigo.
Indexes: Value Holds Its Nerve
The S&P 500 slid roughly 2.06% on the day, marking its sharpest decline since October as big tech and other growth favorites bore the brunt of selling. The Nasdaq Composite fared worse, dropping about 2.39%, undercut by weakness across the “Magnificent” growth complex, including Nvidia and other AI bellwethers.
In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average—fortified by more defensive and value‑tilted names—fell about 1.76%, still painful but modest next to the tech rout. Small‑caps did not escape the downdraft, with the Russell complex dragged 1.21% lower alongside risk assets as tariff worries and higher yields pinched the appetite for speculative plays.
Macro: Tariffs, Yields And Fed Watch
Tariff drama dominated the macro backdrop as President Trump’s threat to levy new duties on eight NATO members over his Greenland gambit kept Europe on edge and investors re‑pricing global trade risk. The Supreme Court, expected to clarify the legality of Trump’s tariff powers as early as today, did not hand down a ruling, prolonging uncertainty over whether existing and proposed levies will stand.
In rates, longer‑term Treasury yields pushed toward the upper end of recent ranges, with the 10‑year hovering around the mid‑4% area as investors demanded a higher premium for policy and geopolitical risk. The yield curve remained relatively flat to modestly inverted at the front end, reflecting a market that sees little chance of a January rate cut but still prices gradual easing later in the year if growth cools.
Fed, Shutdown And Washington
Attention is already turning to the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for next week on January 27‑28, when policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady while updating their assessment of inflation and growth. The decision and statement are due at 2 p.m. Eastern on January 28, followed by the customary press conference, making next week’s mid‑week window the market’s next formal check‑in with the Fed.
On fiscal politics, the odds of a U.S. government shutdown appeared to recede as congressional negotiators unveiled a broad, bipartisan spending package to fund all remaining agencies ahead of the January 30 deadline. The House is expected to move first this week, with the Senate taking up the measure next week; passage and a signature from President Trump would avert a second shutdown of the fiscal year.
Commodities And Crypto: Gold Shines, Silver Pops, Bitcoin Wobbles
In commodities, gold closed at $4,768.10/oz., +3.76% today extending its run to record territory as investors sought a haven from tariff brinkmanship and rising geopolitical tension, underscoring lingering skepticism about risk assets. Silver rode gold’s coattails, posting amazing gains of +6.68% to close at $94.45/oz. as the precious‑metals complex benefited from both safe‑haven flows and a softer dollar
Energy remained choppy, with oil prices closing at $59.52, +.30% and firming as traders weighed supply risks against concern that escalating trade disputes could sap global demand. In digital assets, bitcoin stayed under pressure trading in the $89k range after a recent plunge tied to broader risk aversion, with the flagship cryptocurrency struggling to regain its footing in the face of tighter financial conditions.
Corporate Tape: Pharma, Chips And The AI Complex
Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,041.29, +.28%) eked out gains after the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy designation to its ovarian cancer candidate sofetabart mipitecan, reinforcing the company’s pipeline strength even as analysts fine‑tuned lofty price targets. Speculation around a potential Lilly bid for French biotech Abivax (ABVX, $118.84, +1.49%) was downplayed by Abivax’s CEO as “noise,” tempering M&A chatter in the name.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM, $327.16, -4.45%), fresh off a blowout fourth quarter, remained in the AI spotlight as management flagged “endless” demand for high‑end chips and guided to robust double‑digit revenue growth into 2026. The upbeat outlook has prompted talk of TSM as a central tollkeeper of AI spending, even as investors digest rich valuations across the semiconductor complex.
Nvidia, which continues to attract aggressive analyst price targets and praise for its enormous AI backlog, traded lower 4.32% to $178.07 in sympathy with the broader tech selloff despite a drumbeat of bullish research coverage. Micron (MU) rose .62% to $365.
Apple and Tesla were pulled into the downdraft as megacap growth came under pressure, with Tesla also facing lingering questions about near‑term demand and margins ahead of upcoming earnings. Broadcom continued to ride the AI infrastructure theme but saw its shares pressured as investors rotated away from richly valued semiconductor infrastructure names, even after recent upgrades highlighting AI as a key earnings driver.
Meta slipped 2.60% alongside the broader communications and internet complex as higher rates and regulatory overhangs kept enthusiasm in check.
McDonald’s ($302.84, -1.49%) provided a measure of defensive ballast, with the fast‑food giant’s more stable cash flows offering shelter for investors rotating out of high‑multiple growth stories. Mining major Rio Tinto ($85.68, +.65%) tracked global growth worries and commodity swings, with tariff rhetoric adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for metals demand.
Oracle traded lower as software and legacy chip names were swept up in the broad tech retreat, however Intel (INTC, $48.56, +3.34%) rose on a recent boost from optimism tied to AI‑driven foundry and PC demand following strong TSM guidance. AI‑linked names fell today like Oklo, Opendoor and Palantir as they saw heightened volatility typical of high‑beta, narrative‑driven stocks, with Palantir in particular sensitive to any shift in risk appetite around defense, data and government spending.
Deals, IPOs And The Calendar
In contrast to the market’s fireworks, the M&A and IPO tape remained relatively subdued, however GSK’s move to acquire RAPT Therapeutics for $2.2 billion reads like the opening chapter of 2026’s biotech M&A season: rich valuation, strategic fit, and just enough risk to keep the buy-side awake. It is also an early signal that Big Pharma’s deal engine, idling through much of 2025, may finally be shifting out of park.
Vista Partners Watchlist Updates
Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4739, -.23%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.
On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.
On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $9.02, +3.09%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”
GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $2.79), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer.
GeoVax is heading into the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference week (“JPM2026”) in San Francisco, CA Jan. 12-15 with the kind of narrative biotech investors typically like to hear: a differentiated platform, large funded trials lining up, and multiple shots on goal in both infectious disease and oncology. The company is leaning into its MVA platform as a potential franchise engine rather than a one‑product science experiment. Specifically, investors can meet David Dodd, Chairman & CEO of GeoVax, during his presentation at the Hilton Union Square, 333 O’Farrell Street, Yosemite A (Ballroom Level), San Francisco, CA on January 13, 2026, 2:30 pm PST.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.5225) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0481), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, reaffirmed, on Tuesday, Jan. 20, their expectation to complete their targeted first-quarter 2026 closing timeline for the previously announced business combination, citing steady advancement through the SEC review process alongside continued progress in operational planning and integration readiness. Subject to the effectiveness of the registration statement on Form S-4, stockholder approvals, and other customary closing conditions, the companies continue to expect the merger to close in the first quarter of 2026. To align the transaction timeline with the current stage of the SEC review process, the companies have mutually agreed to extend the end date of the merger agreement through March 31, 2026. This extension reflects disciplined execution and provides additional runway to complete the remaining regulatory steps in an orderly manner, while maintaining transaction commitment and protecting stockholder interests. Amendment No. 1 to the Form S-4 was filed on Monday, January 12, 2026, to respond to SEC comments and advance the registration statement through the review process. The review timeline was affected in part by a temporary slowdown in SEC operations following the recent federal government shutdown. With the amendment now on file, the companies are focused on completing the remaining steps of the SEC review process.
On Jan. 9, M2i Global and Volato Group announced that they have entered into a strategic collaboration agreement with Australian company Titanium X to advance critical mineral development in the US. This partnership represents a significant move towards enhancing domestic refining capacity and strengthening the critical materials supply chain that underpins US industry and national security. Titanium X and M2i Global will work together on the financing, development and commercialisation of the former’s critical mineral assets. M2i Global will apply its global experience in delivering mineral projects to support these initiatives. The companies are also in talks to conclude an exclusive titanium concentrate supply agreement.
On Jan. 7, M2i Global, Inc. along with Volato Group, Inc. (“Volato”) (NYSE American: SOAR), a technology-driven company, announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Titanium X, marking a major step forward in advancing domestic refining capabilities and securing the critical materials supply chain essential to U.S. industry and national security.
Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.
On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.87), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.
On Dec. 10, Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.
The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $29.55, +3.25%) announced (Jan. 6) that on December 29, 2025, it completed the sale of a non-core 12-unit apartment complex in Los Angeles County for a gross sales price of approximately $4,850,000. InterGroup expects to report a GAAP net gain on sale of approximately $3,509,000, which will be reflected in the Company’s Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The transaction is expected to result in federal and state income tax liability, the amount of which will be determined based on the Company’s final tax position and applicable tax rules.
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.54,+.48%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.
flyExclusive, Inc. (NYSE American: FLYX, $3.23), one of the nation’s largest private jet operators and a certified Part 145 Repair Station, today announced it has signed an authorized dealership agreement with Starlink, becoming a certified dealer and installer for Starlink’s high-speed, low-latency aviation connectivity system.
The Sources
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https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-netflix-01-20-2026[wsj] - Major U.S. index performance – Washington Post markets recap
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/20/wall-street-stocks-trump-greenland-dow[washingtonpost] - Real-time U.S. market data – CNN Markets
https://www.cnn.com/markets[cnn] - Tariffs and Greenland/NATO tensions – Reuters tariffs/Supreme Court coverage
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-supreme-court-does-not-issue-ruling-trumps-tariffs-2026-01-20[reuters] - Background on Trump tariff threats – Scripps News
https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/economy/stocks-in-us-europe-sink-as-trump-threatens-tariffs-on-nato-members[scrippsnews] - Supreme Court/tariff timing explainer – NorthJersey
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2026/01/20/supreme-court-tariff-decision-today-time-supreme-court-ruling-on-tariffs-today[northjersey] - FOMC calendar and meeting info – Federal Reserve
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm[federalreserve] - January 2026 Fed calendar page – Federal Reserve
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-january.htm[federalreserve] - FOMC schedule overview (2025–2026) – ABA Banking Journal
https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2024/08/fomc-releases-tentative-meeting-schedule-for-2025-2026[bankingjournal.aba] - Next FOMC meeting timing (reference) – Equals Money
https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fomc-meeting[equalsmoney] - U.S. Treasuries commentary, yields and curve – Greystone
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https://www.wsj.com/finance/jgb-futures-edge-lower-amid-fiscal-worries-in-japan-ce8b9e57[wsj] - Global risk/yields/trade tensions – Penn Mutual AM “Rising Rates, Trade Tensions…”
https://www.pennmutualam.com/market-insights-news/blogs/monday-morning-perspectives/2026-01-20-rising-rates-trade-tensions-and-a[pennmutualam] - Tariff and market reaction background – CNBC market live blog
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html[cnbc] - Greenland/tariff political backdrop – USA Today
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/01/20/trump-greenland-europe-tariffs/88261309007[usatoday] - Government funding/shutdown odds – Government Executive
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/congress-releases-massive-funding-bill-ahead-shutdown-deadline-ice-cla-rcna254968[nbcnews] - Broader shutdown/funding coverage – CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lawmakers-final-spending-package-fund-government-deadline-partial-shutdown[cbsnews] - Gold/oil/bitcoin global market wrap – Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-19/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates[bloomberg] - Bond sell-off and tariff risk – CNBC global bonds
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/20/japan-40-year-jgb-government-bond-yield-record-fiscal-jitters-snap-election-call-takaichi.html[cnbc] - Eli Lilly drug news – StockTitan
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/LLY/lilly-s-sofetabart-mipitecan-receives-u-s-fda-s-breakthrough-therapy-vi7okxd0hcse.html[stocktitan] - Abivax CEO comment on rumored Lilly bid – Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/abivax-ceo-dismisses-noise-around-rumored-eli-lilly-bid-2026-01-20[reuters] - LLY rating/target update – GuruFocus (Guggenheim note summary)
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/6400829/lly-guggenheim-lowers-price-target-while-maintaining-buy-rating-lly-stock-news[gurufocus] - TSMC AI demand and record Q4 – Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/01/tsmc-says-ai-demand-is-endless-after-record-q4-earnings[arstechnica] - TSMC growth and revenue outlook – Zacks
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2818943/ai-driven-demand-fuels-tsms-growth-will-it-meet-2026-revenue-target[zacks] - TSM earnings reaction / “top buy” framing – Barchart
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/37111188/taiwan-semi-crushed-q4-earnings-that-makes-this-1-ai-chip-stock-a-top-buy[barchart] - Cramer commentary on TSM – Insider Monkey
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-tsms-call-was-amazing-says-jim-cramer-1677650[insidermonkey] - Analyst calls on Nvidia and other tech – CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/15/biggest-wall-street-analyst-calls-thursday-like-nvidia.html[cnbc] - High-level AI opportunity discussion – Nasdaq
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-trillion-opportunity-could-send-these-top-stocks-soaring[nasdaq] - Trading/calendar reference for listings and IPO scheduling – Nasdaq
https://www.nasdaq.com/trading-calendar[nasdaq]
