Risk‑Off Monday: Small Caps Slide, AI Megacaps Wobble and Bond Yields Keep Traders Honest - December 15, 2025 -( $EVCM $IMNM $LLY $MODD $NVDA $RADX $TSLA Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street spent Monday looking like a market that wanted a holiday party but got a planning meeting instead, with all four major benchmarks drifting lower as investors waited on a dense week of data and central-bank choreography. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to roughly 6,816, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.1% to about 48,417, the tech‑heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6% to just over 23,057, and the small‑cap Russell 2000 lost 0.8% to around 2,531, a modest risk‑off shuffle that still leaves year‑to‑date gains for all four indices comfortably in double digits. Macroeconomically, the day sat in the shadow of a busy calendar, with December’s Empire State manufacturing gauge and the NAHB housing index kicking off a week that will bring fresh reads on activity, inflation, and the labor market—reports whose timing was complicated by the lingering data backlog from the autumn shutdown but which now form the final hurdle between Wall Street and its hopes for a clean year‑end “soft landing” narrative.

Policy and rates

On the policy front, the bond market quietly reminded everyone that interest rates still write the subtitles for every equity move, with the 10‑year Treasury yield edging lower to 4.182% and the curve retaining a modest steepening bias as investors price a slower but still supportive path of Fed cuts into 2026. The 2-year closed lower at 3.514%. The Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut earlier this month and its projections for at least one more reduction next year continue to underpin the view that policy has pivoted from headwind to cautious tailwind, even as officials fan out on the speaking circuit this week to argue over just how many cuts the economy deserves. In Washington, the seven‑week government shutdown that ended in mid‑November remains a scar rather than an open wound, depressing earlier sentiment and delaying data releases but no longer posing an immediate cliffhanger for risk assets, while tariff policy remains a slow‑burn source of uncertainty as higher and less predictable trade costs continue to weigh on manufacturing surveys and business investment plans.

Mega‑caps and AI names

In single‑stock land, the usual pantheon of market‑moving names again provided most of the intraday drama, with the AI and megacap complex still digesting a bruising recent pullback. Tesla (TSLA, $475.31, +3.56%) jumped today on the latest robotaxi milestone. NVIDIA (NVDA) closed in green territory at $176.29, +.73%, Broadcom (AVGO, $339.81, -5.59%) and Oracle (ORCL, $184.92, -2.66%) fell. Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,062.19, +3.38%), meanwhile, remained very much the market’s chosen avatar for obesity economics, with investors watching for any fresh updates on its weight‑loss and diabetes franchises/More cyclical or idiosyncratic names such as McDonald’s (MCD, $318.73, +.63%) & Rio Tinto (RIO, $75.82, +.21%), traded more as barometers of consumer resilience, commodity demand, infrastructure build‑out and housing‑linked risk appetite than as standalone macro catalysts.

Positive Results

Immunome, Inc. (Nasdaq: IMNM, $22.64, +15.69%), a biotechnology company committed to developing first-in-class and best-in-class targeted cancer therapies, today announced positive topline results from the global pivotal Phase 3 RINGSIDE trial of varegacestat, an investigational, oral, once-daily gamma secretase inhibitor (GSI), in patients with progressing desmoid tumors. The trial met its primary endpoint of improving progression-free survival, demonstrating a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement vs. placebo, with an 84% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.071, 0.375; p<0.0001). The confirmed objective response rate (ORR) based on RECIST v1.1 was 56% with varegacestat vs. 9% with placebo (p<0.0001), as assessed by blinded independent central review. In an exploratory analysis, varegacestat demonstrated a median best change in tumor volume of -83% vs. +11% with placebo, as assessed by blinded independent central review. In addition, the trial met all key secondary endpoints, with varegacestat achieving statistically significant improvements vs. placebo in landmark tumor volume reduction and worst pain intensity.

Commodities and crypto

Across the cross‑asset scoreboard, Monday’s price action looked more like a quiet re‑marking of expectations than a full‑blown regime change. Gold hovered above the 4,300 mark per ounce closing art $4,303.90, silver traced the low‑60s closing at $62.86, +2.44%, and crude oil closed at $56.68/bbl, -1.32%, collectively signaling a market that is mildly concerned about growth, inflation, and geopolitics but not convinced enough to pay up aggressively for hedges. Bitcoin ($86,265, -4.6%) for its part, continued to behave like the loudest attendee at a macro seminar, trading well below recent highs yet still elevated enough to keep crypto in the conversation, its volatility increasingly tied to shifting assumptions about real yields and liquidity rather than to token‑specific narratives.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3698, +6.97 after popping to $.4198 dur)ing intraday trading, a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $6.16), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.3331), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 15) the publication of interim Phase 2 clinical data on its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The Research Letter in the British Journal of Haematology reports that GEO-CM04S1 met the study’s primary immunologic endpoint, generating significantly stronger and more durable SARS-CoV-2–specific T-cell responses than BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) – a population known for poor vaccine responsiveness.

On Dec. 10, GOVX announced that to help close the gap between ambition and execution, they have expanded its Scientific Advisory Board with a cluster of internationally recognized specialists whose day jobs read like the acknowledgments section of a pandemic playbook. The newly highlighted lineup features Professor Teresa Lambe, Calleva Head of Vaccine Immunology at the Oxford Vaccine Group and a principal architect of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine; Dr. Alessandro Sette of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, a leading T‑cell and immune-correlates researcher; Professor Lance Turtle of the University of Liverpool, a clinician-scientist in viral pathogenesis and long-term immunity; Professor Thushan I. de Silva of the University of Sheffield, an authority on viral evolution and population-level vaccine responses; and Dr. Joshua A. Hill of the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, a specialist in infectious diseases and vaccine performance in immunocompromised and transplant patients. For a company that still trades like a niche microcap, the SAB now looks suspiciously like a global advisory panel on “how to keep the world from falling apart, immunologically speaking.”

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.10) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.08), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, today announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.99), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 10, after the close,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $29.68) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.83. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Radiopharm Theranostics (ASX:RAD, NASDAQ: RADX, $10.63, +149.53%) a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative oncology radiopharmaceuticals for areas of high unmet medical need, today announced interim data from the first twelve patients in its U.S. Phase 2b clinical imaging trial of RAD 101 in brain metastases. RAD 101 is Radiopharm’s novel, small-molecule imaging agent targeting fatty acid synthase (FASN) and radiolabelled with Fluorine-18 for the diagnosis of suspected recurrent brain metastases from solid tumors of different origins, also known as the Pivalate technology.

EverCommerce Inc. (NASDAQ: EVCM), a leading provider of SaaS solutions for service SMBs, rose +10.68% today to close at $13.36.

Risk‑Off Monday: Small Caps Slide, AI Megacaps Wobble and Bond Yields Keep Traders Honest – December 15, 2025 -( $EVCM $IMNM $LLY $MODD $NVDA $RADX $TSLA Rise!)

Policy and rates

Mega‑caps and AI names

Positive Results

Commodities and crypto

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Sources

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