US stocks started the week on a constructive note Monday, July 6, 2026, with the major averages grinding higher as investors digested softer labor data, a lighter macro calendar, and an approaching earnings season under the policy backdrop of a more hawkish but data-dependent Federal Reserve.

Index moves and market tone

US equities reopened after the long holiday stretch with a modest risk-on bias as traders faded last week’s sharp factor and sector rotations and refocused on the broader earnings and macro trajectory. The S&P 500 index remained near record territory after closing last week up roughly 1.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite had gained about 2.1% over the same period, supported by ongoing enthusiasm around AI and large-cap tech despite recent volatility in memory-chip names. Volatility stayed contained, with the VIX hovering in the mid-teens and the term structure in contango, signaling a low-volatility bull regime even as options markets continued to price in moderate downside protection into the upcoming FOMC minutes and earnings season.

Macro backdrop and Fed narrative

The macro tape to start the week was relatively light, leaving markets to trade mostly on the residual impact of last week’s disappointing June payrolls report and evolving expectations for the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, well below the roughly 115,000 consensus, and prior months were revised down by a cumulative 74,000, even as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% on weaker labor-force participation at 61.5%, the lowest since early 2021. Fed funds futures are now pricing roughly one and a half hikes over the next 12 months, a sharp shift from the multi-cut bias that dominated the past three years, and investors are looking to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for clarity on how unified the committee is around this more hawkish repricing.

At the same time, measures of inflation expectations remain anchored, with the New York Fed’s one‑year-ahead gauge most recently around the mid-3% range and the three‑year measure somewhat lower, reinforcing the narrative that consumers see current price pressures as more transitory than structural. Globally, Eurozone producer-price data and Japan and China’s producer-price trends will add nuance to the disinflation story, particularly as Japanese PPI has recently accelerated while Chinese PPI has rebounded from deeply negative territory, both likely moderating alongside softer oil prices.

Global growth signals and PMIs

Purchasing Managers’ Index readings are giving a mixed but incrementally less negative signal on global growth as the second half of 2026 begins. In the UK, the composite PMI slipped to 49.3 in June from 49.7, marking a second straight month of contraction as services weakened to 48.8 even while manufacturing climbed into expansion territory at 52.5, highlighting the services‑heavy drag amid easing but still-present cost pressures. Across the Eurozone, the services PMI improved to 49.4 from 47.7, indicating the mildest downturn since the region’s recent energy shock, as firms reported slightly weaker new business but resumed hiring and saw the first notable decline in input cost inflation since last autumn.

In the US, the ISM Services index due later Monday is expected to remain in expansion territory, in line with the S&P Global survey, and will be watched for evidence that the services sector continues to absorb softer labor data without tipping into a broad-based slowdown. Taken together, these PMIs support a narrative of a cooling but still resilient global economy, with regional divergences between manufacturing and services and a gradual easing of cost pressures that could give central banks some breathing room even as they remain cautious about declaring victory over inflation.

Sector leadership and AI–chip complex

After an intense, almost parabolic run in AI‑linked names through late June, memory-chip stocks have undergone a meaningful shakeout that is now a key focal point for broader tech sentiment. One leading memory-chip bellwether, boosted by a blowout June 24 earnings release, saw its stock price spike approximately 17% the next day to a fresh all‑time high before retreating more than 20% from that intraday peak by the end of last week, mirroring a similar pattern observed in March following another strong earnings surprise. This kind of boom‑and‑fade underscores how crowded the AI‑infrastructure trade has become and suggests investors are beginning to differentiate between early-cycle demand momentum and more sustainable, cash‑flow‑backed growth.

In Europe and Asia, chip and broader technology shares staged a recovery late last week that carried into Monday’s open for global risk assets. South Korea’s KOSPI rallied 5.8% on Friday after a 7.9% plunge the day prior, driven by double‑digit gains in key memory‑chip producers SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) after reports of renewed AI‑chip partnerships with Anthropic, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benefited from strength in electric-vehicle leader BYD Company (1211.HK) and miner Zijin Mining Group (2899.HK). European AI‑linked industrials and automation plays also moved higher, with semiconductor-equipment leader ASML Holding (ASML), Infineon Technologies (IFX.DE), Siemens (SIE.DE), and Schneider Electric (SU.PA) all advancing on the back of both AI‑data‑center demand and supportive analyst commentary.

Digital assets, crypto equities, and ETFs

Digital assets were notably calmer than equities at the start of the week, with Bitcoin trading near 63,140 USD and Ethereum around 1,775 USD, posting little net change overnight. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds broke a ten‑day outflow streak last week, underscoring renewed institutional demand, with one major vehicle closing around 34.87 USD, up roughly 2.6% on the day, while a leading spot Ethereum ETF ended near 12.86 USD, up more than 5%. Crypto‑adjacent equities presented a split picture: software‑and‑treasury‑heavy Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) gained nearly 8% to around 100.77 USD, while mining names Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), and IREN Limited (IREN) dropped 7–12%, highlighting capital‑intensive balance‑sheet pressures even as token prices stabilized.

In fintech, Circle Internet Financial’s stock advanced around 4.3% amid news flow surrounding stablecoin markets, while reports that neobank Revolut is preparing to delist the stablecoin USDT in the US added another layer of regulatory and product‑mix complexity to the digital‑asset ecosystem. Overall, the asset‑class is trading in a consolidation phase where flows into ETFs and balance‑sheet exposure at listed corporates may prove more important for price discovery than incremental on‑chain activity in the very near term.

Commodities, energy, and grains

Gold prices softened modestly Monday but remained well above the 4,100 USD level, extending the first weekly advance in the metal since May as investors balanced softer inflation expectations, a weaker labor print, and lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s next moves. Short‑dated US yields still embed some probability of an additional rate hike later this year, but the combination of easing inflation expectations and a cooling jobs market is supporting a consolidation phase in bullion rather than a sharp risk‑off spike. For investors, gold continues to function as a convex hedge against both policy error and geopolitical risk, particularly in portfolios already long growth equities and credit.

In energy, benchmark Brent crude traded roughly flat (approx. $72/bbl) as markets digested increased output from OPEC+ alongside ongoing flows through key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s exports have climbed back toward pre‑war levels, and the United Arab Emirates has also restored flows rapidly after exiting OPEC during the conflict, prompting banks and hedge funds alike to slash year‑end price forecasts and reduce net-long exposures in Brent futures toward historical lows. Agricultural markets were an exception to the calm, with Chicago oilseed and grain futures jumping on concerns about heatwave-related damage to French corn—potentially affecting nearly one‑third of the crop—combined with rising temperature risks across US growing regions.

Rates, FX, and cross‑asset positioning

US Treasury markets reopened from the holiday period with modest gains, supported by the weaker June jobs report and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation expectations have eased, reducing the urgency for near‑term hikes even as he reiterated a primary focus on price stability. The curve remains sensitive to incoming data, but the blend of subdued inflation expectations and softer employment data has, for now, capped the upside in yields and lent support to duration‑heavy portfolios. With the macro calendar relatively light until Thursday’s jobless-claims release and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, investors appear content to keep risk exposure selectively tilted toward equities and credit while maintaining optionality through options and rate hedges into key policy signals.

In foreign exchange, early Monday trading featured a modest bid for the US dollar, partially reversing the post‑jobs‑report softness seen late last week. USD/JPY climbed about 0.4% toward the high‑161 area as investors weighed higher‑for‑longer US yields against only gradual Bank of Japan tightening, and Goldman Sachs lifted its USD/JPY target to 165, keeping Japanese intervention risk firmly in focus. Overall FX volatility remains contained, but the cross‑currents of diverging central-bank trajectories and evolving inflation dynamics suggest that carry and relative‑value trades may continue to outperform directional macro bets over the near term.

VP Watchlist Updates

Amwell® (NYSE: AMWL)

Amwell® (NYSE: AMWL) a leading provider of a comprehensive SaaS-based software platform for technology-enabled healthcare, closed at $9.29.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EPRX)

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EPRX, $6.52, a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology designed to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for applications with significant unmet need, announced (May 5) the first Eosinophilic Esophagitis Endoscopic Reference Score (EREFS) data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a part of the RESOLVE trial evaluating EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). These data were also presented at the ongoing Digestive Disease Week (“DDW”) conference in Chicago. “The EREFS is an important, validated visual index of severity of EoE disease in the esophagus of patients. It measures edema, rings and strictures and other visible markers of disease often associated with symptoms. Today’s data demonstrated improvement in two key outcomes with EP-104GI in the treatment of EoE: first, that a full injection protocol of 20 injections resulted in more pronounced improvement than a protocol with fewer injections and less coverage area within the esophagus; second, with the higher number of injections, a consistent response in both the inflammatory and fibrotic sub scores of EREFS was observed,” said Dr. James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia. “This EREFS data being reported at DDW is consistent with the improvements we have seen in EoE symptoms and tissue health (EoEHSS) and suggests improvement in inflammation, fibrosis and the associated narrowing of the esophagus.”

Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: MODD)

Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: MODD, $4.64), a leader in innovative, patient-centric insulin delivery, today (June 30) announced that the first patients have completed onboarding and training and are now actively using the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump in real-world settings. This milestone marks the transition of the Pivot pump from development into active patient use and represents a significant step in Modular Medical’s commercialization strategy. The Company will now begin collecting real world utilization data and user feedback to support broader adoption and continued product deployment optimization.

MODD announced ( June 26) that the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump is now shipping to physician offices for training. Upon completion of training, these pumps will be presented to potential patients in the next few days and weeks. The Company intends to expand the roster of practices that offer Pivot over the coming months. This is another significant milestone in the deployment of Pivot. Modular Medical looks forward to updating the market when these first patients are using the pump to deliver insulin. The Pivot pump is purpose-built for adults with diabetes on daily injections who have faced cost, complexity, and usability barriers with traditional pump systems. This group represents an estimated 70% of insulin-dependent adults who remain on multiple daily injections, a multi-billion-dollar opportunity within the diabetes technology market.

MODD announced (June 24) that the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump is now commercially available. This marks the start of real-world patient use, and the Company’s transition to a commercial-stage medical device company. As only the second fully electronic, tubeless insulin pump available in the United States, Pivot is designed to make pump therapy simpler to learn and easier to live with. Its removable two-part design and 3 mL reservoir, intuitive interface, and flexible, wearable form factor support everyday activities, such as showering and sports, with no battery recharging required – all while maintaining clinical accuracy and connectivity. “Reaching commercial availability is a transformational milestone that marks Modular Medical’s transition from a development-stage company to a revenue-generating commercial business,” said Jeb Besser, Chief Executive Officer of Modular Medical. “As only the second fully electronic tubeless pump on the U.S. market, Pivot is positioned to serve a large, underserved ‘almost-pumper’ population. With first shipments beginning this week, we are focused on disciplined execution, as we scale adoption and seek to build long-term value for patients and shareholders.”

On (June 4) the launch of PivotPump.com, a patient-focused website designed to support individuals seeking a simpler path to insulin pump therapy. This launch follows the Company’s receipt of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) clearance in April 2026 for its Pivot™ insulin delivery system. The FDA clearance represents a significant milestone in Modular Medical’s strategy to expand access to insulin pump technology, particularly among individuals historically underserved by existing solutions. The Company remains on track for commercial launch in the fall of 2026. Pivot is designed for people living with diabetes who rely on daily insulin injections, as well as those who have encountered technological, usability, or cost-related barriers with traditional pump systems. The system emphasizes simplicity and ease of use for the patient and full access to clinical information for the clinician to reduce adoption friction. The PivotPump.com website provides accessible, educational content on insulin pump therapy and highlights the Company’s focus on real-world usability and supporting patients in evaluating and adopting pump-based diabetes care.

Similarweb Ltd. (NYSE: SMWB)

Similarweb Ltd. (NYSE: SMWB, $6.26), a leading digital data and analytics company powering critical business decisions, announced (June 15) that it has surpassed $300 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and signed two multi-year enterprise contracts, each representing seven-figure ARR commitments. Collectively, these contracts represent approximately $47 million in Total Contract Value to be recognized over the next three years and were signed during the second quarter of 2026.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

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Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB)

Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB, $93.09), a global leader in launch and space systems and Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM, $54.85, +24.21% over the last 5-days) a leading provider of global voice, data, and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) satellite services, announced (June 29) they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Rocket Lab will acquire Iridium. Rocket Lab will acquire all the outstanding shares of Iridium common stock for $54 per share in a cash and stock transaction. This represents an enterprise value for Iridium of approximately $8.0 billion.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG)

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG), a diversified holding company with interests in hospitality, real estate, and marketable securities. InterGroup consolidates its majority‑owned subsidiary Portsmouth Square, Inc., which owns the Hilton San Francisco Financial District hotel and related facilities, closed at $45.19.

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