California drivers are discovering that “California premium” at the pump comes with a 40‑cent surprise this February, as refinery shutdowns tighten supply and push the statewide average to roughly the mid‑4‑dollar range per gallon. In true Golden State fashion, the market is responding with a mix of improvisation, imported fuel, and political theater befitting a state that can turn even gasoline into a global story.
A 14‑Day Sprint Higher at the Pump
Over the last two weeks, California gas prices have climbed by about 40 cents per gallon, lifting the statewide average to around 4.58 dollars and keeping the state firmly atop the national price leaderboard. That leaves California drivers paying well above the roughly 2.93‑dollar national average, a spread that could make even the most stoic commuter consider the merits of remote work…or a bicycle.
In metro pockets like San Francisco and San Rafael, regular gas is already hovering north of 4.80 dollars, with some Northern California communities reporting similar pain. The move marks a sharp reversal from January, when statewide retail prices had been easing toward the low‑4‑dollar range before refinery drama took center stage.
Refineries Take a Bow, Prices Take the Stage
The immediate culprit sits not in OPEC’s meeting rooms but along California’s own refining corridor, where key facilities are dialing back or shutting operations. Valero’s (VLO) Benicia refinery, a critical supplier to Northern California, is in the process of idling, adding to earlier pullbacks at Phillips 66’s (PSX) Los Angeles refinery and other facilities that have steadily eroded in‑state gasoline production capacity.
Energy analysts point to a familiar trio driving the squeeze: refinery closures, planned maintenance, and the seasonal shift toward costlier summer‑blend gasoline. When fewer local refineries are running and fuel standards are strict, the market has all the ingredients it needs to stage a brisk little price rally—no Wall Street roadshow required.
Importing Relief: From the Bahamas With Fuel
With California refineries stepping back, the state is increasingly turning to imported gasoline to keep pumps flowing, even if not exactly overflowing. Recent data show California imported more gasoline in November than ever before, with over 40% of those barrels coming from the Bahamas, an origin story more commonly associated with cruise ships than commuter sedans.
The longer supply chain is no trivial detail: shipping fuel from the Caribbean to the Pacific Coast adds logistics costs and time, which filter neatly into higher retail prices. Analysts suggest refinery closures and rising reliance on imports could tack on an additional 5 to 15 cents per gallon over time—on top of the spike drivers are already seeing at the pump.
Farmers, Families, and the Real‑Economy Ripple
While city drivers grumble between podcasts, rural California is feeling the pinch in more tangible ways. In Northern California, farmers and ranchers report that rising diesel and gasoline costs are squeezing margins and complicating harvest planning, even after stocking up on red diesel for tractors ahead of time.
In places like Butte County, regular gas is running in the mid‑4‑dollar range, with diesel near 4.76 dollars, turning every field pass and truck run into a line‑item worth watching. Households, meanwhile, face the familiar arithmetic: higher fuel costs mean less room in the budget for everything from groceries to Little League fees, a tradeoff that rarely shows up in headline CPI but lands squarely in weekend routines.
Policy, Politics, and the Road Ahead
Sacramento is hardly a passive bystander in this narrative, and not just because the state already layers on one of the highest gas taxes in the country. Even as prices climb, policymakers are debating a mileage‑based “road usage” charge that would tax drivers by the mile instead of the gallon to offset declining fuel‑tax revenues as electric and fuel‑efficient vehicles gain share.
Critics warn that layering a per‑mile fee on top of high pump prices risks turning California’s daily commute into something resembling a luxury product, while supporters argue it is a necessary modernization of how the state funds roads and bridges. The political tension has grown loud enough that some lawmakers are calling the state “at a breaking point,” linking refinery closures, shrinking supply, and rising costs into a single, voter‑tested talking point.
A Forecast With a $1.21 Question
If you zoom out beyond this month’s 40‑cent surge, the more consequential story may lie in the trajectory through 2026. UC Davis economists studying the impact of refinery closures estimate that, by August 2026, California gasoline prices could be as much as 1.21 dollars per gallon higher than they would have been absent the shutdowns, assuming no major market shifts.
That kind of structural lift would hard‑wire a new, higher “normal” into California fuel economics, leaving the current mid‑4‑dollar range looking more like a staging area than a peak. If those projections hold, the state’s love affair with long commutes and weekend getaways may encounter a more formidable gatekeeper at the corner station than even the most ruthless parking enforcement unit.
For Now, Buckle Up—and Fill Strategically
In the near term, drivers have limited tools: shop around within their region, watch for loyalty‑program discounts, and time fill‑ups in anticipation of further increases. Some Southern California promotions are dangling one‑day deals with up to 40 cents off per gallon, a reminder that even in a tight market, competitive skirmishes can still emerge.
Longer term, the combination of refinery closures, tighter environmental standards, and a shift toward cleaner fleets is nudging California toward a structural reset in how it moves people and goods—though not without some sticker shock along the way. For now, the message from the market is clear enough: in California’s latest act, the cars still run on gasoline, but the punchline runs on 40 extra cents.
The Sources
[1] California gas prices have risen 40 cents in the last 14 days https://nypost.com/2026/02/15/us-news/california-gas-prices-have-risen-40-cents-in-the-last-14-days/
[2] Gasoline-starved California is turning to fuel from the Bahamas https://fortune.com/2026/02/15/gasoline-supply-shortage-california-bahamas-shipping-oil-refineries-pipelines/
[3] California average gas prices – AAA Fuel Prices https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA
[4] Gasoline-Starved California Is Turning to Fuel From the Bahamas https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-starved-california-turning-fuel-160000840.html
[5] California’s High Gas Prices and Refinery Closures Have Real … https://californiaglobe.com/fr/californias-high-gas-prices-and-refinery-closures-have-real-consequences/
[6] LYING MAGA As of mid-February 2026, California has the highest … https://www.facebook.com/100064722214657/posts/lying-maga-as-of-mid-february-2026-california-has-the-highest-gas-prices-in-the-/1388574783309916/
[7] California Retail Gas Price (Monthly) – Historical Data & T… – YCharts https://ycharts.com/indicators/california_retail_price_of_gasoline_monthly
[8] California All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices … – EIA https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=M
[9] California gas prices have risen 40 cents in the last 14 days https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4366979/posts
[10] California gas prices expected to soar as Valero closes refinery https://nypost.com/2026/02/04/us-news/valero-shuts-california-refinery-early-as-gas-prices-poised-to-spike/
[11] California Gas Prices Set to Soar in 2026 https://caes.ucdavis.edu/news/california-gas-prices-set-soar-2026
[12] California Gas Prices Edge Higher as February Kicks Off https://www.carmichaeltimes.com/2026/02/09/562982/california-gas-prices-edge-higher-as-february-kicks-off
[13] Fact check: Claims swirling on California gas prices https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/06/25/fact-check-claims-swirling-on-california-gas-prices/
[14] Gas prices rise in SoCal. Get 40 cents off every gallon for one day https://www.aol.com/articles/gas-prices-rise-socal-40-174717821.html
[15] LA, Orange County Gas Prices Rise For 18th Consecutive Day https://mynewsla.com/orange-county/2026/02/15/la-orange-county-gas-prices-rise-for-18th-consecutive-day/
