For much of the post-pandemic era, the American job market was powered by swagger. Workers hopped jobs, demanded signing bonuses, and treated two-week notices like optional courtesies. But as autumn set in, the swagger dimmed.
Layoffs rose to 1.85 million in October, the highest reading since January 2023, and a reminder that even resilient labor markets can catch a chill. Hiring slowed, too, suggesting companies have swapped the recruitment bullhorn for a polite “We’ll keep your résumé on file.” Meanwhile, the once-celebrated quits rate — the barometer of worker confidence — edged down. It seems even the nation’s professional quitters are having second thoughts.
Economists see this as part of a broader rebalancing act. “The labor market was bound to come off the boil,” one strategist quipped, noting that while openings remain historically high, the delta between open chairs and willing backsides is narrowing. Translation: the music is still playing, but fewer people are dancing.
There’s also a psychological layer. After years of pandemic-era volatility, remote work debates, and inflationary angst, workers appear to be recalibrating expectations — not abandoning them. For employers, it’s a mixed blessing: wage pressures are easing, but so is the sense of ambition that kept talent moving between firms like chess pieces.
Wall Street, naturally, is parsing every data point for signs that the Federal Reserve can exhale. A softer labor market tempers wage-driven inflation — but only if it doesn’t spill into broader economic malaise. For now, the market’s mood can be summed up in one word: cautious. Or, as one strategist put it more bluntly, “We’ve gone from the Great Resignation to the Mild Reluctance.”
In other words, the party’s not over. It’s just moved to a quieter room.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), October release (layoffs, hires, quits, and quits rate data).
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Job Openings and Labor Turnover, October 2025 news release (PDF and HTML versions with detailed tables showing layoffs at roughly 1.85–1.9 million and changes in hires and quits).
PDF: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf[3]
HTML archive example: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_12032024.htm - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-inched-up-in-october-but-labor-market-worries-persist-152702311.html[2]
- https://www.aol.com/articles/forever-layoffs-era-hits-recession-150000238.html
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/us-job-openings-climbed-in-october-to-a-five-month-high
