In all, the final Monday of 2025 looked less like the start of a new narrative and more like a tidy epilogue: investors trimming winners, testing how far tariffs and higher real rates can bend the expansion without breaking it, and quietly wondering whether 2026 can possibly follow a three‑year run that Wall Street will be bragging about for some time. Yes indeed, Wall Street tiptoed into the last trading week of 2025 with the air of a holiday party that went a day too long—indexes off their highs, megacap tech on the back foot, and traders nervously guarding this year’s fat gains as if they were year-end bonuses already spent. Precious metals finally remembered that trees do not grow to the sky, even in futures markets, while bitcoin continued to discovere that gravity applies to digital assets too.
S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell
The S&P 500 slipped around 0.35% as investors trimmed richly valued tech and AI winners, a modest giveback after the benchmark notched record highs just before Christmas and locked in gains north of 17.41% for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.51% after touching record territory last week, its 2025 advance still running above 13.91% as investors rotate toward more defensive blue chips into year-end. The Nasdaq Composite, ever the drama major, dropped roughly 0.5% as selling in Nvidia, Tesla and other growth leaders led the pullback, although the index remains up more than 21.56% year-to-date—a reminder that this is what a “bad” day looks like after a stellar year.
Macro data, Fed, yields, shutdown
Monday’s U.S. calendar was light, with housing data and year-end positioning doing more of the talking than any blockbuster report, leaving markets focused on how Trump-era tariffs and slower growth will shape 2026. The Treasury curve stayed inverted but eased, with the 10‑year yield hovering just above 4.1% and the 2‑year near the mid‑3% range, reflecting markets that see slower growth and at least a less aggressive Fed rather than an all‑clear boom. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting already delivered a widely expected rate cut toward a 3.50%–3.75% funds range, and investors are now waiting on this week’s release of December meeting minutes for hints about early‑2026 moves—complicated by a lingering government shutdown spat that has delayed some key economic data.
Tariffs, Washington and trade
Tariffs remain the policy that never goes out of style in Washington, with Trump’s 2025 regimen keeping effective rates on Chinese imports near the eye‑watering mid‑40% range and sparking ongoing complaints from importers and small businesses about rising costs. A summer deal with Europe that slashed EU tariffs on most U.S. industrial goods while raising U.S. duties on EU exports continues to reshape trade flows into year‑end, reinforcing the sense that 2025 will be remembered as the year tariff policy turned from “temporary pressure tactic” into a semi‑permanent fixture of the global order.
Metals, oil and bitcoin
Gold futures retreated roughly 4.31%% from last week’s record highs, trading around the mid‑$4,300’s per ounce, as investors took profits after a spectacular safe‑haven run fueled by geopolitics, tariffs and nagging inflation worries. Silver was hit even harder, falling about 6.88% and logging one of its sharpest single‑day pullbacks of the year after briefly flirting with the $80 mark, a reminder that volatility cuts both ways when “store of value” trades get crowded. Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate climbing around 1.5%–2% toward the $57s a barrel, helped by tightening supply expectations and cross‑asset rotation, while bitcoin slipped less than 1% to the mid‑$87,000s as crypto bulls discovered that even digital gold can suffer a year‑end mark‑to‑market.
Mega‑cap tech and AI: Nvidia, TSMC, Apple, Tesla, Broadcom, Meta, Micron, Intel, Oracle
Large‑cap tech spent the session in the penalty box, with Nvidia more than 1% and Tesla dropping over 3% helping drag the Nasdaq lower as traders took profits after a powerful year‑end AI rally. Broadcom and other AI infrastructure names also softened as investors reassessed rich valuations heading into a week that features fresh updates from Oracle and other cloud and chip players, underscoring how much of 2025’s narrative has hinged on AI data‑center capex. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Micron—key barometers of the chip cycle—edged lower alongside the broader semiconductor complex as traders balanced optimism about 2026 demand with fatigue after a multi‑quarter run‑up. Apple, Meta and Intel all traded down with the tech complex, pressured more by macro and positioning than by company‑specific catalysts as investors marked‑to‑market a strong year of gains in megacap platforms and PC/server silicon. Oracle, which has become something of a high‑beta AI proxy thanks to its multiyear OpenAI cloud deal, slid again as the market continued to debate whether a massive backlog built on a single flagship customer justifies its earlier rerating.
Eli Lilly, healthcare heavyweight
Eli Lilly’s (LLY, $1,079.45, +.16%) shares held up comparatively well against the tech‑led selloff, with investors still digesting blockbuster third‑quarter results that showed revenue jumping roughly 54% year‑over‑year to about $17.6 billion on the strength of its obesity and metabolic franchise. The stock, which has climbed roughly a third this year and is closing in on the low‑$1,000s, continues to be treated as a quasi‑growth name in a value sector as Wall Street leans into the idea that Lilly is “the Nvidia of healthcare”—a title the market seems quite happy to award at a premium multiple.
OKLO, Palantir, Opendoor and the rest of the story
In the more speculative corners of the market, nuclear micro‑reactor developer Oklo ($74.09, -3.68%) remains a favorite of high‑octane growth investors after a torrid 2025 that saw the stock trade in the $70s and beyond, even as some analysts warn that consensus price targets now sit notably below the current quote. Palantir (PLTR, $184.18, -2.40%), long a bellwether for data‑driven defense and government AI contracts, traded weaker in sympathy with other AI‑adjacent names, as investors balanced enthusiasm over long‑term government and commercial wins against the near‑term reality of slower spending in a tariff‑hit economy. Opendoor’s (OPEN, $5.83, -3%) shares remained sensitive to any whispers on housing data and mortgage‑rate expectations, with the stock shadowing broader concerns that even a modestly lower‑rate environment may not fully offset structural affordability challenges in the U.S. housing market.
McDonald’s, Rio Tinto, Nokia and old‑economy signals
Defensive stalwart McDonald’s traded slightly lower with the Dow, though the stock still looks like a 2025 winner as investors have used the Golden Arches as a proxy for global consumer resilience in a year of tariffs and elevated prices. Rio Tinto (RIO, $80.40, -2.24%) eased with other cyclicals as metals prices came off the boil and recession probabilities tied to the inverted yield curve lingered, reminding investors that the commodity supercycle can occasionally pause for macro reality. Nokia (NOK, $6.58, -.60%) still grinding through its multi‑year reinvention in networks and 5G infrastructure, moved largely with the broader international tech tape, offering more evidence that this market continues to reward pure‑play AI and software far more generously than old‑line telecom hardware.
M&A, IPOs and primary markets
The year‑end calendar remained relatively quiet on blockbuster mergers or buyouts Monday, with dealmakers largely focused on closing existing transactions rather than announcing new trophy acquisitions in the final holiday‑shortened week of the year. However, we did discover that SoftBank Group Corp. (TSE: 9984, “SoftBank Group”) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG, “DigitalBridge”), a leading global alternative asset manager dedicated to investing in digital infrastructure, including data centers, cell towers, fiber networks, and edge infrastructure, for a total enterprise value of approximately $4.0B.
Note that in the IPO market, 2025 will already go down as a boom year with roughly 347 U.S. deals priced so far—about 55% more than by this point in 2024—while this week’s calendar features a smattering of smaller offerings and SPAC‑style vehicles on the NYSE and Nasdaq rather than marquee household names.
Vista Partners Watchlist Updates
Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3903, -1.59%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.
On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.
On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $7.73, +2.38%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”
GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.1702, -5.97%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.6796) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0795, +.76%), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.
Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.
On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”
On Dec. 18, Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.30), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.
On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.
The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $26.68) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.56, +.52%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.
Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRAX, $304.58, +13.25%), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company translating genetic insights into the development of therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders characterized by neuronal excitation-inhibition imbalance, today (Dec. 29) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) for ulixacaltamide, a differentiated and highly selective small molecule inhibitor of T-type calcium channels, for the treatment of patients with essential tremor (ET).
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