The first week of September found Wall Street in a consolidation phase, responding to clear signs of a cooling labor market and mounting confidence in a forthcoming Fed rate cut. As the dust settles on August’s sector churn, investors now look ahead to inflation, policy signals, and whether the bull market’s momentum will broaden beyond large-cap tech into year-end. Yes indeed, a weaker-than-expected labor market report deepened speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, putting a spotlight on employment and inflation data, sector rotation, and global trade uncertainty.
Index Performance
- S&P 500: Slipped 0.31% to 6,481.50 for the week, pausing after its prolonged advance to record highs.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell 0.52% to 45,400.86 as cyclical stocks struggled against growth concerns.
- Nasdaq Composite: Drifted down 0.02% to 21,700.39, held back by profit-taking in technology heavyweights and rising uncertainty in the chip sector.
- Russell 2000: Outperformed, gaining .53% as small-cap names rebounded on hopes for easier monetary policy later this month.
Macroeconomic Reports
- Labor Market: The August jobs report showed payrolls grew by just 22,000, sharply missing consensus estimates and marking the weakest gains in years.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, with revisions showing downward adjustments to prior months—the slowest three-month growth streak since early 2021.
- Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, modestly above the inflation target zone.
- Job openings fell to pandemic-era lows, and the labor force expanded but not enough to offset the increase in job seekers.
- Inflation: Weekly inflation trends held steady; services and select consumer goods faced persistent pricing pressures, and the Fed’s preferred inflation metric remained just above 3%.
- Yield Curve & Rates: Short and long-term Treasury yields both declined on the week (10-year at 4.083% & the 2-year at 3.519%), as the soft jobs data solidified expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
Corporate & Sector News
- NVIDIA (NVDA, $167.02, -2.70% over the last 5-days): Pulled back, battling sector rotation out of chips despite robust AI data-center demand.
- Apple (AAPL): Rose 3.07% over the last 5-days to new highs closing at $239.69, buoyed by ongoing strength in services, iPhone upgrades, and renewed search deal arrangements with Google.
- Tesla (TSLA): Rose 1.4% over the last 5-days to $350.84 as reported production steadied; the company highlighted new regulatory compliance initiatives in Texas as it invests in both EVs and robotics. Tesla also proposed a new compensation agreement for CEO Elon Musk potentially worth ~$1 trillion!
- Broadcom (AVGO): Rose 8.5% over the last 5-days as they reported revenue of $15,952 million for the third quarter, up 22 percent from the prior year period & a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.59 per share.
- Meta Platforms (META): Moved .18% higher to $752.45 over the last 5-days, somewhat pausing after a strong summer as investors weighed increasing AI investment against advertising uncertainty.
- McDonald’s (MCD): Advanced modestly up .69% to $314.38 as U.S. comps rebounded and value promotions sustained traffic.
- Oracle (ORCL): dropped 3.13% over the last 5-days, impacted by the rotation away from technology and concerns about cloud cost discipline.
- Intel (INTC): Fell 176% to $24.49 as broad chip sentiment weakened, though government investment buzz kept a floor under shares.
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Finished lower down 3.17% to $153.11 despite positive earnings, as investors took profits after a strong AI contract quarter and its recent S&P 500 inclusion.
- Rio Tinto Group (RIO): Rose 1.73% to $63.97, finding support from commodity stability and a positive outlook on global infrastructure demand.
Mergers, Acquisitions & IPOs
- M&A pace remained steady, with activity centering on financials, healthcare, and energy. Notable deals this week include Pan American Silver’s acquisition of Mag Silver and Apollo’s purchase of Bridge Investment Group. The takeover trend shows no sign of abating as valuations adjust.
- IPO market remained active with several small- and mid-cap debuts on the NYSE and Nasdaq. However, first-day performance skewed modest, reflecting mounting macro headwinds and increasingly selective investor demand.
Tariffs & Trade Policy
- New copper and digital trade tariffs moved forward, while tariff-related uncertainty continued to hit selected manufacturing and tech supply chains. A Section 301 investigation into digital trade with Brazil added more complexity to the global tariff landscape.
FOMC & Outlook
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps at its September 16–17 meeting, with consensus solidifying near 99% after recent job market softness and persistently moderate inflation.
- No new policy statements emerged this week, but the week’s data further cements the probability of imminent Fed action.
Commodities & Cryptocurrencies Closing Prices
- Gold: Closed at $3,639.80/oz an up +2.55% over the last 5-days and up +36.89% YTD. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose a solid 5.09% to $331.05.
- Silver: Ended at $41.51/oz, +1.07%. The iShares Silver trust (SLV) jumped 4.76% to $37.21 over the last 5-days and is up +41.32% YTD.
- Oil (WTI): Finished at $61.97/barrel, -5.52% over the last 5-days and down 15.26% YTD.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Currently trading at ~$112,060 and slightly up over the last 5-days.
