Stocks Retreat As Fear & Uncertainty Surge On Election Day, Nov. 4, 2025 - ( $AAPL $HTZ $LLY $MTSR $PAY $SANM $VIX $XMTR Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

In sum, today’s market action reflected deepening caution across asset classes, with macro and policy uncertainties intersecting management commentary for a more sober market tone. Investors are closely watching congressional negotiations on Election Day to end the government shutdown and anticipate further color from the Federal Open Market Committee in coming weeks as rate cut bets recede and leadership rotation takes center stage. Indeed, U.S. equity markets retreated Tuesday as investors weighed artificial intelligence sector valuations against broader macroeconomic risks, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.17% to 6,771.55, Nasdaq sliding 2.04% to 23,348.64, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.53% to 47,085.24. The Russell 2000 finished at 2,427.34, off 1.78% and reflecting small-cap softness after last week’s record high. Sector rotation continued, with technology stocks leading declines amid increased scrutiny on forward guidance and earnings sustainability. The markets fear gauge, CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose sharply by 10.64% to close at $19 and is now up +15.71% over the last 5-days.

Relatively recent macroeconomic reports have painted a mixed picture: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7, signaling contraction, while employment and new orders indices also hovered below 50, reinforcing caution on U.S. manufacturing momentum. Vehicle sales came in at a modest 15.3 million units, and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index dropped to 43.9, reflecting consumer uncertainty. However, the absence of comprehensive government data releases persisted due to the ongoing shutdown, stalling GDP and labor market reporting. The yield curve drifted lower today, with the 10-year Treasury note edging down to 4.087% and the 2-year closing down at 3.582% and worried market participants awaited clarity from multiple Federal Reserve speakers on the future path for policy rates.

Among key stocks, Eli Lilly (LLY) gained 1.15% to $906.86 as renewed optimism drove the sector after reports of a $149-per-month White House deal for obesity drugs and plans for a $3 billion Dutch manufacturing facility to scale oral weight-loss production. NVIDIA (NVDA, $198.69, -3.96%), Apple (AAPL, $270.04,+.45%), and Amazon (AMZN, $249.32, -1.84%) all faced some downward pressure as AI leadership valuations were called into question, despite strong third-quarter prints and the US is not interested in NVIDIA selling its Blackwell, most avcanced AI chip, to China. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies slid 7.94% after reporting robust quarterly results but failing to meet market expectations for FY26 guidance.

The week’s corporate calendar was stacked with deal activity: No major U.S. IPOs or take-private announcements emerged as of Tuesday, and global M&A headlines remained subdued. The latest development on tariffs came from a weekend summit where U.S.-China negotiators extended a truce and eased select export restrictions. Meanwhile, public sentiment reflected anxiety, with 47% of Americans now viewing the trade deficit as an economic emergency—a backdrop amplified by the Supreme Court’s review of the legality of presidential tariffs powers this week.

Commodities retreated in tandem: Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce, falling to $3,997 (-0.14%), silver weakened to $47.68 an ounce (-0.86%), and Brent crude oil declined to $60.36 a barrel (-1.16%) as OPEC+ announced a pause in production hikes and the rising dollar weighed on metals and energy. Bitcoin traded $100k amid profit-taking and lackluster momentum.

Top Performers

Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) shares skyrocketed up to 40% today, fueled by a classic short-squeeze following an upside earnings surprise. The company delivered Q3 revenue of $2.48 billion (beating estimates), and an EPS of $0.12, swinging from a loss last year. The surprise profit, strategic restructuring, and new executive appointments renewed investor enthusiasm, with retail traders driving volume to meme-stock levels. High short interest above 40% added to the dramatic move.

Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) surged by as much as 24% intraday, nearing a fresh 52-week high at $60.05. The rally followed record Q3 results: revenue jumped 28% year-over-year to $180.7 million, and the company turned adjusted EBITDA positive. Marketplace revenue grew 31%, and Xometry lifted its full-year outlook, powered by demand for its AI-driven manufacturing platform. The strong beat reinforced its leadership in industrial AI amid sector volatility.

Paymentus Holdings’ (PAY) stock continued recent upward momentum, trading at $29.46, though analysts remain cautious on longer-term prospects. Technically, it holds buy signals in the near term, but the long-term trend remains negative. Recent financials showed strong revenue growth (41.9% for 2024), earnings nearly doubled, and analyst consensus rates the stock as a Buy with a 12-month price target of $36.50.

Metsera, Inc. (MTSR) soared between 16% and 20% intraday amid a fierce bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk, with takeover offers escalating. Novo Nordisk boosted its bid to $62.20 per share, valuing Metsera at $10 billion—deemed superior to Pfizer’s proposal. Investors reacted positively to this acquisition drama, and the FTC’s early green light for Pfizer’s initial buyout plan added to the excitement.

Sanmina Corporation (SANM) rallied over 16% to a new high of $166.96 after posting strong quarterly results. Q4 revenue was $2.1 billion (up 4% year-over-year), with adjusted EPS of $1.67 (beating forecasts). Management issued robust Q1 guidance, driven by demand from its ZT Systems acquisition and cloud/AI infrastructure buildouts. Investors responded enthusiastically to the company’s strategic expansion in tech and AI, which also led to a significant boost in deferred revenue and cash flow.

VP Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology, announced (Nov. 3) the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:EPRX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 4) its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 and provided a business update. Dr. James Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated, “The compelling 52-week data from our RESOLVE trial reported this quarter further reinforce the potential of EP-104GI as a highly effective and durable treatment for eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). Our highest-dose cohort delivered the largest improvements in tissue health outcomes and eosinophil reduction observed to date, with no additional safety concerns. Coupled with the successful completion of our $80.5 million financing supported by strong life-science focused investors, we are now well resourced to advance the EP-104GI program, including through topline data from the Phase 2b RESOLVE Trial expected in the third quarter of 2026.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced that it will report its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, after the close of U.S. markets on Thursday, November 13, 2025. Following the release, management will host a live conference call and audio webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET to review results and provide a business update.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s disease. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG) reported results (Oct. 9) for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, including improved segment income in Hotel and Real Estate, increased liquidity, the alleviation of going-concern uncertainty at majority-owned subsidiary Portsmouth Square, Inc., and the Company’s return to compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements.