S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq & Russell Diverge as Fed Decision Looms, Silver Hits Record and M&A Heats Up - December 9, 2025 -( $INTC $MODD $NOK $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $RIO $SOAR $TSLA $TSM Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street spent Tuesday marking time and watching the clock, as markets drifted in tight formation ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, with just enough sector rotation and deal drama to keep traders from checking out entirely.

Indexes and macro tone

The major U.S. benchmarks finished the session mixed: the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% and the small‑cap Russell 2000 added about 0.2%. The move came as investors digested stronger U.S. job openings data and a modest back‑up in Treasury yields, a combination that suggested the economy is still running warm even as markets brace for easier policy.

The 2‑year and 10‑year Treasury yields ticked higher as traders priced the odds of another quarter‑point rate cut but questioned how generous the Fed will be with its 2026 projections, leaving the curve still inverted but slightly less so at the long end. Fed watchers widely expect the FOMC to deliver a 25‑basis‑point cut in its final meeting of the year, with the two‑day gathering concluding Wednesday and futures assigning near‑90% odds to that outcome.

Fed, shutdown and tariffs

The December FOMC meeting, which began today, is expected to produce a third straight 0.25‑percentage‑point cut, taking the policy rate to the lowest level since 2022, with markets laser‑focused on the dot plot and Chair Powell’s tone around labor‑market softness and tariff‑driven inflation. The Fed goes into the decision with key jobs and inflation reports delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, forcing policymakers to rely more heavily on partial data and market signals.

Tariff policy remained a macro wild card as President Trump defended his sweeping tariff agenda on national‑security grounds, even while floating targeted carve‑outs and potential cuts in selected categories. Internationally, trading partners continued to bristle: Switzerland had to walk back a premature statement on planned U.S. tariff reductions, while Chinese officials again highlighted the drag from higher U.S. levies even as China’s surplus swelled.

Commodities and crypto

In commodities, gold held near record territory as investors hedged the risk of a “hawkish cut” on Wednesday, with spot prices changing hands just above the 4,237‑dollar mark per ounce for much of the session. Silver stole the precious‑metals spotlight, however, breaking above 60 dollars per ounce to close at $61.17/oz. to a fresh record as traders bet on lower real rates and tight supply, leaving gold looking almost modest by comparison.

Oil prices traded with a softer bias as rate‑cut optimism wrestled with concerns about global growth and demand, leaving crude in a holding pattern ahead of both the Fed and fresh inventory data to close at $58.39/bbl. Bitcoin, after a year of vertigo‑inducing rallies and air‑pocket sell‑offs, managed a relatively calm session with prices edging 2.35% higher on the day to the $92k range, but still well below recent peaks, a reminder that the 2025 crypto rollercoaster may yet end on a lower platform than it started.

Big‑cap tech and AI leaders

In the AI and semiconductor complex, Nvidia shares closed at $184.97, -.33% as traders digest the news from Washington that the company can continue selling certain high‑end H200 chips into China, keeping a key growth channel at least partially open. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM, $303.41, +.51%) was supported by bullish analyst commentary that reiterated the foundry as a core long‑term holding, with price targets nudged higher on expectations of robust data‑center and AI‑server demand.

Apple traded modestly .26% lower as another major brokerage boosted its price target and leaned into the idea of Apple as an “AI toll booth,” quietly monetizing infrastructure rather than chasing headline‑grabbing model launches. Intel (INTC, $40.50, +.50%) once again cast as a turnaround plus AI levered story, remained in the market’s good graces after recent coverage highlighted improving earnings trajectory and its inclusion among high‑growth tech names to watch into 2026.

Platform, software and data names

Oracle (ORCL, $221.53, +.45%), spent the day in the earnings on‑deck circle, with the stock choppy but underpinned after a major bank reiterated an overweight rating even as it trimmed its price target, arguing that AI skepticism may set up a more attractive entry point. Palantir (PLTR, $181.84,+.19%) now firmly seated in the profitable‑growth camp, continued to benefit from being listed among top high‑growth U.S. tech stocks, as investors rotated selectively into data‑driven software names with visible government and enterprise pipelines.

Meta Platforms traded lower falling 1.48% tp $656.96, reflecting a market that has largely accepted its pivot toward AI‑enhanced advertising efficiency and capital‑discipline messaging, even as regulators keep a watchful eye on the company’s social footprint. Opendoor (OPEN, $7.41, +5.11%), a higher‑beta housing‑tech play, remained sensitive to every tick in the yield curve, as expectations for lower mortgage rates next year continued to drive speculative interest in a recovery of iBuyer business models.

Autos, industrials and legacy tech

Tesla (TSLA) shares rose 1.27% to $445.17 after a major Wall Street firm recently downgraded the stock to a more neutral stance, arguing that lofty multiples already reflect ambitious non‑auto catalysts and leaving less room for disappointment. Nokia (NOK, $6.18, +.49%) traded more quietly, with the market largely treating it as a defensive way to participate in network and 5G infrastructure spending rather than a front‑line AI beneficiary.

McDonald’s rose .32% to $310.79 after a string of big industrial and financial names weighed on the blue‑chip index, though the fast‑food bellwether continues to benefit from its reputation as a trade‑down winner in a still‑stretched consumer environment. Rio Tinto (RIO, $74.40, +1.89%) sensitive to both growth expectations and tariff risks, saw measured trading as metals investors weighed a resilient U.S. economy against global trade frictions and China’s evolving demand profile.

Healthcare and energy transition

Eli Lilly (LLY, $982.22, -1.54%) once again reminded the market why it wears a trillion‑dollar crown, announcing plans to invest more than 6 billion dollars in a new manufacturing facility in Alabama to produce active pharmaceutical ingredients for its obesity pill and other therapies.

Lilly also closed the books on its tender offer for Adverum Biotechnologies, completing an acquisition that deepens its gene‑therapy and ophthalmology toolkit and bolsters the pipeline behind its flagship metabolic franchise. Together, the deal and the Alabama build‑out underscored a familiar theme in 2025: in biopharma, scale is strategy, and Lilly is playing for keeps.

Nuclear, housing and other stories

Oklo ($103.93, -.65%), a next‑generation nuclear‑technology name, continued to ride the speculative wave around small modular reactors and advanced fission designs as policymakers scramble for reliable zero‑carbon baseload power. Investors remain focused on regulatory milestones and commercialization timelines, but the stock has become a favored call option on energy transition narratives.

Dealmaking, M&A and IPOs

Hollywood delivered this week’s marquee headline as David Ellison’s Paramount lobbed a 108‑billion‑dollar all‑cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, valuing the studio at 30 dollars per share and topping Netflix’s earlier mixed cash‑and‑stock deal that implied about 27.75 dollars per share. The bid escalates what is rapidly becoming the industry’s defining takeover battle of the decade, promising months of boardroom brinkmanship and regulatory intrigue as shareholders weigh a clean, cash‑heavy exit against Netflix’s strategic allure.

In the primary market, the IPO machine kept humming, with Daedalus Special Acquisition Corp. debuting and several more deals—from infrastructure plays to imaging and consumer brands—slated to price through the week on Nasdaq and the NYSE. The upcoming calendar includes names such as Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Lumexa Imaging Holdings, and Buda Juice, offering a cross‑section of cyclicals and growth stories to a market that, for now, seems willing to fund new listings at reasonable valuations.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4516,+2.15%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today (Nov. 17) announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion. On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $5.97), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.3980), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, today announced the issuance of U.S. Patent No. 12,453,760, titled “Enhanced Therapeutic Usage of a Purine Nucleoside Phosphorylase or Nucleoside Hydrolase Prodrug”, by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). The patent provides composition-of-matter and method-of-use protection for GeoVax’s Gedeptin(R) platform in combination with targeted delivery approaches for solid tumors, including head and neck cancer.

On Dec. 8, GeoVax announced the publication of a peer-reviewed article in JCO Oncology Advances, the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s (ASCO) open-access journal. The manuscript, titled “A Phase 1/2 Study of Intratumoral Ad/PNP (Gedeptin) with Fludarabine Phosphate in Subjects with Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer”, reports findings from a multi-center clinical trial evaluating repeated cycles of Gedeptin(R), a gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy (GDEPT), administered via intratumoral injection followed by systemic fludarabine.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.31, +8.26%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.08), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.31) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s diseas. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have e96xhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $28.31) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

Nokia (NOK, $6.18, +.49%) is promising investors a sleeker, AI‑age version of itself by 2028, aiming to lift profits by as much as 60% while quietly admitting that the road there runs through a restructuring zone. Nokia today announced it has been selected by KPN, a Dutch telecommunications company, to help transform the Netherlands’ core digital infrastructure through the deployment of an 800G-capable IP and optical network. This nationwide initiative, known as FabriQ, forms the ‘digital aorta’ for all fixed and mobile services delivered by KPN to millions of consumer, business and wholesale users across a range of enterprise sectors, supporting increased speed, greater resilience and supporting KPN’s focus on reduced energy use. KPN is the leading telecom provider in the Netherlands, offering mobile, fixed-line, IT and wholesale services. The company has been rapidly expanding its fiber-optic network, aiming to make high-speed broadband widely available across the Netherlands.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN, $7.41, +5.11%) a digital red estate disruptor, jumped higher once again as the belief that interest rates would be cut in December rose significantly.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.94). DoubleVerify Holdings is a software company that helps advertisers verify and improve the quality and performance of their digital ads across the web, apps, social platforms, and connected TV. DoubleVerify provides a digital media measurement and analytics platform that checks whether ads are viewable, shown to real people (not bots), served in brand‑safe environments, and delivered in the right geography. Its tools give advertisers independent, third‑party data so they can reduce ad fraud, avoid unsafe content, and get better return on their digital ad spend. DoubleVerify primarily earns revenue by charging advertisers, agencies, and platforms based on the volume of media it measures (such as impressions or transactions). Its technology is integrated with major ad platforms and programmatic exchanges, and is used globally by brands, marketplaces, and publishers to monitor and optimize campaigns.

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq & Russell Diverge as Fed Decision Looms, Silver Hits Record and M&A Heats Up – December 9, 2025 -( $INTC $MODD $NOK $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $RIO $SOAR $TSLA $TSM Rise!)

Indexes and macro tone

Fed, shutdown and tariffs

Commodities and crypto

Big‑cap tech and AI leaders

Platform, software and data names

Autos, industrials and legacy tech

Healthcare and energy transition

Nuclear, housing and other stories

Dealmaking, M&A and IPOs

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Sources

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