Santa Rally Stuck In Traffic To Begin December While Gold and Silver Run -( $AAPL $DV $INTG $MODD $NOK $NVDA $RIO $SNPS Rise!)

Wall Street opened December in a distinctly un-festive mood, with the Santa rally stuck in traffic behind tariffs, Bitcoin, and a still-wonky macro tape. The Dow slid roughly 0.9%, the S&P 500 lost about 0.5%, the Nasdaq eased 0.4%, and small caps in the Russell 2000 lagged ( off 1.25%) yet again as investors rotated gingerly out of the year’s high‑beta darlings and into something that looks vaguely like caution. In sum, the first trading day of December delivered a gentle reminder that after a seven‑month winning streak, even bull markets need to stop for breath—and occasionally to check whether the tariff bill, the next rate cut, and Bitcoin’s latest mood swing have arrived in the mail.

Macro and policy backdrop

The ISM manufacturing index stayed in contraction for a ninth straight month, with survey respondents blaming weak orders, higher input costs from tariffs, and lingering disruptions from this year’s 43‑day federal shutdown. A separate rundown of recent data shows softer retail sales and weaker consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations (Now approx. 85%) that the Fed will cut rates again at its December 9–10 FOMC meeting, following October’s 25‑basis‑point move that took the funds rate to a 3.75%–4% range.

Tariffs remain both economic headwind and political calling card: new commentary highlighted how elevated import levies are weighing on manufacturing while the administration continues to tout “tariff stimulus” and to defend its broader tariff‑heavy strategy. There was at least one patch of détente, as the US and UK agreed to move to zero tariffs on pharmaceuticals, a modest but symbolically important step toward lowering costs in a politically sensitive sector.

Rates, curve, and shutdown afterglow

Treasury markets reflected the tug‑of‑war between weak data and “one more cut” optimism, with 10‑year yields edging slightly higher on the day to 4,094% and the 2yr. moved up to 3.543% even as futures markets priced in a high probability of a December rate cut. The curve remains compressed rather than deeply inverted, signaling a market that sees slowing growth but not an imminent collapse given that the worst of the shutdown shock is now in the rear‑view mirror. The earlier government closure shaved billions from output and created a “data fog” for policymakers, but current commentary suggests little appetite in Washington for another funding standoff anytime soon.

Commodities and crypto

Gold extended its remarkable run, trading around 4,272.80 dollars an ounce, up about half a percent on the day and more than 60% year‑to‑date as investors continue to treat it as the safer AI trade. Silver joined the move higher, buoyed by the same lower‑rate expectations and industrial demand narrative closing at $58.49/oz, up 2.33%. Oil prices climbed as well to $59.45/bbl, helped by growing conviction that an easier Fed and steady demand could tighten balances into 2026. Bitcoin, by contrast, spent the day in the penalty box, trading below 87,000 dollars after a deeper slump that has left it modestly negative for the year, a sharp reversal from its early‑2025 leadership.

Big AI, chips, and megacaps

The high‑profile AI complex saw Nvidia (NVDA) move up 1.66% to $179.9. Note that Nvidia’s latest (today) multibillion‑dollar bet isn’t on another data center, but on the software that tells everyone else how to build the chips that feed those data centers. The GPU king announce ed that it is putting $2 billion into Synopsys (SNPS) and wrapping it in a multi‑year partnership that essentially says: if you’re designing silicon – or almost any complex system – you’ll be doing it on Nvidia’s rails. Broadcom (AVGO) traded $4.19% lower to $368.08 following a mix of cautious and bullish analyst chatter. By the way, one brokerage reiterated a sell on Nvidia citing rising competition, while others raised price targets on both names, arguing that data‑center AI demand still supports substantial growth. Apple rose 1.52% to $283.10 as “overweight” commentary from a major firm surfaced pointing to healthy iPhone lead times through the holiday season. Tesla likewise softened by .01% to $430.14 as the market waits for concrete updates on robotaxis, lower‑cost models, and the much‑teased humanoid bot, with sentiment still positive but less forgiving after a torrid run.

Meta slipped 1.09% to $640.87 in sympathy with the rest of the mega‑cap tech cohort despite remaining a core name in most AI and advertising recovery baskets. Intel (INTC), one of 2025’s comeback stories thanks to new foundry deals and speculation about additional marquee customers, was more resilient after a recent run that has already seen the stock double this year but closed 1.36% to $40.01. Oracle (ORCL), which has been swept up in the AI‑infrastructure trade thanks to high‑profile cloud and data‑center announcements, also traded .50% lower to $200.94 as investors rotated out of richly valued AI beneficiaries for the day.

Healthcare, industrials, and other single‑stock stories

Eli Lilly, now firmly ensconced in the trillion‑dollar club, traded 1.63% lower to $1,057.89 after announcing cuts to cash prices for vials of its blockbuster obesity drug Zepbound on its direct‑to‑consumer channel, a headline that pleased policymakers and patients more than short‑term margin purists. The move comes on the heels of blowout earnings, surging GLP‑1 demand, and a valuation that even some bulls now describe as exuberant.

McDonald’s, long a beneficiary of both pricing power and value‑seeking consumers, moved 2.06% lower to $303.57 with the broader Dow but remains a poster child for how stable cash flows and an AI‑enhanced drive‑thru can still command a premium multiple. Nokia (NOK), once again reinventing itself around networks and licensing rather than handsets, traded .66% higher to $6.12 and is up +45.71% over the last year. Rio Tinto (RIO, $71.97, +.03%) moved in line with global cyclicals, with sentiment tethered to the same growth and China‑sensitive forces that are haunting the ISM survey.

OKLO, Palantir, Opendoor and the speculative fringe

Oklo, the fast‑rising small modular reactor name tethered to the AI energy story, had a volatile session after last week’s surge, with intraday swings between the mid‑80s and around 90 dollars and pressure from news of insider selling offset by fresh institutional interest and closed at $87.36, -4.40%. The stock remains up several hundred percent year‑to‑date and trades at elevated multiples, leaving little room for engineering delays or regulatory hiccups.

Palantir (PLTR, $167.49, -.57%) eased as well, extending a pullback that has taken the shares nearly 20% below their early‑November highs after a year in which they still more than doubled on the back of defense demand and AI‑driven enterprise analytics wins. Opendoor (OPEN), tightly linked to housing liquidity and rates, reflected the same push‑and‑pull: optimism about further Fed cuts versus the reality of a still‑constrained transaction market and closed at $7.14, -7.27%. In all three cases, 2025’s story remains the same: magnificent narratives, but price targets now move in basis points of Fed guidance.

Tariffs, trade, and Washington noise

Beyond the pharma truce with the UK, tariffs stayed front‑and‑center as a structural headwind, with manufacturers flagging higher input costs and weaker sales tied directly to recent rounds of levies. A fresh political push framed those same tariffs as the engine for potential “tariff stimulus” payments, underscoring how trade policy has become both fiscal tool and campaign slogan. With new hearings underway on key trade agreements, markets are bracing for more headline risk as businesses, unions, and foreign partners lobby for targeted exemptions and longer transition periods.

IPOs, M&A, and deal flow

The new‑issue calendar remains active but not frothy, with this week’s lineup featuring mostly small‑cap and SPAC‑like deals on the NYSE and Nasdaq rather than marquee tech listings. Names on tap include several international consumer and services issuers, a gaming operator, and a biotech, alongside a blank‑check vehicle raising roughly 300 million dollars. The absence of a flagship growth IPO this week underscores how much of 2025’s risk appetite has expressed itself instead through secondary trading in AI and energy stories like Nvidia, Oklo, and Palantir.

On the M&A front, Monday’s tape lacked a single transformational mega‑deal, with most of the action confined to secondary block trades and portfolio rebalancing rather than strategic buyouts. That said, ongoing talk of AI‑related partnerships and infrastructure joint ventures continues to blur the line between organic growth and deal‑driven expansion, especially across semis, cloud, and defense‑tech.

VP Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.42, +4.97%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today (Nov. 17) announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion. On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $5.97), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated, “These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.3764), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, reported (Nov. 13) its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and provided a business update highlighting key corporate and clinical advancements across its vaccine and oncology programs. David Dodd, CEO of Geovax stated, “As highlighted in this report, during the third quarter GeoVax continued making important progress, advancing innovative vaccines and immunotherapies that address urgent and underserved medical needs. With continued global Mpox spread and constrained vaccine supply, our GEO-MVA program represents a U.S.-based, scalable, next-generation MVA platform. Our EMA and BARDA-aligned program position GeoVax to accelerate regulatory readiness and commercial entry. For our GEO-CM04S1 COVID-19 vaccine program, recent clinical presentations validate our belief that multi-antigen vaccines – expressing both spike and nucleocapsid – are essential for breadth and durability in vulnerable immunocompromised populations. In particular, the robust immune responses demonstrated in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) patients represents a meaningful step forward in addressing the unmet needs of over 40 million immunocompromised Americans. In our Gedeptin(R) oncology program, the expansion into multiple solid tumor indications builds upon a growing recognition that tumor-targeted immune priming can dramatically improve checkpoint outcomes. We are executing a clear path to clinical and commercial value creation. GeoVax continues to execute with purpose and discipline. Our multi-antigen vaccine and immunotherapy platforms position the Company squarely within the national call to strengthen America’s health security, expand domestic manufacturing, and deliver equitable global solutions.”

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.22) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0949), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.90) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s diseas. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have e96xhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $31.31,+.92%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

Nokia (NOK, $6.12, +.66%) is promising investors a sleeker, AI‑age version of itself by 2028, aiming to lift profits by as much as 60% while quietly admitting that the road there runs through a restructuring zone.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN, $7.14) a digital red estate disruptor, jumped higher as the belief that interest rates would be cut in December rose significantly.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at at $10.66, +1.14%. DoubleVerify Holdings is a software company that helps advertisers verify and improve the quality and performance of their digital ads across the web, apps, social platforms, and connected TV. DoubleVerify provides a digital media measurement and analytics platform that checks whether ads are viewable, shown to real people (not bots), served in brand‑safe environments, and delivered in the right geography. Its tools give advertisers independent, third‑party data so they can reduce ad fraud, avoid unsafe content, and get better return on their digital ad spend. DoubleVerify primarily earns revenue by charging advertisers, agencies, and platforms based on the volume of media it measures (such as impressions or transactions). Its technology is integrated with major ad platforms and programmatic exchanges, and is used globally by brands, marketplaces, and publishers to monitor and optimize campaigns.

Macro and policy backdrop

Rates, curve, and shutdown afterglow

Commodities and crypto

Big AI, chips, and megacaps

Healthcare, industrials, and other single‑stock stories

OKLO, Palantir, Opendoor and the speculative fringe

Tariffs, trade, and Washington noise

IPOs, M&A, and deal flow

VP Watchlist Updates

Sources

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