Santa Rally on a Short Leash: S&P Near Highs, Silver Soars, AI Titans & GLP‑1 Giant Lilly Catch Their Breath As Fed Minutes Revealed - December 30, 2025 -( $AVGO $INTC $INTG $LLY $META $OPEN $ORCL $RIO $SOAR Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

In a fitting coda to 2025, Tuesday’s market looked less like a grand finale and more like a dress rehearsal for 2026: stocks near records, AI titans and GLP‑1 champions still commanding the marquee, and a supporting cast of tariffs, deficits, metals and bitcoin all jostling to decide whether the next act is a soft‑landing sequel or something with a bit more plot twist. However, at the of the trading day, U.S. stocks eased modestly today as Wall Street tried to wrap a banner year without smudging the ink, with major indexes hovering near record levels even as Fed minutes, jumpy precious metals and tired tech leaders conspired to keep the Santa rally from getting too exuberant.

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell

The S&P 500 spent the session essentially flat to slightly lower, slipping just a few points to finish at 6,896.24, leaving the benchmark within a whisker of last week’s record and cementing an 17.25% gain for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drifted about 0.2% lower as weakness in heavyweight tech and AI beneficiaries offset strength in a handful of industrials and financials, illustrating how narrow 2025’s leadership has become.

The Nasdaq Composite eased about 0.24% as investors again trimmed richly valued AI names, keeping the index off its recent highs but still up strongly for the year on the strength of semiconductors and megacap platforms. The small‑cap Russell 2000 also slipped .76%, giving back a portion of its recent outperformance as higher‑beta cyclicals paused ahead of 2026 growth, tariff and rate assumptions being rewritten in real time.

Macro data, Fed minutes, yields and shutdown

On the macro front, Tuesday’s highlight was the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, which showed officials divided over how aggressively to cut rates next year, with some fretting that too much easing could reignite inflation while others focused on softening momentum. Markets took the split personality in stride: futures continued to price a shallow cutting cycle while equity traders treated the minutes as confirmation that the Fed is easing, just not recklessly so.

Treasury trading remained subdued, with the 10‑year yield hovering near 4.1% as investors balanced slower growth signals against still‑elevated deficits and persistent policy noise from tariffs and shutdown politics. The next FOMC gathering is scheduled for January 27‑28, when policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady and refine the glide path for 2026 rather than deliver another surprise cut.

Washington’s shutdown saga has shifted from cliffhanger to background hum: progress toward reopening has eased immediate tail risks, but negotiations over spending, tariffs and a proposed “tariff dividend” mean fiscal worries remain central to how bond and precious‑metals markets are being priced. For capital markets, that combination—less shutdown drama but more deficit anxiety—has kept risk appetite intact while nudging investors toward the comfort of longer‑dated Treasurys and bullion.

Tariffs, trade and policy cross‑currents

Tariffs stayed in the frame rather than on the front page, with investors still parsing the longer‑term growth and margin impact of President Donald Trump’s on‑again, off‑again levies even after he suspended the most aggressive proposals back in April following a sharp wobble in the Treasury market. Subsequent negotiations to lower headline tariff rates have calmed some nerves, but markets remain acutely aware that any renewed flare‑up would land directly on global supply chains, capex plans and the dollar.

In precious metals, tariff and fiscal concerns continue to act like a slow‑burn stimulus: higher real‑rate volatility, expanding deficits and the prospect of a “tariff dividend” financed by borrowing have all been cited as reasons why investors remain comfortable owning gold and especially silver at historically elevated levels. For equity strategists, the policy mix amounts to a polite reminder that 2026 earnings estimates are being drafted in pencil, not ink.

Eli Lilly: GLP‑1 king trims prices, not its crown

Eli Lilly’s LLY edged modestly higher, rising about 0.09% after the company and Novo Nordisk reduced list prices on obesity drugs in key markets, a move framed as both competitive positioning and pre‑emptive political risk management as the GLP‑1 boom attracts mounting scrutiny. The pressure was more about headline fatigue than fundamentals: Lilly remains a market darling after posting blow‑out quarterly earnings—roughly 7.02 in EPS on revenue that jumped nearly 54% year‑over‑year—and issuing robust 2025 guidance tied to Zepbound, Mounjaro and a deep metabolic pipeline.

Flows underlined that the growth story is intact even if the stock occasionally needs to catch its breath: J.L. Bainbridge & Co. recently raised its stake in LLY by more than 11,000%, making it a top‑10 holding, while analysts’ consensus price target sits north of $1,100 with a “Moderate Buy” tag. The shares spent most of Tuesday changing hands around $1,075–$1,080, roughly 40% above where they started the year, suggesting investors are still treating any GLP‑1 discounting as a margin nuance rather than a thesis‑breaker.

TSMC, Nvidia, Micron and the AI chip complex

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM traded slightly softer to $299.58, mirroring the broader semiconductor space as investors locked in year‑end profits despite a still‑bullish fundamental backdrop that includes rising analyst price targets. Bernstein recently boosted its target on TSM to $330 and reiterated an “outperform” view, calling the foundry a high‑quality core holding in the AI build‑out, but even core holdings occasionally get trimmed when performance fees are on the line.

Nvidia NVDA fell about .36% to $187.54, giving back part of an extraordinary year in which its market value swelled to roughly $4.5 trillion and its AI chips became the de facto tollbooth for data‑center ambition. Micron Technology MU slipped .59% to $292.63 in sympathy after a powerful run fueled by AI‑linked memory demand, with recent screens still flagging it as one of the highest‑dollar‑volume tech names on traders’ dashboards.

Apple, Tesla, Broadcom and Meta

Apple AAPL barely budged, ending fractionally .25% lower as investors treated the iPhone maker as a high‑quality cash‑flow bond in a market otherwise busy debating how much they overpaid for growth this year. The stock remains not far from record territory after a 2025 that mixed renewed optimism about AI and services with periodic hand‑wringing over hardware saturation and regulatory risk.

Tesla TSLA fared worse, sliding around 1.13% to $454.43 as it previewed downbeat sales numbers/4Q deliveries that came in at 422,850 units globally which would be approx. a 15% y/y dip. Broadcom AVGO edged +.13% higher alongside the chip complex after a blistering AI‑infrastructure run, & continues to rank among the most heavily traded technology names and a favored way to own the plumbing of the data‑center boom.

Meta Platforms META rose 1.10% to $665.95. The social‑media giant remains near the front of the line in the trillion‑ish‑dollar club.

Intel, Oracle and the legacy tech cohort

Intel INTC moved 1.69% higher to $37.20. The stock remains a high‑beta way to express a view on whether traditional CPU vendors can reinvent themselves for accelerated computing at scale.

Oracle ORCL also rose .94% to $97.21 after a stellar stretch in which investors rewarded its cloud and AI tie‑ups, including high‑profile work with OpenAI that has helped recast the software stalwart as an infrastructure player rather than a purely legacy database vendor. Recent sessions have seen Oracle singled out among the AI winners whose valuations may already discount a great deal of future deal flow, a nuance that tends to matter when Fed minutes sound even mildly less dovish.

Palantir, Oklo and Opendoor: speculative tape, specific stories

Palantir Technologies PLTR edged lower by 1.81% to $180.84, but remained heavily traded, continuing a pattern in which the stock reacts to every incremental data‑platform win or government contract rumbling with outsized volatility. The name continues to show up near the top of tech watchlists thanks to its combination of AI narrative, defense adjacency and a share price path that looks more like a seismograph than a spreadsheet.

Oklo OKLO, the advanced‑nuclear upstart that went public earlier in the year, traded down 3.33% to $71.62 as the market digested both ambitious deployment timelines and a policy environment that oscillates between enthusiastic and bureaucratic. Opendoor Technologies OPEN likewise saw subdued action but traded +.17% higher to $5.84, with housing‑linked equities still contending with higher‑for‑longer mortgage rates and buyers who would like to believe in a 2026 recovery but have not yet convinced their lenders.

McDonald’s, Nokia, Rio Tinto: old‑economy barometers

McDonald’s MCD was little changed to close at $308.03, continuing to serve as a pleasantly boring bellwether for global consumer demand in a year otherwise dominated by AI, tariffs and precious‑metals theatrics. The stock’s role as an inflation and wage‑pressure barometer has not gone unnoticed, but Tuesday’s quiet tape suggested investors had more urgent dramas to trade.

Nokia NOK traded down 1.06% to $6.51 as the market weighed 5G and network‑equipment demand against capex caution from carriers coping with higher funding costs and uncertain tariff spillovers into hardware pricing. Rio Tinto Group RIO ticked mildly higher by .15% to $80.52, helped by firmer copper and iron‑ore sentiment as investors bet that any 2026 industrial slowdown will be tempered by ongoing demand for electrification metals and AI‑hardware inputs.

IPOs, M&A and deal flow

The primary calendar remained subdued into year‑end, with no marquee NYSE or Nasdaq IPOs pricing on Tuesday even as bankers quietly prepare a deeper 2026 pipeline now that shutdown disruptions have eased. Earlier in December, Medline’s well‑received debut and Motive Technologies’ filing under the ticker “MTVE” illustrated that sponsors remain willing to test the market, but this week’s tape suggests a preference for January windows over late‑December experiments.

M&A headlines were similarly light, with 2025’s broader pattern still defined by tariff uncertainty, elevated rates and unpredictable regulatory sign‑offs that left dealmakers busier fine‑tuning term sheets than announcing blockbuster combinations. Strategics have favored bolt‑on technology and healthcare acquisitions over megamergers, a cautious stance that may persist until the Fed’s path, tariff regime and growth outlook look a bit less like a choose‑your‑own‑adventure novel.

Gold, silver, oil and bitcoin

Gold climbed roughly .41% to trade at the $4,361.20/oz. mark, bouncing back from recent volatility as investors sought a hedge against fiscal drift, policy uncertainty and the uncomfortable arithmetic of running deficits near 6% of GDP at this stage in the cycle. Silver, which has careened between record highs and double‑digit intraday swings this month, moved 7.85% higher after yesterday’s pullback and remains on track to finish 2025 with eye‑catching gains that have turned even jaded macro funds into reluctant metals tourists.

Oil prices ticked modestly lower to $57.94/bbl, with disciplined supply and periodic geopolitical flare‑ups into a price level that offends almost no one and delights even fewer. Bitcoin added just under 1%, changing hands in the high‑$88,000s and reminding skeptics that even after a sharp pullback from October’s six‑figure peak, the asset has quietly retained most of its 2025 gains thanks to ETF demand and a surprisingly crypto‑friendly tone from Washington.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3621), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $7.73, +2.38%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.1719, +1%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.79, +16.245) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0739), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.

On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”

On Dec. 18, Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.011), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.

On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $27.38, +3.28%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.50, -52%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Santa Rally on a Short Leash: S&P Near Highs, Silver Soars, AI Titans & GLP‑1 Giant Lilly Catch Their Breath As Fed Minutes Revealed – December 30, 2025 -( $AVGO $INTC $INTG $LLY $META $OPEN $ORCL $RIO $SOAR Rise!)