Nasdaq Climbs, Russell Roars: Inside Today’s Market Move, Fed Countdown, and Trade Tensions - Dec. 4, 2025 -( $AVGO $MODD $MTWO $NVDA $OKLO $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $SOAR $TSLA Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street tiptoed into Thursday’s close with the air of a market that would very much like to keep making new highs, just not all at once. The S&P 500 inched higher, the Nasdaq put in a slightly stronger showing, the Dow lagged, and small caps quietly stole the scene again, as investors balanced firm macro data, noisy tariff headlines, and a Fed that is very much “on deck” for next week.

Indexes and macro tone

The S&P 500 added about 0.11% to finish near 6,857.12, while the Nasdaq rose roughly 0.22% to 23,505.14, keeping both large-cap benchmarks hovering just below record territory. The Dow slipped about 0.07% to around 47,850.94, even as the Russell 2000 climbed roughly 0.76% to near 2,531.16, extending a stretch of record closes for small caps and underscoring a continued broadening of the rally.

On the macro front, jobless claims remain pinned near multi‑year lows, reinforcing a picture of a labor market that is softening gently rather than cracking, with late‑November initial claims dropping toward the lowest levels since 2022. That resilience has allowed markets to focus less on recession scare stories and more on the timing and scale of the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Fed, yields, and tariffs

Treasury yields were little changed to modestly higher along the curve, with the 10‑year benchmark holding just above 4.102% & the 2-yr at 3.531%, keeping the curve still inverted but less dramatically than earlier this year. Markets are now squarely trained on the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, where policymakers will release their next decision and projections on December 10 in the afternoon, and futures continue to lean toward a 2026‑style easing path rather than fresh tightening.

Tariff politics re‑entered center stage as U.S. officials signaled that President Donald Trump is weighing whether to start the process of withdrawing from the USMCA trade pact, even as the administration simultaneously adjusts specific levies under the U.S.–Korea deal. The Supreme Court’s pending review of the legal basis for prior “reciprocal” tariffs has also become more than a law‑school hypothetical, with the risk that billions in duties could yet be subject to refund if the court rules against the White House.

Washington and shutdown backdrop

The federal government’s autumn shutdown ended in mid‑November, after running from October 1 to November 12, and the market is treating that episode more as a scar than an open wound. With a continuing resolution in place, investors are now watching for the next budget deadline but, for the moment, see fiscal risk as background noise compared with monetary policy and trade.

Big tech and AI complex

In mega‑cap tech, Nvidia (NVDA $183.38, +2.11%) and Broadcom (AVGO, $381.03, +.11%) remain the twin pillars of the AI‑hardware trade, now both entrenched in the rarefied club of trillion‑dollar chipmakers, keeping the sector’s leadership narrative intact even as day‑to‑day price moves moderate. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM, $292.93, -.85%) continues to ride that same AI wave from one step back in the supply chain; its shares recently traded around the mid‑$290s, up more than 40% over the past year, supported by robust revenue growth and strong technical momentum. The mood across the complex remains one of disciplined enthusiasm: investors want AI exposure, they just prefer not to chase quite as frenetically as they did in the first half of the year.

Apple (AAPL AAPL, $280.70, -1.21%) and Tesla (TSLA, $454.53, +1.74%) each drew attention from the analyst community, with fresh calls helping keep both names woven into the day’s narrative even without dramatic price swings. Did you know that Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla stated that his ‘running robot, will actually eliminate poverty‘?

Eli Lilly and healthcare

Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,014.49, – 1.85%) continued to justify its premium valuation, as investors lean into its obesity and diabetes franchise. The company has enjoyed a powerful technical uptrend, with its shorter‑term moving average holding above the longer‑term trend for months, while fresh analyst price targets around or above $1,200 per share underline how central the name has become in the growth‑at‑any‑price debate. Rather than fretting over the altitude, investors appear content to treat Lilly as a quasi‑staple of the new health‑tech regime.

Software, chips, and industrials

Oracle (ORCL, $214.33, +3.18%) remains to be somewhat of a quiet lightning rod: the stock has rebounded into the low‑$200s after a pullback from earlier peaks, even as large, out‑of‑the‑money put positions suggest some investors are hedging against the risks of its AI‑driven capex splurge. Intel, for its part, remains part of the broader semiconductor narrative but has ceded much of the glamour to Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSM, leaving value‑oriented investors to debate whether a late‑cycle turnaround is worth the wait.

Across the broader industrial and materials space, Rio Tinto (RIO, $73.73, -.74%) continues to trade as a macro proxy on China and global infrastructure spending, while McDonald’s (MCD, $308.54, +.27%) offers the kind of steady‑cash‑flow defensiveness that investors like to keep in the drawer when volatility threatens to resurface.

New economy names and special situations

Among more speculative fare, small modular reactor developer Oklo ($111.65, +15.59%) has been volatile, with shares pulling back recently after a sharp prior run as investors recalibrated expectations amid signs that U.S. policy may tilt more toward large nuclear projects. Opendoor (OPEN, $7.58, +9.22%) remains tethered to the housing and rate cycle: every basis‑point shift in mortgage expectations seems to echo through its share price, keeping it a leveraged bet on the idea that the most painful part of the real‑estate adjustment is behind us.

Palantir (PLTR, $177.92, +1.04%) remains embroiled in its own debate: is it chiefly a defense‑and‑intel contractor in modern dress, or a scalable enterprise‑software platform with AI leverage? The stock has pulled back from early‑November highs of $207.52, but still trades at elevated levels after a year of strong gains (154.72%), supported by a stream of government contracts and persistent enthusiasm around its role in the AI data‑stack.

M&A and new listings

The deal calendar remains active, if more in structure than in sizzle. A suite of SPACs and smaller offerings priced this week, including Activate Energy Acquisition, New America Acquisition I, Safeguard Acquisition, SMJ International, and Regentis Biomaterials, with deal sizes ranging from about $10 million for the smaller operating companies to $200–$300 million for the blank‑check vehicles. On the pipeline front, upcoming traditional IPOs such as Lumexa Imaging, Wealthfront, and Cardinal Infrastructure have filed to raise several hundred million dollars apiece, suggesting that the primary market is slowly thawing across both tech and industrial niches.

Strategic M&A headlines were relatively subdued today, with more activity in options and structured trades—such as large bearish put positions in Oracle—than in blockbuster corporate combinations, underscoring that boardrooms are still digesting the year’s earlier deals and the higher‑rate backdrop.

Commodities and crypto

Gold added around 0.1% to trade just above $4,237.90 an ounce, remaining close to record territory and serving as a quiet hedge against both geopolitical risk and the possibility that real rates could drift lower in 2026. Silver, by contrast, slipped more than 1.86% on the day to $57.53/oz.

Oil prices firmed intraday as crude extended a short‑term rebound, helped by technical support and ongoing supply‑side discipline and closing up 1.27% at $59.70/bbl.. Bitcoin eased roughly 01.39% to trade around $92,288.07, snapping a brief winning streak but remaining within sight of recent highs, as digital‑asset traders weigh lofty prices against a more sedate backdrop for volumes.

The week ahead

With major indexes parked just below records, the 10‑year Treasury hovering near 4%, and the next FOMC meeting only days away, markets are entering the classic “don’t touch the thermostat” phase of the cycle. Add in the renewed drama over tariffs and the future of the USMCA, and investors may find that the final weeks of the year offer less of a melt‑up and more of a high‑wire act—albeit one that, for now, still leans in favor of the bulls.

VP Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4510, +7.10%, a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today (Nov. 17) announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion. On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $5.87), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $..3836), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, reported (Nov. 13) its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and provided a business update highlighting key corporate and clinical advancements across its vaccine and oncology programs. David Dodd, CEO of Geovax stated, “As highlighted in this report, during the third quarter GeoVax continued making important progress, advancing innovative vaccines and immunotherapies that address urgent and underserved medical needs. With continued global Mpox spread and constrained vaccine supply, our GEO-MVA program represents a U.S.-based, scalable, next-generation MVA platform. Our EMA and BARDA-aligned program position GeoVax to accelerate regulatory readiness and commercial entry. For our GEO-CM04S1 COVID-19 vaccine program, recent clinical presentations validate our belief that multi-antigen vaccines – expressing both spike and nucleocapsid – are essential for breadth and durability in vulnerable immunocompromised populations. In particular, the robust immune responses demonstrated in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) patients represents a meaningful step forward in addressing the unmet needs of over 40 million immunocompromised Americans. In our Gedeptin(R) oncology program, the expansion into multiple solid tumor indications builds upon a growing recognition that tumor-targeted immune priming can dramatically improve checkpoint outcomes. We are executing a clear path to clinical and commercial value creation. GeoVax continues to execute with purpose and discipline. Our multi-antigen vaccine and immunotherapy platforms position the Company squarely within the national call to strengthen America’s health security, expand domestic manufacturing, and deliver equitable global solutions.”

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.37, +8.73%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0981, +2.91%), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.47) stands at a pivotal juncture as it harnesses fresh capital, regulatory momentum, and a sharpened communications strategy to propel its lead program, SER-252, into late-stage clinical testing for advanced Parkinson’s diseas. The Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have e96xhausted standard oral therapies.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $30.99) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

Nokia (NOK, $6.16) is promising investors a sleeker, AI‑age version of itself by 2028, aiming to lift profits by as much as 60% while quietly admitting that the road there runs through a restructuring zone. Nokia today announced it has been selected by KPN, a Dutch telecommunications company, to help transform the Netherlands’ core digital infrastructure through the deployment of an 800G-capable IP and optical network. This nationwide initiative, known as FabriQ, forms the ‘digital aorta’ for all fixed and mobile services delivered by KPN to millions of consumer, business and wholesale users across a range of enterprise sectors, supporting increased speed, greater resilience and supporting KPN’s focus on reduced energy use. KPN is the leading telecom provider in the Netherlands, offering mobile, fixed-line, IT and wholesale services. The company has been rapidly expanding its fiber-optic network, aiming to make high-speed broadband widely available across the Netherlands.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN, $7.58, +9.22%) a digital red estate disruptor, jumped higher once again as the belief that interest rates would be cut in December rose significantly.

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.82 DoubleVerify Holdings is a software company that helps advertisers verify and improve the quality and performance of their digital ads across the web, apps, social platforms, and connected TV. DoubleVerify provides a digital media measurement and analytics platform that checks whether ads are viewable, shown to real people (not bots), served in brand‑safe environments, and delivered in the right geography. Its tools give advertisers independent, third‑party data so they can reduce ad fraud, avoid unsafe content, and get better return on their digital ad spend. DoubleVerify primarily earns revenue by charging advertisers, agencies, and platforms based on the volume of media it measures (such as impressions or transactions). Its technology is integrated with major ad platforms and programmatic exchanges, and is used globally by brands, marketplaces, and publishers to monitor and optimize campaigns.

Nasdaq Climbs, Russell Roars: Inside Today’s Market Move, Fed Countdown, and Trade Tensions – Dec. 4, 2025 -( $AVGO $MODD $MTWO $NVDA $OKLO $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $SOAR $TSLA Rise!)

Indexes and macro tone

Fed, yields, and tariffs

Washington and shutdown backdrop

Big tech and AI complex

Eli Lilly and healthcare

Software, chips, and industrials

New economy names and special situations

M&A and new listings

Commodities and crypto

The week ahead

VP Watchlist Updates

Sources

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