The major U.S. equity benchmarks spent Wednesday doing their best impression of a tightrope act, wobbling on tariff angst and rate jitters but largely maintaining their lofty perch near record territory.
Indexes: Gravity Check, Not Freefall
The S&P 500 edged lower, slipping about 0.3% as weakness in defensive groups like utilities offset another resilient showing from megacap technology, leaving the benchmark just a step below recent record highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the roughest session, giving back roughly 0.9%—about 466 points—as economically sensitive names and major banks retreated from Tuesday’s milestone close below 49,000.
The Nasdaq Composite managed to stay on the right side of the ledger, adding about 0.16% as strength in large technology and AI-linked shares helped offset broader market fatigue and kept growth investors firmly in the driver’s seat.
Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000 which closed down .29%, traded more like a risk thermometer, lagging amid worries that higher-for-longer real yields and tariff uncertainty will pinch financing costs and margins more acutely outside the megacap universe.
Macro: Tariffs, Yields and a Shutdown Clock
Tariffs once again stole part of the macro spotlight, as markets watched the Supreme Court’s fast-approaching opinion window on challenges to President Trump’s import levies, a decision that could force refunds on more than $130 billion of duties or reaffirm one of the administration’s signature economic tools.
The broader tariff narrative remained fluid, with Trump-era and “Trump 2.0” reciprocal tariffs still hanging over global supply chains even as the White House has delayed some planned hikes, prompting debate over whether the policy mix ultimately raises consumer prices or—per a recent San Francisco Fed analysis—could paradoxically help cool inflation.
The bond market offered its own brand of unease, with the 10‑year Treasury yield easing to roughly 4.15%—a modest decline from the prior session—while shorter maturities hovered near the mid‑3% range, extending a still‑compressed yield curve that signals lingering growth skepticism despite upbeat equity indices.
Fed watchers kept one eye on the FOMC calendar, which shows the first policy meeting cluster of 2026 on deck later this month, with investors expecting fresh guidance but little appetite inside the central bank for dramatic early‑year moves so soon after a long tightening cycle.
In Washington, the shutdown clock continues to tick: after a record 43‑day closure that ended in mid‑November, Congress faces a new funding deadline at the end of January, and lawmakers are once again debating whether to push through full‑year appropriations or punt via another short‑term patch, leaving federal workers and contractors uncomfortably familiar with contingency planning.
On the data front, investors mostly digested the existing run of labor and inflation readings rather than any single blockbuster release, using the session to refine expectations for how far real yields can fall without reigniting inflation—or forcing the Fed to rediscover its inner hawk.
Earnings, Deals and Corporate Drama
In healthcare, Eli Lilly (LLY) provided one of the day’s more theatrical performances, with shares jumping roughly 4% intraday as investors cheered a flurry of obesity‑drug optimism, bullish analyst commentary and confirmation that Lilly will acquire Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX, $13.73, +36.62%) in an all‑cash transaction aimed at bolstering its oral immunology and metabolic pipeline. The Ventyx deal, priced at about $14 per share according to the companies’ announcement, fits Lilly’s broader strategy of turning its GLP‑1 weight‑loss franchise into something closer to a diversified metabolic empire, a vision Wall Street increasingly appears willing to fund at trillion‑dollar market‑cap levels.
Tech and AI bellwethers remained central to the market’s narrative even when they were not grabbing all the headlines. Nvidia (NVDA, $189.11, +.98%) spent the session trading as a barometer for AI enthusiasm following fresh automotive and robotics announcements earlier in the week, while Micron 9MU) continued to ride its new reputation as “the Nvidia of AI memory,” a phrase analysts have deployed to justify the stock’s sharp rerating ahead of expected data‑center demand.
Intel (INTC, $42.63, +6.52%) enjoyed a rare turn in the limelight as positive commentary around its foundry and packaging roadmap, including high‑profile political and industry backing, helped extend a recent run in which the chipmaker is again being discussed as a strategic asset in the global semiconductor race rather than merely a turnaround project.
On Nasdaq, blank‑check vehicle Soren Acquisition Corp. priced units under the ticker SORNU, while a steady pipeline of upcoming offerings—from oncology names like Aktis to niche industrial and consumer listings—underscored that primary markets are thawing, even if blockbuster tech unicorns are still waiting for more stable rates and clearer tariff rules.
Apple (AAPL, $260.33) and Meta (META, $648.60) two pillars of the megacap cohort, traded more on their role as “rate‑sensitive quality” than on any single headline, with their combination of sturdy balance sheets and immense buyback capacity keeping them central to every portfolio manager’s “things not to be underweight for too long” list.
Tesla (TSLA, $431.41), by contrast, remained in the more volatile camp: options markets and recent flow data pointed to active short‑term positioning, reflecting the market’s ongoing tug‑of‑war between EV demand concerns and upside optionality from software, autonomy and energy segments.
Beyond the megacaps, Opendoor (OPEN, $6,.12, -11.69%) and Palantir (PLTR, $181.68, +1.10%) sat at the intersection of speculative appetite and macro nerves: housing‑adjacent names like Opendoor are contending with the still‑elevated rate environment and a choppy transaction backdrop, while Palantir continues to benefit from its AI‑and‑defense narrative in a world where geopolitical risk and government digital‑modernization budgets both remain elevated and is currently being linked to the capture of Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela.
McDonald’s (MCD, $304.16, +.46%), Rio Tinto and Nokia (NOK, $6.79, +4.95%) each traded more as macro proxies than stock‑specific stories—McDonald’s as a consumer‑staples bellwether for real wage trends, Rio Tinto as a call option on metals intensity in an infrastructure‑heavy, defense‑spending‑friendly Trump budget, and Nokia as a barometer for telecom capex and 5G/6G upgrade cycles.
New‑nuclear hopeful OKLO ($97.60, +2.09%) and other energy‑transition names remained mostly a story about long‑dated optionality and regulatory pace: investors are willing to underwrite the narrative, but they are not yet willing to ignore the opportunity cost of parking capital in projects that sit many policy cycles away from full commercial payout.
Commodities, Crypto and the Search for Inflation Hedges
Gold prices ($4,474.40, +.27%) continued to trade within a bullish channel, with spot around the mid‑$4,400s per ounce and technicians looking for a pullback toward support near $4,455 as a potential springboard for another leg higher toward the $4,580 area as investors hedge against policy surprises and tariff‑driven cost pressures. Silver ($78.805, +1.54%) followed suit with a softer session after a strong multi‑day run, reminding traders that precious metals can correct sharply even in structurally bullish environments—particularly when positioning gets crowded ahead of index rebalancings and macro data drops.
Crude oil moved up .55% to $56.30.
Bitcoin traded cautiously softer to the $91k level, cooling after its latest advance as ETF flows and shifting expectations for real yields and Fed policy once again dictated whether the asset behaves more like “digital gold,” high‑beta tech, or simply a sentiment gauge for how adventurous macro traders feel on any given day.
Vista Partners Watchlist Updates
Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.4449, +10.29%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.
On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.
On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $7.21, -3.09%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”
GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.2036), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer.
GeoVax is heading into the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference week (“JPM2026”) in San Francisco, CA Jan. 12-15 with the kind of narrative biotech investors typically like to hear: a differentiated platform, large funded trials lining up, and multiple shots on goal in both infectious disease and oncology. The company is leaning into its MVA platform as a potential franchise engine rather than a one‑product science experiment. Specifically, investors can meet David Dodd, Chairman & CEO of GeoVax, during his presentation at the Hilton Union Square, 333 O’Farrell Street, Yosemite A (Ballroom Level), San Francisco, CA on January 13, 2026, 2:30 pm PST.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.65%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0599), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.
On Jan. 7, M2i Global, Inc. along with Volato Group, Inc. (“Volato”) (NYSE American: SOAR), a technology-driven company, announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Titanium X, marking a major step forward in advancing domestic refining capabilities and securing the critical materials supply chain essential to U.S. industry and national security.
Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.
On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”
On Dec. 18, Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.
Volato Group, Inc. announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.42, +16.35%), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.
On Dec. 10, Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.
The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $27.68., +4.65%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.21, +2.28%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.
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