US stocks pulled back from recent records on Monday as renewed strain around US-Iran peace efforts and the looming March retail sales and PMI data prompted investors to take profits and re‑price risk.
Index moves and risk tone
- The S&P 500 (7,109.14, -.24%) and Nasdaq (24,404.39, -.26%) closed lower, slipping from last week’s all‑time highs as geopolitical jitters resurfaced and a historic rally finally met resistance.
- The Dow (49,442.56, -.01%) hovered slightly in the red, lagging the broader market after having surged to near 49,500 in prior sessions, reflecting rotation out of cyclicals that had benefited from “peace premium” pricing.
- The small caps on the Russell 2000 rose .51% today closing at 2,790.94.
- Volatility remained contained compared with the March shock episode, but price action was clearly more two‑way as traders faded strength rather than chasing it, a contrast with the earlier “Hormuz Hope” squeeze. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at $19.09, +9.21%.
Global and cross‑asset backdrop
- Earlier in April, optimism that a ceasefire and reopening of key shipping lanes could stick pushed major benchmarks like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nikkei 225 and KOSPI to or near record territory, underscoring how sensitive risk assets remain to Middle East headlines.
- Oil, which had dropped sharply from peaks above 110 dollars toward the 80–95 range on hopes of a durable peace framework, found a bid again as markets reassessed the odds of renewed supply disruptions.
- In rates and FX, safe‑haven demand for the dollar firmed while the yen stayed under pressure after recent Bank of Japan signals against a near‑term hike, reinforcing the carry backdrop even as risk sentiment wobbled.
Geopolitics: peace premium under pressure
- The immediate catalyst for Monday’s softness was a fresh setback in the US‑Iran track, after a US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship and Tehran’s threats of retaliation cast doubt on upcoming talks and the durability of the ceasefire.
- This marks a reversal from last week, when news of renewed discussions and White House openness to further negotiations supported a “risk‑on” bid and pushed Wall Street to fresh highs despite the ongoing conflict.
- Markets are now grappling with a narrower gap between best‑case and worst‑case scenarios: any suggestion of shipping lane closures or broader regional escalation would have immediate implications for oil, freight costs and inflation expectations.
Macro and policy context
- The latest IMF World Economic Outlook and other global outlooks frame this conflict as a key downside risk, with world growth projected to slow toward the low‑3 percent range in 2026 while inflation re‑accelerates modestly, especially in emerging markets.
- In the US, a weaker‑than‑hoped growth impulse into year‑end 2025, including a notable revision down in Q4 GDP, has left the expansion resilient but cooling, with less room for policy support if another energy shock hits.
- Central banks are therefore juggling uneven disinflation with renewed energy‑driven price pressure, making them reluctant to pre‑commit to aggressive easing even as confidence and PMIs soften.
Data in focus: retail sales, PMIs, sentiment
- Monday traded as a set‑up day for a dense slate of US data, with March retail sales expected this week to post their strongest monthly gain in roughly a year, around the mid‑1 percent area, flattered by the jump in gasoline prices.
- Under the hood, the “control group” of retail sales that feeds directly into GDP will be watched for signs that real, inflation‑adjusted consumer demand is losing steam even as nominal receipts rise.
- Flash April PMIs for manufacturing and services, due later in the week, are seen as the first clean read on activity after the latest oil‑driven CPI spike and a sharp slide in consumer confidence, with a particular focus on whether services can hold just above the 50 expansion line.
Confidence and global indicators
- Survey data paint a picture of a “confidence recession,” with US consumer sentiment hovering near its weakest levels since the 2008 financial crisis and one‑year inflation expectations pushing toward the upper‑4 percent zone.
- In Europe, the ZEW and Ifo surveys, along with EU consumer confidence, are expected to deteriorate further, reinforcing a narrative of weaker growth momentum on the eve of the European Central Bank’s late‑April meeting.
- These soft‑survey trends matter because they can turn what started as an energy and geopolitics shock into broader demand weakness, complicating central banks’ attempts to keep inflation expectations anchored.
Sector and style dynamics
- The pullback from record highs has been led by growth and high‑beta names that had outperformed during the “ceasefire rally,” particularly large‑cap tech and communication services, while more defensive pockets have held up relatively better.
- Earlier in April, megacap tech leadership drove the Nasdaq to an extended winning streak and contributed a disproportionate share of index gains, leaving positioning crowded and vulnerable to any shift in macro or geopolitical narrative.
- With financial conditions still relatively loose and credit spreads contained, the rotation so far looks more like profit‑taking and de‑risking at the margin than a wholesale flight out of equities, but the tape has become more headline‑sensitive.
Looking ahead
- For the rest of the week, traders will key off the retail sales print, flash PMIs and the evolving US‑Iran newsflow to gauge whether Monday’s weakness is a shallow consolidation or the start of a more meaningful retracement from stretched valuations.,
- On the policy front, speeches from key central bank figures and pre‑meeting positioning ahead of late‑April ECB and Latin American decisions could add further cross‑asset volatility if they hint at a slower or faster path of easing than currently discounted.
- In this environment, markets are likely to reward higher‑quality balance sheets and earnings visibility while penalizing firms most exposed to energy costs, shipping lanes and consumer‑discretionary demand shocks.
VP Watchlist Updates
Below is an update‑style snapshot on the VP Watchlist names for the week, focused on recent catalysts, positioning, and narrative rather than precise price moves.
Hims & Hers Health Inc. (NYSE: HIMS, $31.03, +7.67%)
Wall Street woke up to a rare sight this week: peptides moving out of the regulatory penalty box and straight into the growth-stock conversation. Hims & Hers Health Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) extended its recent rally after U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. signaled that the Food and Drug Administration is preparing to ease limits on a slate of popular peptide treatments. For a market that has spent the last two years pricing in ever-tighter rules on compounding and wellness therapies, the tone suddenly sounds much more like opportunity than overhang.
Broadcom (AVGO, $399.63)
Broadcom’s latest AI alliance with Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG) and Anthropic is less a routine chip deal and more a declaration that the quiet power behind the cloud plans to stay loud for the next decade. The three-way pact locks in custom AI silicon and multi‑gigawatt compute capacity that could reshape who really controls the tollbooths on the generative AI superhighway.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX, $7.20, 1.41%)
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Eupraxia” or the “Company”), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology designed to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for applications with significant unmet need, co-hosted a Tribe Public www.TribePublic.com, CEO Presentation & Q&A Webinar event, Wednesday, April 1 titled “Turning EOE Into a Once-a-Year Appointment.” The event featured James A. Helliwell, M.D., Co‑founder and CEO of Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: EPRX), who discusses the company’s precision drug‑delivery platform, its approach to Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE), and broader pipeline priorities, followed by a focused 5–10 minute Q&A. You may watch it now at this Youtube link.
Eupraxia announced (March 17) positive symptom data from patients in the two highest dose cohorts from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a part of the RESOLVE trial evaluating EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). “We are very pleased to see such a meaningful symptom response at 24 weeks in the highest dose of the Phase 1b/2a portion of the RESOLVE study,” said Dr. James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia. “We believe this type of response based on a single administration procedure would represent a compellingly different option for EoE patients. Importantly, the response that we are observing across cohorts 4-9 has increased as patients progress through the study through to week 24. We believe this demonstrates the importance of stable, continuous long-term local steroids in tamping down signs of inflammation quickly and acting on fibrosis in the longer term. Also, as previously reported, we continue to be encouraged by the safety profile that we have observed with EP-104GI. Currently, with 31 patients dosed in the Phase 1b/2a study, and over 220 months of follow up, there have been no reported serious adverse events.”
Modular Medical (MODD, $5.41)
- Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:MODD), a leader in innovative, patient-centric insulin delivery, today announced the pricing of a registered direct offering consisting of 750,000 shares of the Company’s common stock at an offering price of $4.50 per share. The gross proceeds to the Company from the Offering are estimated to be approximately $3.4 million before deducting placement agent fees and other offering expenses. The Offering is expected to close on or about April 21, 2026, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
- Modular Medical’s latest regulatory milestone upgrades the narrative: the company has now secured FDA 510(k) clearance for its Pivot tubeless insulin patch pump, moving from “launch‑ready” to “launch‑approved” in the heart of the fast‑growing diabesity market. The FDA has cleared Modular Medical’s Pivot patch pump as a tubeless, removable insulin delivery system, formally validating the device’s design and performance for commercial use in U.S. adults living with diabetes. The clearance converts what had been a Q1 2026 launch “subject to FDA response” into a tangible commercial pathway, giving the company permission to sell into an insulin pump market that has been estimated at roughly 8 billion dollars globally. Pivot is engineered as a simplified, two‑part patch pump with a 3‑milliliter removable reservoir, no need for battery recharging, and the ability to bolus without a dedicated controller, aiming squarely at patients who have stayed on multiple daily injections because traditional pumps felt too complex, cumbersome, or costly. By clearing Pivot, the FDA is effectively endorsing Modular Medical’s attempt to make advanced insulin delivery feel less like adopting a gadget and more like upgrading a daily habit.
The InterGroup Corporation (INTG, $33.03)
- InterGroup Corporation delivered (Feb. 17) a notably stronger quarter, highlighted by a 20% jump in total revenue to $17.3 million and a 27% surge in hotel revenue as renovated rooms returned to service and travel demand improved. The company swung from a prior-year net loss to $1.0 million in net income, with operating income more than doubling to $2.0 million, underscoring better cost control and improved operating efficiency. Management further enhanced liquidity and sharpened strategic focus by selling a non-core 12‑unit Los Angeles multifamily property, generating a meaningful gain and additional working capital while maintaining stable performance across its real estate portfolio.
Volato Group, Inc. (SOAR) & M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO)
- Volato Group, Inc. today (April 16) announced that it will hold a special meeting of shareholders on May 7, 2026 to vote on the previously announced proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (“M2i Global”). Shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 17, 2026 will be entitled to vote at the special meeting. The Company expects the merger to close shortly after the meeting, subject to shareholder approval and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Under the terms of the merger agreement, M2i Global will merge with a wholly owned subsidiary of Volato, with M2i Global continuing as the surviving entity and a wholly owned subsidiary of Volato. Upon completion of the transaction, existing M2i Global shareholders are expected to own approximately 85% of the combined company, while Volato shareholders are expected to own approximately 15%, on a fully diluted basis (excluding warrants). The combined company is expected to leverage M2i Global’s capabilities across mining, refining, and recycling of critical minerals alongside Volato’s expertise in software, data systems, and operational execution, creating a scalable, technology-enabled platform focused on strengthening domestic supply chains.
- Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) (the “Company” or “Volato”) and M2i Global, Inc. (OTCQB: MTWO) (“M2i Global”) (April 13) announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has declared effective the Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) relating to Volato’s proposed merger with M2i Global, formally advancing the transaction into its shareholder approval and closing phases. Volato is proceeding with distribution of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and a special meeting of shareholders is expected to be held on May 7, 2026. Shareholders of record as of April 17, 2026 will be entitled to vote on the proposed transaction.
- flyExclusive (NYSE American: FLYX), the vertically integrated private aviation company, announced (March 25) two milestones in its proprietary technology development: the filing of a utility patent application for a novel aircraft schedule optimization architecture, and the availability of Contrails, its Flight Management System, to other Part 135 operators beginning in Q2 2026. Both announcements coincide with the company’s presence at the NBAA Schedulers & Dispatchers Conference 2026 in Cleveland. “We have spent years building flyExclusive into one of the most operationally capable private aviation companies in the country. Contrails is how we make that expertise available to the broader industry—and the intellectual property behind it reflects the depth of investment we have made in solving problems that matter to every serious operator. We believe the right technology, built by people who actually run flights, changes what is possible in this industry. Today we are unable to source lift for nearly 300 trip requests per day. We believe Contrails will allow us to address that demand far more efficiently—both within our own operation and through coordination with other operators—and that represents a material revenue opportunity for flyExclusive and for all participating operators.”
- Volato Group, Inc. announced (March 10) that it has entered into an amendment to its Aircraft Management Services Agreement with flyExclusive, Inc. (“FLYX”) providing for the sale of certain legacy intellectual property assets. The agreement provides for consideration valued at approximately $1.3 million, payable in FLYX Class A common stock, subject to customary conditions. The assets relate to legacy intellectual property developed during earlier stages of the Company’s technology initiatives and are not part of Volato’s current operating platforms. Volato continues to evaluate opportunities to streamline its asset base and focus resources on strategic priorities, including the continued development of its core software platforms and the pending business combination with M2i Global, Inc.
- On Feb. 4, M2i Global,Inc.along with Volato Group, Inc. announced that Titanium X has initiated its first shipment of titanium ore from Western Australia to the U.S. under its collaboration agreement.
NVIDIA (NVDA, $202.06, +.19%) & Nokia (NOK, $10.61, +2.91%)
- On April 13, Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN, $19.11, +.10%), a global provider of intelligent network solutions, today shared that RUCKUS® Networks and Nokia announced early access availability to a combined solution, allowing customers to accelerate adoption of their integrated Wi-Fi 7 and Fiber Optical Lan Solution.
- In an AI market obsessed with GPUs and stardust, Nokia (NOK) is quietly reminding investors that none of this magic moves without serious plumbing. While Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to headline its GTC 2026 “Woodstock of AI” showcase, the chip giant has already written a very real check to Nokia, committing a $1 billion investment to help rewire the world’s networks for 5G‑Advanced, 6G, and AI‑native workloads. The message is simple enough: GPUs may be the new rock stars, but networking is the stadium.
- Nvidia delivered strong fourth-quarter results recently, posting revenue of $68.1 billion, well above analyst expectations. Looking ahead, the company projects $7.8 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, reflecting continued robust demand for its AI chips even amid broader market headwinds.
- NVIDIA and Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) (March 11) announced a strategic partnership to develop and deploy the next generation of hyperscale cloud for the AI market, from AI natives to enterprises. NVIDIA will invest $2 billion in Nebius.
McDonald’s (MCD, $306.94)
- On April 6, McDonald’s Türkiye reinterprets a globally recognized message with a creative twist in its new campaign inspired by increased travel during holiday periods. Developed for out-of-home, digital, and print channels, the ‘Drink & Drive’ campaign positions McCafé® around the idea of alertness and attentiveness while driving. The brand’s iconic Golden Arches are also transformed into a bold road line, symbolizing the driver’s focus on challenging journeys.
Opendoor (OPEN, $5.35, +1.13%)
- April 16, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) announced that it will report first quarter 2026 financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026 following the close of the market on Thursday, May 7, 2026. On May 7, 2026, management will host our Financial Open House video livestream at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET) to discuss the company’s business and financial results. We invite shareholders to participate directly through Robinhood’s Say Technologies platform by visiting https://app.saytechnologies.com/opendoor-2026-q1
- Opendoor Technologies, a leading e-commerce platform for residential real estate transactions, reported financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. They highlighted the following: October 2025 acquisition cohort tracking as best-performing October in Company history; acquisitions increased 46% quarter-over-quarter while inventory days in possession reduced 23%.
- Opendoor continues to navigate a challenging housing backdrop characterized by still‑elevated mortgage rates and tight existing‑home inventories, which weigh on transaction volumes even as affordability slowly improves. The company’s focus on disciplined acquisition spreads, inventory turns, and ancillary services remains central to the investment debate as markets handicap the pace and magnitude of any 2026 housing recovery.
Tesla (TSLA, $392.50)
Elon Musk reportedly posted an image (April 15) on X about Tesla’s AI new A15 chip and suggesting that it was just one of many that he was going to have to offer.
Recently, it was reported that Elon Musk’s latest Texas-sized ambition is to build his own AI chip empire, and this time the factory floor will sit right next to the robots, rockets, and robotaxis that plan to use it. The Terafab project, a new semiconductor venture linking Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX, and xAI in Austin, aims to churn out custom chips for AI, humanoid robots, and space systems at a scale that makes today’s GPU land rush look like a warm‑up act. Learn more here.
There are open secrets on Wall Street, and then there is SpaceX’s long‑anticipated march toward the public markets, now reportedly via a confidential filing with the SEC that could set up a June debut. For a company that routinely broadcasts rockets into orbit, it is taking a decidedly hush‑hush approach to its paperwork
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE: SER, $2.10, +2.44%)
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE: SER) (www.serinatx.com) seems to have have just traded itself into Wall Street’s good graces, pairing fresh capital with a late-session pop that suggests investors are finally starting to connect the dots between polymer chemistry and portfolio returns. In Huntsville, Alabama, Serina Therapeutics announced definitive agreements for a private placement of common stock and pre-funded warrants that could bring in up to 30 million dollars in gross proceeds. The first 15 million dollar tranche is expected to close on March 20, 2026, with a second tranche of up to 15 million dollars anticipated by April 30, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.
What makes the deal stand out in a biotech tape crowded with discounts is the pricing: the securities are being sold at about 2.25 dollars per share, a roughly 68 percent premium to Serina’s March 17 closing price, signaling that insiders are willing to pay up for exposure to the company’s clinical agenda. The financing also adds board-level heft, with director Greg Bailey, M.D., stepping into a Co-Chairman role as he leads the investment, a move that effectively puts the capital and the governance on the same optimistic page. Learn more here.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX, $1.17)
- GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing vaccines and immunotherapies against infectious diseases and cancer, on April 14 highlighted the urgent challenges caused by the supply-constrained, global orthopoxvirus vaccine market and outlined the strategic positioning of its GEO-MVA vaccine candidate to address the limited supply and increasing global demand. David Dodd, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GeoVax, commented, “The mpox and smallpox vaccine market is not a future construct, it is an active, procurement-driven market with recurring demand and increasing strategic importance. It is also a market currently defined by supply concentration and limited surge capacity.” Mr. Dodd added, “We believe that, if approved, GEO-MVA, which is expected to begin a pivotal Phase 3 trial this year, is positioned to enter this market as a second-source MVA vaccine at a time when governments and global health organizations are actively seeking to diversify supply and strengthen preparedness. Our focus is on executing the next phase of development and aligning GEO-MVA with procurement frameworks that support both long-term stockpiling and rapid response capabilities.”
Walmart (WMT, $127.92, +.33%)
Walmart’s (WMT) latest move into digital health reads less like a retail side-hustle and more like an opening bell in the next leg of the GLP‑1 trade, with syringes, smartphones, and stock tickers all lining up on aisle 7.
The Sources
- IMF – World Economic Outlook, April 2026
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026imf - S&P Global – Global Economic Outlook: April 2026
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/global-economic-outlook-april-2026spglobal - Mutual of America – Economic & Market Perspective: April 2026
https://www.mutualofamerica.com/insights-and-tools/learning-center/emp/economic–market-perspective-april-2026mutualofamerica - Fortune – Iran peace talks are back on while the US hunts rogue ships in the Strait of Hormuz
https://fortune.com/2026/04/16/iran-peace-talks-us-rogue-ships-strait-of-hormuz/fortune - Emirates NBD – CIO Daily Update (Middle East peace talks, oil, markets)
https://www.emiratesnbd.com/en/cio-corner/cio_daily_updates_150426emiratesnbd - Investing.com – Focus Remains on Middle East Peace Talks, Yen Slides
https://www.investing.com/analysis/focus-remains-on-middle-east-peace-talks-yen-slides-200678673investing - Noor Capital / Noor Trends – Wall Street Retreats from Record Highs as U.S.-Iran Brinkmanship Threatens Ceasefire and Oil Supply
https://noortrends.ae/en/wall-street-retreats-from-record-highs-as-u-s-iran-brinkmanship-threatens-ceasefire-and-oil-supply/04/2026/noortrends - KHQ / Associated Press – S&P 500, Nasdaq end at records as markets bet on US-Iran accord
https://www.khq.com/national/s-p-500-nasdaq-end-at-records-as-markets-bet-on-us-iran-accord/article_723a47e6-6bc5-577d-b2fc-5579b3cb1b4d.htmlkhq - CNBC – S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at fresh records as investors weigh Middle East developments (April 14, 2026)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.htmlcnbc - CNBC – Stock market next week: Outlook for April 20–24, 2026
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/stock-market-next-week-outlook-for-april-20-24-2026.htmlcnbc - Yahoo Finance – Monday, April 20, 2026 (Week ahead, macro calendar)
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/monday-april-20-2026-210000811.htmlfinance.yahoo - Trading Economics – Week Ahead: April 20th
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar?article=29349&g=top&importance=2&startdate=2026-04-17tradingeconomics - The Rio Times – Key Market Events for the Week of April 20–24, 2026
https://www.riotimesonline.com/latam-pulse-pmis-retail-sales-ifo-april-2026/riotimesonline - X (Twitter) – MarketsDay post on retail sales consensus and data focus
https://x.com/marketsday/status/2045348424657322063x - Yahoo Finance – LIVE Stock Market Coverage: Stocks sink, oil surges as Iran war escalates (context on prior March moves)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz1uXgfZQRgyoutube - Economic Times – US Stock Market Today | Dow Jones | Nasdaq Live (mixed close, Middle East negotiations)
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/dow-jones-today-us-stock-market-live-updatesus-stock-market-live-dow-jones-nasdaq-live/articleshow/109318097.cmseconomictimes.indiatimes - Economic Times – US stocks end higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-live-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-trump-iran-war-israel-lebanon-war-ceasefire-talks/articleshow/109336526.cmseconomictimes.indiatimes
