AI High Flyers Trip as Oracle Shock Rattles Wall Street: S&P Slips, Nasdaq Stumbles, Medline’s Mega IPO Steals the Show - December 17, 2025 -( $DV $EPRX $MCD $MDLN $MODD $RIO $SER $TTC Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street limped into the midweek close on Wednesday with the swagger of a champion and the posture of someone who just read their margin statement. Tech led a broad retreat, AI darlings finally discovered that debt still has a cost, and traders spent the afternoon rediscovering value stocks and coffee in roughly equal proportions.

Indexes: Tech Trips, Small Caps Resist

The S&P 500 slipped 1.2%, shedding 78.83 points to finish near 6,721 as weakness in mega-cap AI and software names dragged the benchmark to its fourth straight loss and its sharpest pullback in nearly a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared slightly better, falling 0.5%, or 228 points, as more defensive blue chips helped cushion the blow from beleaguered tech components.

The Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the AI rethink, sliding 1.8% as investors questioned how much leverage it really takes to fund the future. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, dipped a milder 1.1%, giving small caps the rare pleasure of underperforming on the way up and outperforming on the way down.

Macro: Data Backlog, Fed Patience, Shutdown Hangover

A backlog of delayed economic reports continues to filter out after the prolonged federal government shutdown, giving traders a compressed firehose of labor and inflation data into early 2026. Recent releases have reinforced the narrative of a slowing but still resilient labor market, with the Fed signaling it has already cut rates three times for a total of 75 basis points and is now inclined to pause while it assesses the impact.

In his December 10 press conference, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that tariff-related price pressures should prove temporary, and that the recent government shutdown weighed on fourth-quarter activity but should be largely offset as the economy reopens and catches up. Futures markets now lean toward additional easing in the first half of 2026, but the message from the Fed is that investors will need to live without a rate cut every time a headline disappoints.

Tariffs, Shutdown, and Washington Theater

Tariff policy remained squarely in focus as President Trump’s earlier executive order authorizing a 25% tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil continued to loom over global trade flows. That broad tariff framework has been compounded by this week’s “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela, a move that has added geopolitical spice to an already complex energy market.

The recent extended U.S. government shutdown, which delayed key economic data and SEC operations, is now over, but its aftershocks still show up in the compressed release schedule and the catch‑up in IPO and regulatory activity into year-end. While Washington prepares for another prime-time speech from Trump highlighting tariff “victories,” markets continue to price in the uncertainty premium those policies carry for corporate margins and global supply chains.

Rates and the Yield Curve

Treasury yields nudged higher, with the 10‑year note hovering just above 4.156%, leaving the curve modestly inverted against the 2‑year in recent sessions, which closed lower at 3.493%. The slight back‑up in yields reflects expectations that, after three cuts this year, the Fed will move more cautiously while it digests the incoming backlog of labor and inflation data.

Even so, markets are still penciling in further easing in early 2026, a backdrop that has kept real yields drifting lower and provided a helpful tailwind for gold and other hedges against policy missteps. For now, the curve signals slower growth rather than imminent distress, but the message is clear: credit is no longer free, especially if a balance sheet is funding the AI revolution.

Commodities: Gold Glitters, Oil Lifts, Crypto Steadies

Gold extended its recent advance, closing up 1% to $4,374.60/oz. Silver joined the rally with an amazing move, rising about 5.20% to close at $66.62/oz. as investors sought cheaper leverage to the same macro story.

Oil prices gained on the day, with crude climbing roughly 2.87% to about 56.71 dollars a barrel as traders weighed Trump’s Venezuelan tanker blockade against a still‑projected surplus in global supply next year. Bitcoin traded lower in the mid‑80,000‑dollar range, reflecting a market that remains more interested in ETF flows and the trajectory of real yields than in any single headline.

IPOs and Corporate Deal Flow

The IPO market stole some of tech’s usual spotlight as Medline (ticker: MDLN, $41, +41.38%), the U.S. medical supply giant, made a notably large Nasdaq debut. The company raised about 6.26 billion dollars in its offering at 29 dollars a share after upsizing to roughly 216 million shares, marking the biggest U.S. and global IPO of 2025. Medline’s stock jumped more than 20% in early trading, valuing the company in the mid‑40‑billion‑dollar range and capping what has been a surprisingly robust year for U.S. listings despite the shutdown‑related disruptions earlier in 2025.

Beyond Medline, Wednesday brought plenty of market drama but relatively less in the way of marquee M&A headlines, as companies appeared more focused on defending balance sheets and explaining AI spending plans than announcing transformative deals. After a year of headline‑grabbing transactions, today’s deal tape looked more like a palate cleanser than a season finale.

Oracle: Debt, Data Centers, and a Tech Shudder

Oracle (ORCL) sat at the center of the day’s selloff after reports that private lender Blue Owl Capital walked away from a planned 10‑billion‑dollar financing for a new AI‑heavy data center, citing concerns about the software giant’s growing debt load and aggressive capital spending. Shares fell around 5–6% intraday, extending a slide that has already erased tens of billions in market value and made Oracle an unwilling poster child for the notion that the AI boom has run squarely into the limits of both physics and the debt markets.

The stock’s decline came on top of last week’s earnings‑related drop, when Oracle disclosed roughly 12 billion dollars in quarterly AI‑driven capex and signaled full‑year spending could reach 50 billion dollars, far above prior expectations. The resulting unease spilled over into other AI infrastructure plays, helping to drag the Nasdaq lower and forcing investors to ask whether “build it and they will come” still works when the financing costs are this high.

Eli Lilly (LLY): Weight-Loss King, Market Royalty

Eli Lilly’s (LLY, $1,041.79, -1.19%) shares continued to trade with the quiet confidence of a near‑trillion‑dollar healthcare giant, having significantly outpaced many tech favorites, including Nvidia, in recent weeks. Recent analyst commentary has highlighted how Lilly’s obesity and diabetes franchises have turned the company into a quasi‑growth stock with defensive cash flows, even as the broader market debates the durability of the GLP‑1 boom.

The company recently raised its full‑year 2025 earnings guidance to a range of 23.00 to 23.70 dollars per share on the back of surging demand for Zepbound and Mounjaro, with revenue growth north of 50% year over year. Lilly also increased its dividend, underscoring management’s view that these cash flows are more marathon than sprint, even if the stock’s trajectory has looked more like a 100‑meter dash.

NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom: AI Royalty, AI Anxiety

Nvidia (NVDA, $170.94, -3.81%) continues to hold its crown as the premier supplier of AI accelerators, but today its stock found itself dragged lower in sympathy with the broader AI complex amid worries about the sustainability of data‑center spending. While recent commentary has emphasized Nvidia’s entrenched leadership and ongoing demand, the Oracle‑sparked unease around heavy leverage in AI infrastructure cast a shadow over the group.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM, $276.96, -3.45%) has similarly benefited from the AI build‑out, with analysts recently hiking price targets and describing the foundry giant as a core long‑term holding tied to AI infrastructure demand. Still, with investors suddenly scrutinizing the financing behind every new data hall, even high‑quality beneficiaries such as TSMC and Broadcom faced pressure as markets reassessed how quickly AI‑related capital spending can grow without overtaxing balance sheets.

Apple, Tesla, Meta, Intel: Mega‑Cap Mood Swings

Apple (AAPL, $271.84, -1.01%) traded lower alongside the broader tech complex despite recent upbeat analyst calls that frame the company as an “AI toll booth,” poised to monetize a growing ecosystem of on‑device and cloud‑based intelligence. The stock remains well‑owned and widely viewed as a relatively defensive way to play AI, but on a day when investors worried about the cost of intelligence, even the toll collectors saw lighter traffic.

Tesla (TSLA, $467.26, -4.62%) also lost ground, caught between cyclical worries, elevated rates, and a risk‑off turn in high‑beta growth names. Meta slid as well, giving back some recent gains as markets rotated away from long‑duration ad‑ and AI‑driven stories toward companies with more immediate cash returns and less capex drama. Intel, which has been trying to reinvent itself as both a foundry and an AI player, felt the chill from the Oracle‑led rethink of big‑ticket data‑center expansion.

Nokia, McDonald’s, Rio Tinto: The Quieter Crowd

Nokia’s (NOK, $6.22, -1.11%) shares were comparatively subdued, trading more as a high‑beta macro derivative than a headline‑driven story in a session dominated by U.S. AI and software names. With 5G capex cycles already maturing, the stock remains more sensitive to global risk appetite and currency moves than to any single day’s U.S. data release.

McDonald’s (MCD, $318.69, +1.33%) shares rose in defensive fashion today.

Rio Tinto (RIO, $77.19, +1.58%) moved higher with the broader commodities complex, more closely tracking expectations for global growth and Chinese demand than the day’s U.S. tech melodrama.

Oklo, Opendoor, and Palantir: High Beta, Higher Scrutiny

Oklo (OKLO, $75.94, -9.06%) representing the new wave of advanced nuclear and energy innovation, traded with the kind of volatility that suggests investors love the story but remain acutely aware that commercialization and regulatory timelines are measured in years, not quarters. On a risk‑off tech day, that combination was always going to be a hard sell.

Opendoor (OPEN, $6.12, -9.06%), leveraged to the housing and rate cycle, continued to reflect investor skepticism that iBuying can thrive in a world where mortgage costs remain elevated and liquidity for more experimental business models is less forgiving.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3535, +3.12%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $6.29, +.64%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.25), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 16) that the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has issued a Notice of Allowance for U.S. Patent Application No. 17/888,131, titled “Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Ankara (rMVA) Expressing Spike, Membrane, and Envelope Proteins of SARS-CoV-2.”

GeoVax announced (Dec. 15) the publication of interim Phase 2 clinical data on its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The Research Letter in the British Journal of Haematology reports that GEO-CM04S1 met the study’s primary immunologic endpoint, generating significantly stronger and more durable SARS-CoV-2–specific T-cell responses than BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) – a population known for poor vaccine responsiveness.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.05) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.075), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, today announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced today that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.94), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.

On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $29.06) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.25, +.72%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

The Toro Company (NYSE: TTC, $80.43, +10.71%), a leading global provider of solutions for the outdoor environment, today reported results for its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year ended October 31, 2025. They exceeded Full-Year Expectations Driven by Strength in Underground Construction and Golf.

AI High Flyers Trip as Oracle Shock Rattles Wall Street: S&P Slips, Nasdaq Stumbles, Medline’s Mega IPO Steals the Show – December 17, 2025 -( $DV $EPRX $MCD $MDLN $MODD $RIO $SER $TTC Rise!)