U.S. equities traded in a cautious, rotation-driven pattern on Thursday, July 2, 2026, as investors digested a cooler June jobs report, four‑year‑high gasoline prices, and a holiday-shortened trading week ahead of the Independence Day market closure.

Headline market moves

The major averages showed mixed performance as the second half of 2026 got underway, with prior leadership in semiconductors and high‑beta AI names continuing to consolidate while more defensive and income‑oriented sectors saw incremental inflows.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) hovered near recent record territory but struggled to extend gains as profit‑taking hit prior winners into the long weekend.
• The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite faced pressure from continued weakness in the technology complex, particularly semiconductor and select AI‑hardware exposures.
• Volatility, as tracked by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), remained contained in the mid‑teens, consistent with a market that is churning rather than capitulating.

Semiconductor bellwethers and AI‑beneficiaries that powered the first‑half rally saw further mean reversion, as investors reassessed valuations and near‑term earnings expectations. Chip‑equipment names such as Applied Materials (AMAT) and memory‑related players like SanDisk (SNDK) have already experienced double‑digit drawdowns from recent highs, underscoring the sensitivity of the AI trade to macro data and positioning unwinds.

Macroeconomic backdrop: jobs, Fed, and inflation

The June nonfarm payrolls report landed squarely in the “cooler but not cold” camp, reinforcing the narrative of a labor market that is decelerating from 2025’s pace but still far from recessionary territory.

• Headline payrolls increased by roughly 57,000 jobs in June, about half of the 115,000 consensus expectation, marking a notable downside surprise versus economists’ forecasts..
• The unemployment rate ticked to around 4.2%, modestly above the Fed’s estimate of the longer‑run neutral level but not yet signaling stress; labor participation and wage growth indicators point to a gradual normalization rather than a cliff‑edge.
• The earlier ADP (ADP) private payrolls print – 98,000 jobs versus 110,000 expected – foreshadowed the softer official data and contributed to a cautious tone across risk assets ahead of the release.

For the Federal Reserve, the combination of moderating job creation and still‑elevated inflation keeps policy firmly in “data‑dependent” mode, with the risk skewed toward maintaining restrictive rates while keeping the door open to additional hikes later in 2026 if inflation re‑accelerates. Fed officials have signaled that while headline inflation pressures have eased somewhat, core services and shelter components remain sticky enough to warrant vigilance, narrowing the odds of near‑term cuts and preserving higher‑for‑longer real yields.

Energy, gasoline prices, and the consumer

Into the July 4th holiday travel surge, U.S. gasoline prices are holding near their highest levels in roughly four years, reflecting a mix of resilient demand, supply constraints, and refining spreads that continue to favor producers.

• National average pump prices remain elevated versus both 2025 levels and longer‑term norms, compressing disposable income for lower‑ and middle‑income households and reinforcing a bifurcated consumer landscape.
• Crude benchmarks such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate have eased modestly from recent peaks, but the passthrough to retail gasoline has lagged, keeping real‑time consumer sentiment sensitive to energy costs.
• Higher fuel prices into a peak‑travel weekend tend to support cash flows for integrated majors and refiners, including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), BP (BP), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), while pressuring margins for transportation, logistics, and discretionary‑heavy retail.

This backdrop amplifies the Fed’s challenge: the labor market is cooling just as real‑world costs like gasoline remain elevated, complicating the balance between inflation control and growth preservation.

Sector and style rotation

Under the hood, the trading tape continues to favor a tactical rotation away from crowded AI and semiconductor trades toward more reasonably valued cyclicals, financials, and select defensives.

• The Information Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) fell sharply in recent sessions, reflecting broad profit‑taking in megacap growth and high‑beta chip names.
• Conversely, Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC) captured inflows as investors leaned into more diversified earnings streams and less‑crowded positioning.
• AI‑linked chip leaders – spanning NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and equipment ecosystems including Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) – are seeing more two‑way flow, with longer‑term bulls using pullbacks to add while momentum‑oriented holders lighten exposure.

Style and factor dynamics

Value and quality factors are modestly outperforming pure growth and momentum as investors reassess duration risk and valuations under a higher‑for‑longer Fed regime.

• Dividend‑oriented and cash‑flow‑rich names in utilities, staples, and select financials are attracting incremental interest as portfolio ballast into the holiday.
• High‑duration, unprofitable growth – including pockets of early‑stage biotech and speculative tech – remains more vulnerable to macro disappointments and rate‑path repricing.

Essentially, the market is consolidating leadership rather than abandoning it, with AI and semis moving from a “one‑way trade” to a more nuanced, data‑driven regime where entry points and time horizons matter..

Holiday schedule and liquidity considerations

U.S. equity markets – including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq – will be closed on Friday, July 3, 2026, in observance of Independence Day, and will reopen Monday, July 6, returning to normal trading hours..

• The U.S. bond market will also be closed on Friday after an early close at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 2, further reducing cross‑asset liquidity into the weekend.
• Historically, holiday‑shortened weeks can amplify intraday moves as volumes thin and systematic flows dominate, particularly around major data prints such as today’s jobs report.

For institutional investors, this calendar argues for careful management of order size and timing, especially in less‑liquid small and mid‑cap names and in options structures tied to index and single‑stock volatility.

VP Watchlist Updates

Amwell® (NYSE: AMWL)

Amwell® (NYSE: AMWL) a leading provider of a comprehensive SaaS-based software platform for technology-enabled healthcare, closed at $9.27, up +10.30% over the last 5-days.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EPRX)

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EPRX, $6.69, up 4.27% over the last 5-days), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology designed to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for applications with significant unmet need, announced (May 5) the first Eosinophilic Esophagitis Endoscopic Reference Score (EREFS) data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a part of the RESOLVE trial evaluating EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). These data were also presented at the ongoing Digestive Disease Week (“DDW”) conference in Chicago. “The EREFS is an important, validated visual index of severity of EoE disease in the esophagus of patients. It measures edema, rings and strictures and other visible markers of disease often associated with symptoms. Today’s data demonstrated improvement in two key outcomes with EP-104GI in the treatment of EoE: first, that a full injection protocol of 20 injections resulted in more pronounced improvement than a protocol with fewer injections and less coverage area within the esophagus; second, with the higher number of injections, a consistent response in both the inflammatory and fibrotic sub scores of EREFS was observed,” said Dr. James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia. “This EREFS data being reported at DDW is consistent with the improvements we have seen in EoE symptoms and tissue health (EoEHSS) and suggests improvement in inflammation, fibrosis and the associated narrowing of the esophagus.”

Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: MODD)

Modular Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: MODD, $4.60, up + 11.65% over trhelvst 5-days), a leader in innovative, patient-centric insulin delivery, today (June 30) announced that the first patients have completed onboarding and training and are now actively using the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump in real-world settings. This milestone marks the transition of the Pivot pump from development into active patient use and represents a significant step in Modular Medical’s commercialization strategy. The Company will now begin collecting real world utilization data and user feedback to support broader adoption and continued product deployment optimization.

MODD announced ( June 26) that the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump is now shipping to physician offices for training. Upon completion of training, these pumps will be presented to potential patients in the next few days and weeks. The Company intends to expand the roster of practices that offer Pivot over the coming months. This is another significant milestone in the deployment of Pivot. Modular Medical looks forward to updating the market when these first patients are using the pump to deliver insulin. The Pivot pump is purpose-built for adults with diabetes on daily injections who have faced cost, complexity, and usability barriers with traditional pump systems. This group represents an estimated 70% of insulin-dependent adults who remain on multiple daily injections, a multi-billion-dollar opportunity within the diabetes technology market.

MODD announced (June 24) that the Pivot™ tubeless insulin patch pump is now commercially available. This marks the start of real-world patient use, and the Company’s transition to a commercial-stage medical device company. As only the second fully electronic, tubeless insulin pump available in the United States, Pivot is designed to make pump therapy simpler to learn and easier to live with. Its removable two-part design and 3 mL reservoir, intuitive interface, and flexible, wearable form factor support everyday activities, such as showering and sports, with no battery recharging required – all while maintaining clinical accuracy and connectivity. “Reaching commercial availability is a transformational milestone that marks Modular Medical’s transition from a development-stage company to a revenue-generating commercial business,” said Jeb Besser, Chief Executive Officer of Modular Medical. “As only the second fully electronic tubeless pump on the U.S. market, Pivot is positioned to serve a large, underserved ‘almost-pumper’ population. With first shipments beginning this week, we are focused on disciplined execution, as we scale adoption and seek to build long-term value for patients and shareholders.”

On (June 4) the launch of PivotPump.com, a patient-focused website designed to support individuals seeking a simpler path to insulin pump therapy. This launch follows the Company’s receipt of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) clearance in April 2026 for its Pivot™ insulin delivery system. The FDA clearance represents a significant milestone in Modular Medical’s strategy to expand access to insulin pump technology, particularly among individuals historically underserved by existing solutions. The Company remains on track for commercial launch in the fall of 2026. Pivot is designed for people living with diabetes who rely on daily insulin injections, as well as those who have encountered technological, usability, or cost-related barriers with traditional pump systems. The system emphasizes simplicity and ease of use for the patient and full access to clinical information for the clinician to reduce adoption friction. The PivotPump.com website provides accessible, educational content on insulin pump therapy and highlights the Company’s focus on real-world usability and supporting patients in evaluating and adopting pump-based diabetes care.

Similarweb Ltd. (NYSE: SMWB)

Similarweb Ltd. (NYSE: SMWB, $6.18, +20% over the last 5-days), a leading digital data and analytics company powering critical business decisions, announced (June 15) that it has surpassed $300 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and signed two multi-year enterprise contracts, each representing seven-figure ARR commitments. Collectively, these contracts represent approximately $47 million in Total Contract Value to be recognized over the next three years and were signed during the second quarter of 2026.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA (NVDA) closes at $194.83.

Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB)

Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB, $100.46, +24.50% over the last 5-days), a global leader in launch and space systems and Iridium Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: IRDM, $54.85, +24.21% over the last 5-days) a leading provider of global voice, data, and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) satellite services, announced (June 29) they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Rocket Lab will acquire Iridium. Rocket Lab will acquire all the outstanding shares of Iridium common stock for $54 per share in a cash and stock transaction. This represents an enterprise value for Iridium of approximately $8.0 billion.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG), a diversified holding company with interests in hospitality, real estate, and marketable securities. InterGroup consolidates its majority‑owned subsidiary Portsmouth Square, Inc., which owns the Hilton San Francisco Financial District hotel and related facilities, closed at $46.

The Sources

1. Yahoo Finance – “Stock market today: Dow notches fresh record, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Tesla sinks, semiconductors extend decline”
   https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-july-2-223136955.html
2. Yahoo Finance – “Cooler June jobs report to keep Fed focused on inflation with possibility of hikes later this year”
   https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/cooler-june-jobs-report-to-keep-fed-focused-on-inflation-with-possibility-of-hikes-later-this-year-124547980.html
3. Yahoo Finance – “Gas prices remain at their highest level in 4 years headed into July 4th weekend”
   https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/article/gas-prices-remain-at-their-highest-level-in-4-years-headed-into-july-4th-weekend-100000143.html
4. Yahoo Finance – “Stock Market News for July 2, 2026”
   https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-news-july-2-132600808.html
5. CNBC – “Stock market today: Live updates” (July 1–2, 2026 coverage)
   https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
6. CNBC – “U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%”
   https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html
7. New York Times – “U.S. Hiring Continues at a Steady but Slower Pace” (June jobs report live coverage)
   https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/02/business/jobs-report-economy
8. ExchangeRates.org.uk – “Global Markets Analysis July 2: AI Stocks Pause, Oil Falls And Fed Rate Bets Face Payrolls Test”
   https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46374/2026-07-02-global-markets-analysis-july-2-ai-stocks-pause-oil-falls-and-fed-rate-bet.html
9. Nasdaq Trader – “Equity Trader Alert #2026-31: U.S. Market Holiday – Independence Day”
   https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/TraderNews.aspx?id=ETA2026-31
10. USA Today – “Is the stock market open or closed on 4th of July? See schedule”
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/investing/2026/07/02/stock-market-open-closed-4th-of-july-2026/90754245007/