Tesla’s (TSLA) latest quarter delivered the kind of result that lets both the bulls and the skeptics claim victory, but only one group saw the stock pop more than 3% in after-hours trading. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 0.50, topping consensus estimates of 0.45, even as quarterly revenue of 24.9 billion landed just shy of the roughly 25.1 billion analysts were looking for.
That earnings outperformance came with a notable improvement in profitability, as Tesla’s gross margin climbed to about 20.1%, comfortably ahead of estimates closer to 17.1%, suggesting that cost discipline and software-heavy revenue are doing some quiet heavy lifting behind the scenes. Yet for all the margin math, investors seemed more focused on the narrative: an EV maker that insists it would rather be judged as an AI-and-robots platform than a mere car company.
EV Sales Slowdown Meets Robot Ambition
Under the hood, the core auto story looks decidedly less glamorous, with global deliveries falling to roughly 418,000 vehicles in the quarter, down about 15–16% from nearly 496,000 a year earlier. For the full year, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries slipped around 8% versus 2024, marking a second consecutive annual decline and underscoring the pressure from expiring U.S. tax credits, intensifying competition, and some high-profile controversies surrounding its CEO.
This sales soft patch comes as Chinese rivals and legacy automakers aggressively crowd the EV lane, forcing Tesla to lean on price cuts, new lower-priced trims, and a growing dependence on software and services to keep the growth narrative in motion. In response, management is effectively telling investors that the real story is shifting from sheet metal and batteries to autonomy, data, and humanoid robots—with factories increasingly resembling AI laboratories that happen to ship cars.
Optimus Steps Onto the Production Stage
The scene-stealer of the update was Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot project, which the company now expects to move into production before the end of 2026, with an eventual goal of churning out up to one million units per year. Management plans to introduce Optimus V3 in the first quarter of this year, framing it as a major leap toward factory-ready and, eventually, customer-ready robotic labor.
Tesla has already begun reshaping its industrial footprint around this vision, including plans to convert space previously used for higher-end vehicle lines into an Optimus-focused facility, with executives calling the humanoid platform a key long-term growth driver. While current deployments remain largely experimental—performing basic factory tasks and constantly being upgraded—Musk and his team are clearly positioning Optimus not as a side project, but as a pillar of Tesla’s future revenue mix.
Robotaxis, FSD, and the Subscription Pivot
If Optimus is the hardware star, Tesla’s robotaxi and Full Self-Driving efforts are the software engine that could define its valuation narrative for years. The company highlighted that subscriptions for its FSD service doubled in 2025, as it leans into a 99-per-month subscription model and phases out the large one-time purchase option in favor of recurring revenue.
Meanwhile, Tesla has reduced the use of safety drivers in its robotaxi operations in Austin, a move that some analysts call an important early step toward scaled paid autonomy, even as regulators continue to scrutinize how these capabilities are marketed and deployed. Street commentary suggests that the next pivotal chapter for the stock revolves less around how many cars Tesla sells and more around how quickly it can build a real business in robotaxis, subscriptions, and physical AI—without hitting too many regulatory speed bumps along the way.
Investors Bet on an AI-and-Robots Future
For all the headline pressure around slowing EV sales and a year in which net income fell sharply, Tesla’s Q4 performance still gave optimists fresh material, particularly the combination of an earnings beat, improving margins, and visible milestones around Optimus and autonomy. Some analysts describe the quarter as a “quality beat”—not huge in magnitude, but rich in signals that the business mix is tilting toward higher-margin, software-and-services-driven lines.
The big debate now is whether Tesla can execute on its ambitious timelines for robotaxis and humanoid robots faster than the market loses patience with its EV growing pains. For the moment, the stock’s positive reaction suggests that investors are still willing to pay for the possibility that Tesla’s factories will one day build as many robots as cars—and that, in true Wall Street fashion, the future remains just close enough to keep the story compelling.
The Sources
- Yahoo Finance – “Tesla stock climbs on Q4 earnings beat, Optimus robots on track for end-of-year production”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-climbs-on-q4-earnings-beat-optimus-robots-on-track-for-end-of-year-production-211804761.html - Finviz – “Tesla Stock Climbs After Q4 Earnings Report: Here’s Why”
https://finviz.com/news/290784/tesla-stock-climbs-after-q4-earnings-report-heres-why - MarketBeat – “Tesla Q4 Earnings Call Highlights”
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/tesla-q4-earnings-call-highlights-2026-01-28/ - Simply Wall St – “Tesla’s Robotaxis And Optimus Push The EV Maker Deeper Into AI”
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla/news/teslas-robotaxis-and-optimus-push-the-ev-maker-deeper-into-a - Fortune – “Tesla reveals 2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s xAI and officially …”
https://fortune.com/2026/01/28/tesla-earnings-2-billion-xai-investment-elon-musk-ends-model-s-model-x-optimus/ - The Verge – “Tesla hits a grim milestone: its second straight year of decline”
https://www.theverge.com/transportation/869603/tesla-q4-2025-earnings-revenue-profit-musk-robotaxis - Yahoo Finance – “Tesla profit tanked 46% in 2025”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-profit-tanked-46-2025-211611664.html - Teslarati – “Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q4-and-fy-2025-earnings-results/ - Tesla – “2025 Q4 Quarterly Update Deck” (PDF)
https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q4-2025-Update.pdf - Yahoo Finance Video – “Tesla earnings call: Musk explains ‘amazing abundance’ mission”
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-earnings-call-musk-explains-amazing-abundance-mission-233551778.html - Simply Wall St – “Tesla’s Robotaxis And Optimus Push The EV Maker Deeper Into AI” (duplicate analytical context)
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla/news/teslas-robotaxis-and-optimus-push-the-ev-maker-deeper-into-a - Business Insider – “Tesla Earnings Recap: Musk Talks XAI Investment, Optimus 3 …”
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q4-earnings-tsla-stock-live-updates-2026-1
