First Week of 2026 Market Recap: Index Moves, Fed Signals, Tariff Tension and the New Dealmaking Cycle - January 9, 2025 -( $DV $EPRX $FLYX $INTG $MODD $OKLO $OPEN $PLTR $SER $TSLA Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street closed the first full week of 2026 looking less like a Santa rally and more like a New Year’s rebalancing, as investors rotated briskly beneath mostly resilient headline indexes. The Dow (+2.3%) and small-cap Russell 2000 (+4.6%) outperformed, helped by cyclicals and domestically focused names, while the S&P 500 (+1.6%) churned to record territory and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq (+1.9%) wobbled but still moved upward as traders trimmed some of last year’s AI high‑flyers ahead of Friday’s payrolls report and a looming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.

On the macro front, the calendar was thick but distorted by the lingering effects of the federal shutdown, which has left key data releases arriving out of order. Delayed reports on the trade deficit and housing starts, along with backlogged business inventories, retail sales, and producer prices, reminded investors that the economic picture is still being stitched together after the fall’s Washington drama. On Friday, reports confirmed that the US economy added 50k jobs in December/2025, making out the worst year for annual job growth that since 2003 and outside of a recession.

Fed, yields, shutdown and tariffs

The December FOMC minutes showed a committee unified on the direction of easing but divided on the pace, encouraging the market to pencil in cuts while keeping an eye on every incoming jobs number. A steepening yield curve—now at its widest since 2021 as 2–10 and 2–30 spreads push higher—underscored expectations of lower front‑end rates against stubborn term premia, a combination that tends to flatter financials and hard assets more than long‑duration growth stocks,

The government shutdown has ended but its statistical hangover is very much alive, with agencies still catching up on months of delayed releases and pushing key data such as retail sales, PPI, import prices, and GDP updates deeper into January. Meanwhile, markets fixated on tariffs as the Supreme Court prepared to rule on President Trump’s international levies, a decision that could force hefty refunds to importers and potentially upend assumptions across equities, bonds, and crypto in one noisy Friday morning.

Commodities and crypto

Gold spent the week behaving like an over‑caffeinated safe haven, oscillating on profit‑taking but ultimately holding near record‑high territory north of 4500 dollars an ounce, with spot and futures benchmarks showing sizable year‑on‑year gains after last year’s parabolic run. Silver ($79.79/oz.) mirrored the volatility with sharper percentage swings, reminding traders that leverage cuts both ways when enthusiasm runs hot in the metals pits.

Oil prices ground higher, with front‑month WTI futures hovering in the high‑50s per barrel by Friday as geopolitical jitters and improving U.S. sentiment offset lingering concerns about global demand. The modest weekly advance kept energy shares in play but stopped short of igniting the kind of full‑blown inflation scare that would truly sour the Fed‑cut narrative.

Bitcoin, never one to let equities have all the volatility, traded near the low‑90,000‑dollar mark after an early‑year surge, leaving prices just below recent highs as traders braced for tariff‑related headline risk. With the yield curve steepening and debasement fears simmering, digital‑asset analysts framed 2026 as a year of “asymmetric upside”—Wall Street’s polite way of saying “fasten seat belts.”

IPOs and dealmaking

New‑issue activity returned from the holidays in respectable form, with healthcare, critical minerals, and SPAC‑style vehicles dotting the calendar more than dominating it. Among the pricings, oncology player Aktis Oncology, Atlas Critical Minerals (via uplisting), and blank‑check Lafayette Digital Acquisition Corp. I were slated around January 9, while a second wave of smaller listings spanning consumer, recycling, and decarbonization names lined up for the following week.

In mergers and acquisitions, the first week of 2026 kept up the drumbeat that bankers have been promising for months, as commentary pointed to a continued rebound in big‑ticket deal volumes and private‑equity‑driven secondary buyouts. Surveys of corporate executives and advisers showed confidence in deal flow staying strong or improving this year, with many framing 2026 as a potential “megadeal” chapter now that boardrooms have finally emerged from their post‑pandemic risk.

Large‑cap tech and AI complex

Across the AI and semiconductor complex, volumes were heavy and nerves slightly frayed as last year’s leadership names traded more like old pros than momentum darlings. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron remained at the center of AI‑infrastructure positioning, while options desks highlighted brisk activity in Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Palantir, Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, and Intel, a reminder that the market’s speculative impulse has not gone on New Year’s vacation.

Apple and Meta continued to straddle the line between “defensive growth” and “crowded trades,” attracting both dip‑buyers and valuation skeptics as analysts refreshed 2026 forecasts. Oracle and Intel, once pigeonholed as legacy tech, stayed in the AI conversation thanks to Oracle’s build‑out of a chip‑neutral cloud‑AI stack and Intel’s inclusion among actively traded AI‑hardware names, illustrating how generously the market is currently interpreting the term platform.

Autos, energy, materials and consumer names

Tesla ($445.01, +1.58% overs the last 5-days)retained its place on traders’ short list of 2026 favorites, featuring prominently in options flow and pre‑market activity even as the stock whipsawed with every tweak to EV, AI, and robotaxi narratives. The company continued to attract bullish research coverage framing it as a multi‑year platform story rather than a mere carmaker, a distinction Tesla’s valuation is more than happy to endorse.

In the old‑economy corner of the tape, Rio Tinto and other resource majors navigated a backdrop of firm metals prices and ongoing chatter around critical minerals supply, while oil’s grind higher kept energy names relevant if not exuberant. McDonald’s, a bellwether for global consumer demand and pricing power, remained in the analyst rotation as investors weighed how far the company can push menu innovation and digital initiatives before customers decide they’ve supersized enough.

Other notable movers and themes

Palantir (PLTR $177.49, +5.74% over the last 5-days) and Opendoor (OPEN, $7.29 +20.10% over the last 5-days) stayed on the radar of speculative growth investors as part of the broader software‑plus‑data and real‑estate‑tech trade, respectively, both surfing in the wake of shifting rates and renewed interest in differentiated business models. Activity in these names underscored how quickly money is willing to move down the quality curve when macro fears ebb, especially with the curve steepening and rate‑cut odds still priced generously.

Nokia, McDonald’s (MCD, $307.32, +1.34%), Rio Tinto, OKLO ($105.31, +35.36% over the last 5-days) and other more idiosyncratic stories contributed to a market that felt more “stock‑picker’s” than “index‑hugger’s,” even as benchmarks stayed within sight of their peaks. For the first full week of 2026, that may be the most telling signal: investors are no longer just buying the market—they are, with a touch of renewed discrimination, choosing their characters in what is shaping up to be another long and unpredictable.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $48.82, +26.81% over the last 5-days), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $8.59, +7.27% over the last 5-days), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.1656), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer.

GeoVax is heading into the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference week (“JPM2026”) in San Francisco, CA Jan. 12-15 with the kind of narrative biotech investors typically like to hear: a differentiated platform, large funded trials lining up, and multiple shots on goal in both infectious disease and oncology. The company is leaning into its MVA platform as a potential franchise engine rather than a one‑product science experiment. Specifically, investors can meet David Dodd, Chairman & CEO of GeoVax, during his presentation at the Hilton Union Square, 333 O’Farrell Street, Yosemite A (Ballroom Level), San Francisco, CA on January 13, 2026, 2:30 pm PST.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.6538) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.06)), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

On Jan. 7, M2i Global, Inc. along with Volato Group, Inc. (“Volato”) (NYSE American: SOAR), a technology-driven company, announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Titanium X, marking a major step forward in advancing domestic refining capabilities and securing the critical materials supply chain essential to U.S. industry and national security.

Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.

On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”

Volato Group, Inc. announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.54, +22.23% over the last 5-days), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.

On Dec. 10, Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $27.85, +5.97%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.07, +1.93%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

flyExclusive, Inc. (NYSE American: FLYX, $6.39, +58.96% over the last 5-days), one of the nation’s largest private jet operators and a certified Part 145 Repair Station, today announced it has signed an authorized dealership agreement with Starlink, becoming a certified dealer and installer for Starlink’s high-speed, low-latency aviation connectivity system.