All told, the first, abbreviated week of 2026 felt less like the start of a new market regime and more like a terse sequel: the same cast of AI heroes, EV skeptics, tariff subplots and Fed suspense, just with a new calendar on the wall. With the shutdown clock ticking toward January 30 and the FOMC set to take the stage at month‑end, investors may find that the market’s New Year’s resolution is not to be bolder, but simply to distinguish more ruthlessly between stories and cash flows—a distinction the tape tends to enforce, sooner or later. Yes indeed, Wall Street tiptoed into 2026 with the poise of a veteran trader after a long New Year’s Eve—functional, but not exactly eager to set new records. Major U.S. equity benchmarks chopped somewhat sideways with a hint of positive pix dust in the holiday‑shortened week ending Friday, January 2, with early optimism giving way to a more ambivalent close as investors weighed a stubbornly inverted yield curve, a looming FOMC meeting at month‑end, and the not‑so-distant prospect of yet another government funding drama in Washington.
Indexes and macro tone
The S&P 500 (6,858,46, +.19% close), Dow Jones Industrial Average (48,382.39, +.66% close), Nasdaq Composite (23,235.63, -.03%) and Russell 2000 (2,508.22, +1.06%) all managed to start the year in the green intraday, helped by strength in semiconductors and AI bellwethers, before fading into a choppy finish as liquidity remained thin and traders reconsidered how much good news had already been priced in after a strong 2025. The 10‑year Treasury yield hovered around the low‑4.19% handle and the curve stayed inverted, a reminder that while the Fed is closer to cutting than hiking, the path from restrictive to accommodative still runs through a full calendar of 2026 FOMC meetings starting January 27‑28. The data calendar for the first week of the year was light, with markets more focused on the upcoming employment and inflation prints than the modest handful of routine releases that trickled out through Friday.
Washington, shutdown risk and tariffs
In the background, investors monitored the next funding deadline after the longest shutdown in U.S. history ended in November, with current stopgap measures financing most agencies only through January 30 and keeping the risk of another political standoff very much alive. That prospective shutdown overhang joined ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty, as markets digested a year of aggressive Section 301 actions against China, reciprocal tariff pauses with key partners, and the prospect of higher “mirror tariffs” on Chinese EVs routed through Mexico ahead of a mandatory USMCA review by mid‑2026. For now, tariff policy enters 2026 in a kind of uneasy cease‑fire—less chaos than last spring’s headline shocks, but far from the rules‑based stability corporate planners might prefer.
Fed, yields and funding conditions
The Federal Reserve enters the new year on hold, with futures markets fixated on the January 27‑28 FOMC meeting and the first statement of 2026, even as policymakers have signaled a gradual rather than precipitous path toward rate cuts. Across the curve, short‑dated yields remain above longer maturities, with the 10‑year Treasury note trading near 4.19% and the 2‑year at 3.488%, underscoring a still‑restrictive stance even as inflation has cooled from its peak. For equity investors, that combination—an inverted curve, high but off‑peak policy rates, and a heavy 2026 Fed calendar—makes for a macro backdrop that rewards selectivity and punishes narratives not backed by hard earnings.
Deals, IPOs and corporate maneuvering
On the corporate front, the standout deal story remained BioMarin’s (BMRN, $59.45, +.03%) recent roughly $4.8 billion all‑cash agreement to acquire rare‑disease specialist Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD, $14.27, +.21%) at $14.50 per share, a transaction announced in late December but still a live talking point for healthcare and biotech desks heading into the first full trading week of 2026. The deal, expected to close in the second quarter pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, folds Galafold and Pombiliti/Opfolda into BioMarin’s portfolio and reinforced the sense that large‑cap pharma will continue to pay up for durable, late‑stage rare‑disease assets in the new year. The IPO pipeline on the NYSE and Nasdaq was quiet into the holiday, with no marquee new issues or blockbuster tech listings grabbing headlines in the first, abbreviated week of trading.
Mega‑cap, chips and AI
Among individual names, the market’s unofficial “AI cabinet”—Nvidia (NVDA, $188.85, +.13% owe thew last 5-days), Intel (INTC, $39.38, +8.90% over the last 5-days), Micron (MU, $315.42, +10.03% over the last 5-days), Broadcom, Oracle, Apple and Palantir—remained central to early‑2026 positioning, with semiconductors leading pockets of strength. Nvidia shares extended their 2025 momentum as investors leaned into its dominant data‑center GPU franchise, while Micron—cast by some as the “Nvidia of AI memory”—benefited from upbeat commentary around high‑bandwidth DRAM demand and record free cash flow in its latest fiscal 2026 update. Oracle, Broadcom and Palantir all featured prominently on early‑January watchlists, reflecting investor conviction that cloud infrastructure, custom silicon and data‑driven software remain core bottlenecks—and profit centers—for the AI buildout.
EVs, consumer names and cyclicals
Tesla (TSLA, $438.07, -9.75% over the last 5-days), by contrast, entered 2026 on the defensive, with shares slipping after the company reported another annual decline in vehicle deliveries, raising fresh questions about growth, competition and the long‑promised mass‑market inflection in its EV franchise. Consumer bellwethers such as McDonald’s traded more quietly into the new year down .78% on Friday to $303.26, with the Golden Arches serving more as a barometer of defensive positioning than a source of thematic excitement in a week dominated by AI, chips and macro. Cyclicals and materials, including global miner Rio Tinto (RIO, $81.43, +1.75% on Friday) reflected the usual early‑January tug‑of‑war between hopes for re‑accelerating global growth and the reality of still‑tight financial conditions and tariff‑clouded trade flows.
Other tech and special situations
Outside the megacap cohort, high‑growth tech remained in focus, with Palantir (PLTR $167.86, -13.55% over the last 5-days) featuring on lists of U.S. growth names to watch thanks to strong historical revenue expansion and expectations for continued demand in government and commercial analytics. Real‑asset adjacent stories like nuclear‑technology play Oklo (OKLO, $77.80, +8.42% on Friday), real‑estate platform Opendoor ($6.07, +4.12% on Friday) and old‑line telecom equipment maker Nokia (NOK, $6.51, +.62% on Friday) saw more idiosyncratic trading, with investors using the thin first week to adjust positions after 2025’s substantial dispersion across smaller‑cap, rate‑sensitive and speculative names. Intel’s inclusion alongside Nvidia and Micron in early chip rallies underscored how broadly markets are now treating AI as a sector‑wide uplift rather than a one‑ticker phenomenon, even if profit pools remain highly concentrated.
Commodities and crypto
In commodities, precious metals continued their high‑wire act. Gold closed at $,341.90/oz, +.02% on Friday, while silver’ closed at $72.265/oz. Crude oil prices drifted 1.39% lower to $57.33/bbl over the last 5-days, weighed down by softer demand concerns and the absence of fresh geopolitical supply shocks, while Bitcoin reversed part of its late‑December slump and traded higher to the $90k range alongside gold and silver amid speculation that easier Fed policy and Trump‑era fiscal and trade surprises could fuel another year of headline‑grabbing swings in digital assets.
Vista Partners Watchlist Updates
Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3849, +5.71% on Friday), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.
On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.
On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $7.55), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”
GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.207, +21.05% on Friday), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.
GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.6695, +4.61%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0692), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.
Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.
On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”
On Dec. 18, Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.
Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.
Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.078, +8.63%), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.
On Dec. 10, Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.
The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $26.28) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”
DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.86. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.
Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC, $23.01, +16.33%), a global market leader delivering intelligent energy storage systems, services, and asset optimization software, was recently recognized as one of the top three battery energy storage system providers worldwide in the newly released S&P Global Commodity Insights 2025 Battery Energy Storage System Integrator Report. The independent assessment measures companies based on installed and contracted energy storage capacity.
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