Wall Street’s Banner Year Ends with AI Titans, Obesity Drugs and Gold in the Spotlight – December 31, 2025 -( $AXSM $INBS $MODD $SOAR $TSM Rise!)

U.S. stocks wrapped 2025 with a modest pullback on Wednesday, as traders balanced a euphoric year in risk assets against the sobering reality of lofty valuations, rich precious metals, and a Federal Reserve that now cuts rates with all the enthusiasm of a dentist wielding a drill.

Indexes: Party Ends On A Downbeat

The S&P 500 slipped about 0.7% to roughly 6,845, giving investors a final reminder that even in great years, gravity still works; the benchmark still finished 2025 up roughly 16% as the AI and weight‑loss trade did most of the heavy lifting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.6% to near 48,063, trimming but not spoiling a roughly 13% annual gain that left the old‑economy barometer sitting near record territory. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite surrendered about 0.8% but still closed the year up about 20%, underscoring how mega‑cap chips and platforms again out‑ran the rest of the field. Small‑cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, eased in sympathy and ended the year with gains of roughly 11%, a respectable showing for companies trying to grow under higher real borrowing costs and higher real tariffs.

Macro: Yields Ease, Shutdown Deferred, Tariffs Don’t

In the bond market, the 10‑year Treasury yield hovered near 4.12%, a touch below the prior session and close to a three‑week low, as investors priced in a Fed that has already delivered three quarter‑point cuts this year and is now arguing over how dovish is too dovish. The curve remained flattened relative to history, with long maturities still only modestly above short‑term rates, suggesting markets see slower nominal growth even as inflation worries linger. A formal FOMC meeting is not on this week’s docket, but the official calendar shows the next policy gathering in late January, with the associated blackout period starting in mid‑month and ensuring that, for now, markets must make do without fresh rhetorical improvisation from Fed officials.

Washington, for once, is not the immediate problem: Congress and President Trump ended the record‑length government shutdown earlier this month with a stopgap bill that funds agencies through January 30, 2026, effectively kicking the can just far enough to let markets close the year in peace. Investors are already eyeing that next deadline as well as the year‑end expiration of several tax and health‑care provisions, which could re‑ignite fiscal brinkmanship just as the Fed tries to choreograph a gentle landing. Tariffs, however, remain very much in fashion: after a year of aggressive trade actions, the average U.S. tariff rate has jumped from roughly 2.5% to above 15%, a structural headwind that has weighed on deal‑making and complicated corporate planning even as equity indexes hit records.

Commodities & Crypto: Gold Glitters, Silver Sways, Oil Slumps, Bitcoin Sulks

Gold prices were little changed in thin year‑end trade but capped a historic run, with spot bullion near the mid‑$4,330s an ounce and on track for gains of more than 62% in 2025, fueled by central‑bank demand, expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and a weaker dollar. Silver, the metal that apparently did not get the memo about “moderation,” ended at $70.98/oz & closed the year having surged roughly 139%, delivering both spectacular returns and a master class in leverage‑driven reversals. Oil prices, by contrast, finished the year at $57.41/bbl down -21.50% YTD, as ample supply and a patchy global growth backdrop blunted OPEC rhetoric and left energy a notable laggard in an otherwise exuberant risk‑asset landscape.

Bitcoin, once marketed as “digital gold,” is currently behaving like “digital beta”: prices slid through the final week of December and now sit roughly 30% below October highs at ~$87,520, after a steady drawdown that accelerated in thin holiday liquidity. Daily losses of 2–3% in the run‑up to year‑end, coupled with broader weakness across crypto, highlight that the asset is tracking risk appetite more than safe‑haven flows even as physical precious metals notch record‑setting performances.

Corporate News: AI, Chips, Obesity Drugs And The Rest Of The Cast

Eli Lilly ($1,074.68, +39.21% YTD) once again wore the market’s heavyweight championship belt, even as shares traded only modestly lower today in quiet holiday action. The drugmaker heads into 2026 with consensus looking for roughly 60% sales growth, thanks to runaway demand for GLP‑1 obesity therapies and positive late‑stage data on an oral “obesity pill,” which together cement its reputation as the rare pharma company that makes both pills and headlines. Analysts have been busily ratcheting up price targets—several now stretch into the low‑$1,200s per share—while recent insider selling by a major shareholder drew some attention but did little to dent the broader bull case.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) closed the year on a firmer note, with the stock up roughly 1.44% at $303.89 in Wednesday trading as investors continued to reward its dominant position in leading‑edge foundry capacity and its leverage to Nvidia‑driven AI demand. Recent monthly revenue data showed a sequential slowdown but still nearly 25% year‑over‑year growth, and Bernstein’s decision to lift its price target to $330 underscored confidence that pricing power on sub‑5‑nanometer nodes will support margins into 2026 despite the occasional data‑breach headline.

Across the AI complex, Nvidia, Micron Technology, Broadcom and Palantir all spent the final session digesting outsized yearly advances rather than sprinting into the close. Nvidia ends 2025 as the world’s most valuable public company ($4.54T) and the undisputed leader in AI training and inference chips, with analysts estimating it controls more than 95% of that market and projecting the underlying data‑center opportunity could exceed $500 billion by 2028. Micron, riding what one analyst called “unexpectedly durable” pricing power in memory, has soared in 2025—its shares are up well over 200% year‑to‑date—while Broadcom has leveraged its ASIC franchise to become a top‑tier AI plumbing provider and a nearly $2 trillion‑market‑cap club candidate.

Palantir, once a polarizing defense‑tech name, now closes the year as one of the S&P 500’s standout performers, with shares up nearly 135% and fueled by a run of government and enterprise AI partnerships ranging from NATO and the U.S. Navy to tie‑ups with Nvidia, Anthropic, Databricks and others. The rally has been powerful enough that Palantir’s return profile in the AI trade now exceeds that of some better‑known chip titans, even as persistent insider selling gives skeptics something to talk about between holiday parties.

Apple and Tesla, two long‑standing pillars of retail portfolios, largely followed the broader growth tape into year‑end, giving back a little ground Wednesday after strong months that saw both benefit from revived enthusiasm around AI‑enhanced devices and EV software platforms. For Apple, attention remains fixed on how quickly AI‑infused hardware cycles can re‑accelerate revenue, while Tesla faces the more complex task of convincing investors that robotaxis, lower‑priced vehicles and its humanoid “Optimus” program will justify a valuation that still assumes multiple future industrial revolutions per decade.

Meta Platforms also eased with the broader tech cohort but remain within striking distance of record highs, as Wall Street increasingly treats them as core AI infrastructure and advertising‑plus‑compute plays rather than mere social media and chip vendors. Intel, meanwhile, ended the year with a rare glow: shares rose after Nvidia finalized a roughly $5 billion strategic stake, cementing a deepening partnership that investors hope will accelerate Intel’s foundry ambitions and validate its turnaround narrative

Away from the AI limelight, McDonald’s, Nokia, Rio Tinto, Oracle, Oklo and Opendoor saw more muted, year‑end liquidity‑thinned moves, their stocks largely oscillating with sector ETFs as investors focused on positioning rather than stock‑specific catalysts. Oracle remains under scrutiny for its massive, multi‑year OpenAI cloud agreement, which has become both the centerpiece of its growth story and a single‑customer concentration risk, while Rio Tinto’s fortunes continue to hinge on metal prices and Chinese demand, and Opendoor’s on a rate environment that finally appears to be drifting from headwind toward crosswind.

Deals, IPOs And Tariff Cross‑Currents

On Wednesday itself, the NYSE and Nasdaq IPO calendars were effectively dark, with no major offerings pricing in the final session and companies preferring to wait for cleaner windows in 2026 rather than compete with holiday‑thinned liquidity and year‑end tax‑planning flows. As bankers tell it, the combination of higher tariffs, unpredictable antitrust enforcement and episodic market volatility has made boards more circumspect about both going public and pursuing large, cross‑border tie‑ups, at least until there is more visibility on the 2026 policy path.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3641, +.86%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $7.55), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.1710), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $.64) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.07), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, recently announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

Volato Group, Inc. today (Dec. 29) announced the appointment of Alan D. Gaines to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Gaines will also serve as Chairman of the Audit Committee.

On Dec. 23, Volato Group, Inc. announced preliminary financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting continued execution against its strategic and balance sheet objectives. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Volato expects to report revenue between $27 million and $28 million. For the full year 2025, the Company anticipates total revenue between $78 million and $79 million, with net income of $6 million to $8 million. These results reflect a year of meaningful progression aligning operational performance with Volato’s long-term growth initiatives and advancing its pending merger with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). During 2025, Volato also made substantial progress strengthening its balance sheet. As of September 30, 2025, the Company reduced total liabilities to $9.5 million, satisfying the debt reduction condition required under its pending merger agreement with M2i Global, Inc. (OTC: MTWO). Volato expects continued improvement in its capital structure as it advances toward a targeted first-quarter 2026 closing of the transaction. “Our 2025 results reflect a year of transformation and disciplined balance sheet execution,” said Mark Heinen, Chief Financial Officer of Volato. “We made significant progress reducing liabilities while sharpening our focus on scalable, technology-driven businesses that are designed to complement and strengthen the M2i Global platform over the long term.”

On Dec. 18, Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced recently that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $1.913), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.

On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $28.39, +3.69%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.44, -.52%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Intelligent Bio Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: INBS), a medical technology company delivering intelligent, rapid, non-invasive testing solutions, raise +132.44% to close at $9.53.

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXSM, $182.64, +22.75%), a biopharmaceutical company leading a new era in the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted for filing the Company’s supplemental New Drug Application (NDA) for AXS-05 (dextromethorphan HBr and bupropion HCl) for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease agitation, and has granted the application Priority Review designation. The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target action date of April 30, 2026.

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