AI Darlings, Santa Rally Dreams, M&A, Tariff Fears and a Yield Curve That Still Won’t Sit Still: Inside This Week’s Market Cross‑Currents - December 19, 2025 -( $BMRN $DV $EPRX $FOLD $LLY $META $NOK $NVDA $RIO $TSLA Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Wall Street investors wrapped the week ending Friday, December 19, 2025 with dreams of sugarplums and a Santa Rally in their holiday minded heads & looking like it had just survived a very expensive group therapy session: growth darlings, rate‑sensitive cyclicals, and hard‑asset fans all got something to cheer, even if no one left entirely convinced that 2026 will be as painless as the price action currently implies.

Indexes and Macro Cross‑Currents

U.S. equities delivered a choppy but ultimately constructive week, with the Dow and Russell 2000 grinding higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lagged modestly as investors rotated away from the most crowded AI trades. That pattern fit a broader macro script in which cooling—but still elevated—inflation, a cautious Federal Reserve and still‑sticky tariffs left investors toggling between “soft landing” optimism and “late‑cycle” nerves, sometimes in the same trading session.

On the macro front, shutdown‑delayed November inflation data showed headline prices rising about 2.7% year‑over‑year, with core inflation near 2.6%, reassuring doves that the disinflation trend remains largely intact even as the labor market cools. The Fed’s recent rate‑cutting path remained a live debate, with officials signaling patience after a string of quarter‑point cuts while futures markets quietly pulled forward expectations for the next move into the spring, leaving the yield curve slightly less inverted but still firmly in “not normal” territory.

Fed, Tariffs and the Shutdown

Fed officials spent the week reminding markets that while the central bank is no longer the villain in this year’s drama, it is also not ready to audition for the role of fairy godmother. Policymakers highlighted that tariffs have added roughly half a percentage point to inflation and stalled progress toward the 2% goal, reinforcing expectations that the next FOMC decision—and its dot plot—will stay data‑dependent, with investors broadly eyeing the April 2026 meeting for the next likely cut rather than demanding fireworks in January.

The government shutdown’s data distortions lingered in the background, with officials openly cautioning that some recent inflation and labor readings should be handled with the same skepticism usually reserved for IPO roadshow slides. Corporate finance chiefs, meanwhile, continued to cite tariffs as a top risk for 2026 margins and pricing, even as equity markets mostly treated the ongoing trade skirmishes as background noise rather than a new plot twist.

Rates, Curve and Cross‑Asset Moves

Treasury yields drifted lower early in the week before stabilizing as traders digested the inflation print and recalibrated odds of the next Fed move, nudging the curve toward a slightly flatter, still‑inverted configuration that says “late cycle” more than “impending recession.” Financials actually welcomed the more measured rate‑path rhetoric, with some commentary suggesting that a less aggressively inverted curve is enough to keep net interest margins from eroding further, even if the golden era of fat spreads remains a fond memory. The 2-yr yield ended at 3.49% and the 10-yr yield ended at 4.14%.

In commodities, gold climbed toward fresh all‑time highs, trading to a close of $3,368.70 per ounce after starting the prior week near $4,215, as investors sought a hedge against both tariff‑stoked inflation and the slow drip of global rate cuts. Silver extended its own remarkable run coming at $67.395/oz. Bitcoin (currently in the $88k range) continued its role as “levered macro sentiment,” bouncing higher alongside lower yields and renewed risk appetite, even as traditional safe havens like bullion reminded investors that the old hedges are not ready to cede the stage to the new.

AI Bellwethers, Chips and Big Tech

It was another week in which the AI complex behaved less like a secular mega‑theme and more like an over‑caffeinated momentum factor, with NVIDIA (NVDA, $180.99, up 3.41% over the last 5-days), Broadcom (AVGO, $340.36, down 5.44% over the last 5-days) TSMC, Micron, and Palantir all featuring prominently on traders’ screens. Research chatter stayed upbeat on the group—highlighting AI infrastructure, cloud demand and data‑center silicon—yet price action turned two‑sided as investors weighed lofty expectations against a less aggressive Fed and a modest back‑up in yields, leaving the cohort trading more like a high‑beta vehicle than a serene long‑duration growth story. Micron Technology (MU, $265.92, +10.28% over the last 5-days) did not just clear Wall Street’s bar this quarter; it politely relocated it to a much higher floor and sent analysts a change-of-address card. Micron’s latest forecast calls for revenue of about $18.7 billion dollars next quarter, almost one-third higher than what analysts had penciled in and nearly double consensus profit expectations on an adjusted per-share basis. The company’s first-quarter results already beat estimates, with sales of roughly $13.6 billion dollars and adjusted earnings topping forecasts, setting the stage for what looks less like a recovery and more like a regime change in the memory business.

Apple and Meta (META, $658.77, +2.26% over the last 5-day) navigated the week as barometers of mega‑cap risk appetite, with flows oscillating between “safe big tech compounder” and “source of funds” depending on the day’s macro narrative. Taiwan Semiconductor and other foundry‑linked names reflected the market’s ongoing willingness to underwrite a multi‑year AI hardware build‑out—even as the short‑term tape admitted that perfection has already been generously priced into several of the usual suspects.

Individual Names: From Lilly to Tesla

In healthcare, Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,074.44, +4.28%) remained a market darling in the obesity‑and‑Alzheimer’s trade, buoyed by expectations of durable growth even as investors debated how much of that good news is already embedded in the valuation. The stock traded like a high‑quality, high‑duration asset: sensitive to every twitch in yields and Fed rhetoric but still broadly underpinned by a pipeline that investors increasingly treat as a quasi‑consumer‑staples franchise in disguise.

Among the broader tech and growth cohort, Oracle & Intel aappeared on “high‑dollar‑volume to watch” screens as traders leaned into idiosyncratic catalysts ranging from cloud adoption to AI‑driven analytics demand. Tesla (TSLA, $481.20,+1.24% over the last 5-days) spent the week repricing yet again around its latest autonomy and robo‑taxi narratives, a reminder that the line between car company and tech story remains delightfully blurry whenever the macro backdrop calms down enough for speculative imagination to reassert itself.

Old Economy: McDonald’s, Rio Tinto, Nokia and Oklo

Defensive and cyclical names shared a rare moment of joint relevance, with McDonald’s (MCD, $315.84) benefiting from its usual role as a cash‑flow machine for nervous investors while Rio Tinto (RIO, $78.32, +3.52% over the last 5-days) traded as a liquid proxy on global growth expectations and the industrial‑metals angle of the green‑energy build‑out. Nokia (NOK, $6.50, +3.67%) continued to operate on the periphery of the AI narrative as a beneficiary of network and 5G infrastructure demand, even if its share price still moves at a much more pedestrian pace than its flashier Silicon Valley cousins

In the energy and nuclear‑innovation niche, Oklo (OKLO, $83.33) kept the market’s attention as a speculative play on advanced reactors and data‑center power demand, a theme that conveniently straddles both ESG skepticism and AI euphoria. Opendoor (OPEN, $6.36) remained tethered to the housing‑cycle and rate story, with investors debating whether a gentler Fed and plateauing mortgage costs can meaningfully revive i‑buyer economics or simply slow the bleeding.

Deal Flow, IPOs and Corporate Maneuvers

Dealmakers finally emerged from their rate‑shock bunkers, with BioMarin (BMRN, $61.15, +14.71% over the last 5-days) grabbing headlines by agreeing to acquire Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD, $14.18, +30.33% over the last 5-days) in a roughly $4.8 billion all‑cash transaction at $14.50 per share, a classic rare‑disease bolt‑on that adds scale and pipeline heft ahead of an expected 2026 close. The agreement, unanimously approved by both boards, signals that large‑cap biopharma is once again willing to pay up for late‑stage assets in pursuit of post‑patent growth, a trend that could extend into 2026 if financing conditions stay benign.

On the IPO front, the calendar remained open if not exuberant, with smaller international and specialty listings carrying the torch while the mega‑unicorns continue to monitor valuations from the sidelines. NYSE and Nasdaq pipelines showed a steady stream of modest‑sized deals and filings—more a sign of a normally functioning capital market than a full‑blown reopening of the speculative window—but enough to keep bankers optimistic that 2026’s first half could look busier than 2025’s first.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3410), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $6.56, +4.96% over the last 5-days), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.1592), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced (Dec. 19) that it has entered into definitive securities purchase agreements with several institutional and individual investors for the purchase and sale of approximately 13.2 million units, each comprised of one share of the Company’s common stock and warrants, as described below, to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, at a price of $0.245 per unit in a public offering. The Company will issue warrants to purchase up to approximately 26.5 million shares of common stock. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.245 per share, will be exercisable immediately following the date of issuance and will have a term of five years following the date of issuance. Roth Capital Partners is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The gross proceeds to the Company from this offering are expected to be approximately $3.2 million, before deducting the placement agent’s fees and other offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about December 22, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 18) the publication of a peer-reviewed article in Frontiers in Immunology titled: “Multi-antigen MVA-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, GEO-CM04S1, induces cross-protective immune responses to ancestral and Omicron variants.” The study provides definitive preclinical evidence that GeoVax’s multi-antigen COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GEO-CM04S1, delivers full cross-variant protection, driven predominantly by robust T-cell responses, even in the absence of neutralizing antibodies. The findings reinforce the design philosophy behind GeoVax’s MVA-based, multi-antigen platform and provide mechanistic insight that is increasingly relevant for immunocompromised individuals, who often fail to respond optimally to the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.

GeoVax announced (Dec. 17) the successful completion of fill-finish for the initial clinical batch of GEO-MVA, its next-generation Mpox/smallpox vaccine. The product has now entered final release evaluation, the concluding quality-control and compliance process required before shipment for clinical use, positioning the Company for Phase 3 immunobridging trial start-up activities in Q1 2026. Fill-finish – the sterile, cGMP-regulated process of filling, sealing, and packaging vaccine vials – marks the last manufacturing step before a vaccine may enter clinical study supply channels. With fill-finish complete and GEO-MVA now undergoing final release evaluation, GeoVax has moved into the final pre-clinical-deployment phase of its EMA-aligned clinical program. In June 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Scientific Advice confirmed that a single Phase 3 immunobridging study demonstrating immune comparability to the approved MVA vaccine, Imvanex(R), would be sufficient to evaluate GEO-MVA’s efficacy. This provides a clear, accelerated regulatory path to licensure. This milestone coincides with increasing Mpox activity globally – including expanding Clade I outbreaks in Africa and emerging cases in the United States – exposing vulnerabilities associated with global dependence on a sole foreign MVA vaccine supplier. GEO-MVA is designed to expand supply, diversify sources, and strengthen biodefense infrastructure.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.08) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.0795), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, today announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

On Dec, 18 Volato Group, Inc. and M2i Global, Inc. announced that they applaud the recent December 11, 2025 announcement from the U.S. Department of State whereby Pax Silica, a U.S.-led strategic initiative to build a secure, prosperous, and innovation driven silicon supply chain—from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and logistics, was formed.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) announced today that it has set a preliminary date of February 26, 2026 and preliminary record date of January 17, 2026 for a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed merger with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) and related matters. The preliminary meeting date and record date remain subject to applicable regulatory and exchange requirements, including the effectiveness of Volato’s Registration Statement on Form S-4 (File No. 333-292132) (the “Registration Statement”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and the mailing of definitive proxy materials to shareholders. The proposed merger creates a combined company built for scale. M2i Global brings a platform focused on critical minerals and national supply chain resilience, while Volato contributes proven aviation technology, software capability, and an established track record of operational execution. Together, the companies aim to participate in a U.S. critical minerals market estimated at more than $320 billion annually.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) with M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.75), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 11, Serina announced the appointment of Joshua Thomas, Ph.D., as Vice President and Head of Chemistry. He will oversee internal and external chemistry efforts to optimize POZ-based candidates, supporting efficient translation from discovery through development.

On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $27.40) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $11.28, +3.11% over the last 5-days. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Rocket Lab Corporation (Nasdaq: RKLB, $59.92, +11.05%), a global leader in launch services and space systems, today successfully launched the STP-S30 mission for the U.S. Space Force’s (USSF) Space Systems Command (SSC) – completing the launch five months ahead of schedule and playing a critical role in advancing technologies that ensure U.S. superiority in space.

AI Darlings, Santa Rally Dreams, M&A, Tariff Fears and a Yield Curve That Still Won’t Sit Still: Inside This Week’s Market Cross‑Currents – December 19, 2025 -( $BMRN $DV $EPRX $FOLD $LLY $META $NOK $NVDA $RIO $TSLA Rise!)

Indexes and Macro Cross‑Currents

Fed, Tariffs and the Shutdown

Rates, Curve and Cross‑Asset Moves

AI Bellwethers, Chips and Big Tech

Individual Names: From Lilly to Tesla

Old Economy: McDonald’s, Rio Tinto, Nokia and Oklo

Deal Flow, IPOs and Corporate Maneuvers

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Sources

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