Jenga Tower Markets: Soft Jobs, Inverted Yields and an AI‑Heavy Top Floor - December 16, 2025 -( $AAPL $AFRM $AVGO $EPRX $INTG $META $NVDA $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $RIO $TSLA $VMAR Rise!) - Vista Partners LLC

Markets ended Tuesday with a distinctly defensive posture, as investors digested a soft jobs report, a stubbornly inverted yield curve, and a commodity complex that looked more like late‑cycle indigestion than reflation. The tone was less panic than fatigue, with large‑cap tech once again asked to hold up a market that increasingly resembles a Jenga tower built on interest‑rate expectations and AI optimism.

Major index performance

The S&P 500 eased about 0.2% to roughly 6,800, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped about 0.6% to near 48,100, reflecting pressure in cyclicals and financials. The Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out a modest gain of around 0.2% as megacap tech provided a thin cushion, but the small‑cap Russell 2000 fell about 0.45% to 2,519.30, underscoring lingering skepticism about the domestic growth outlook. Underneath the surface, decliners handily outpaced advancers, leaving the session feeling weaker than the main benchmarks suggested.

Macroeconomic data and Fed outlook

The day’s narrative was dominated by the delayed November jobs report, which showed nonfarm payrolls expanding by only about 64,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to roughly 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years. That combination of slowing job creation and rising joblessness sharpened concerns that the labor market is gliding from “cooling” to “soft,” even as wage pressures continue to ease. In the background, Fed officials have framed their December cut to a 3.50%–3.75% federal‑funds target as a pivot toward balancing inflation risks with emerging labor‑market fragility, while insisting that any further easing in 2026 will depend squarely on the data.

Yield curve and interest rates

Rates markets reacted in textbook fashion to the softer data, with buying in longer‑dated Treasurys nudging the 10‑year yield down toward the low‑4.16% area, while the 2-year came in lower at 3.50% and keeping the curve modestly inverted. That configuration signals a market still convinced that additional cuts are more likely than hikes over the next year, even if policymakers themselves refuse to pre‑commit beyond a cautious “wait and see” stance. Fed‑funds futures continued to price multiple cuts through 2026 if the slowdown gathers pace, transforming each incremental employment or inflation print into a referendum on whether “higher for longer” has quietly become “lower, carefully.”

FOMC calendar and policy communication

The Federal Reserve’s most recent policy decision came earlier this month, when officials delivered a widely expected 25‑basis‑point cut and retained their 2% inflation target, while tweaking language to acknowledge a more “balanced” risk profile between prices and employment. With the December meeting in the rear‑view mirror, attention now shifts to speeches and minutes as investors hunt for any hint of the Committee’s tolerance for a rising jobless rate and the threshold for accelerating cuts. The next full FOMC gathering in late January is now positioned as a key checkpoint on whether the Fed will treat recent labor softness as noise or the first stanza of a more familiar downturn ballad.

Trade policy and tariffs

Tariff policy contributed more to background anxiety than breaking headlines, with no major new measures unveiled on Tuesday but continued debate over the long‑run impact of existing levies on supply chains and prices. Fed and regional‑bank commentary has generally characterized the inflation impact of past tariff rounds as more gradual and contained than initially feared, though officials remain wary of renewed protectionist pushes in an election‑charged environment. Markets, for their part, are treating tariff risk as a slow‑burn structural issue that could flare up but does not yet warrant daily repricing of equities or credit.

Notables

Here’s how they finished: Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,054.29, -.74%), TSMC (TSM, $286.87, -.30%), NVIDIA (NVDA, $177.72, +.81%), Apple (AAPL, $274.61, +.18%), Tesla (TSLA, $489.88, +3.07%), Broadcom (AVGO, $341.30, +.44%), Meta (META, $657.15, +1.49%), Nokia (NOK, $6.29, +1.25%), McDonald’s (MCD, $314.50, -1.33%), Rio Tinto (RIO, $75.99, +.22%) Oracle (ORCL, $188.65, +2.02%), Intel (INTC, $37.31, -.53%), Oklo (OKLO, $83.51,+1.43%) Opendoor (OPEN, $6.73, +4.02%), Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM, $73.39, +11.77%) and Palantir (PLTR, $187.75, +2.46%).

IPOs and equity capital markets

The new‑issue market stayed open, if selective, with the week’s calendar featuring deals such as Andersen Group’s listing on the NYSE and Medline’s planned Nasdaq IPO, alongside smaller offerings that will test investors’ willingness to underwrite growth stories into year‑end. Additional niche deals, including Libera Gaming Operations later in the week, suggest that while risk appetite is more discerning, investors are still willing to entertain new paper in sectors with clear narratives and credible cash‑flow paths. Overall, 2025’s IPO haul places the year firmly in the “reopened” camp after the post‑pandemic drought, even if the market remains a step or two short of outright froth.

Mergers, acquisitions, and deal mood

Dealmakers continued to scribble furiously as 2025’s M&A tally moves toward one of the largest on record, with volumes around the 4.5 trillion dollar mark and landmark transactions in media, tech, and healthcare setting the tone. Analysts and bankers alike have framed this as the early innings of a multi‑year consolidation wave, particularly in AI‑adjacent industries where scale, data, and capital intensity increasingly act as moats. While Tuesday did not deliver a single blockbuster announcement to dominate the tape, the steady drumbeat of mid‑ and large‑cap combinations kept corporate‑finance desks busy and reminded investors that CEOs are still willing to write big checks when the strategic logic is compelling.

Commodities: gold, silver, oil, bitcoin

The commodity complex opted for understatement rather than spectacle, with gold edging fractionally lower—down 0.07% around the low‑4,332.20 per ounce—after a powerful multi‑month run that has left the metal trading near record highs. Silver fared worse on the day, slipping .64% closing at $62.54/oz. and surrendering some of its recent outperformance, but it remains dramatically higher than a year ago, still reflecting the twin pulls of industrial demand and precious‑metal enthusiasm. In energy, crude oil softened again to $55.17/bbl, a four-year low and extending a month‑long slide (about 8%) that has quietly tightened the screws on producers’ capital‑return promises, even as consumers enjoy a late‑season break on fuel costs.

Bitcoin (BTC), that perennial sentiment weathervane masquerading as “digital gold,” hovered upward in the $87,000s after a recent pullback from record peaks, trading more like a high‑beta macro option than a staid store of value. Volatility there has mirrored the push‑and‑pull between lower‑rate optimism and growth worries, with crypto bulls arguing that any sustained Fed easing cycle ultimately fattens risk premia across the digital‑asset complex. For now, though, bitcoin’s role seems less inflation hedge and more emotional barometer for a market still trying to decide whether the next big move belongs to earnings, the economy, or the central bank.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3428), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, announced (Dec. 10) that it had priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $6.25, +1.46%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.2865), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, announced today (Dec. 16) that the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has issued a Notice of Allowance for U.S. Patent Application No. 17/888,131, titled “Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Ankara (rMVA) Expressing Spike, Membrane, and Envelope Proteins of SARS-CoV-2.”

GoeVax announced (Dec. 15) the publication of interim Phase 2 clinical data on its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The Research Letter in the British Journal of Haematology reports that GEO-CM04S1 met the study’s primary immunologic endpoint, generating significantly stronger and more durable SARS-CoV-2–specific T-cell responses than BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) – a population known for poor vaccine responsiveness.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.05) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.075), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, today announced key developments in its pending all-stock merger with M2i Global, Inc.. Volato has filed the Registration Statement on Form S-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), following the SEC’s completion of its review of the initial confidential submission. With the reopening of federal agencies following the recent government shutdown, both companies now anticipate closing the merger in the first quarter of 2026, pending completion of SEC review and shareholder approval.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO) announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $2.92), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 10,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $31.80, +7.14%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.83. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Vision Marine Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: VMAR, $.976, +156.77%) today announced that its Nautical Ventures division has entered into a commercial lease and purchase option agreement for the marina property that it currently leases at 4470 Ravenswood Road in Dania Beach, Florida, known as the Anglers Avenue Marine Center. This location secures a strategic waterfront asset in Fort Lauderdale, a central point of consumer activity in the region.

Jenga Tower Markets: Soft Jobs, Inverted Yields and an AI‑Heavy Top Floor – December 16, 2025 -( $AAPL $AFRM $AVGO $EPRX $INTG $META $NVDA $OPEN $ORCL $PLTR $RIO $TSLA $VMAR Rise!)

Major index performance

Macroeconomic data and Fed outlook

Yield curve and interest rates

FOMC calendar and policy communication

Trade policy and tariffs

Notables

IPOs and equity capital markets

Mergers, acquisitions, and deal mood

Commodities: gold, silver, oil, bitcoin

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Sources

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