Dow and S&P 500 Hit New Highs While Tech Wobbles: Tariffs, Fed Cuts, and IPOs Shape December 11, 2025 Trading -( $EPRX $LMRI $MODD $NOK $OKLO $OPEN $PL $RIO $SOAR Rise!)

Wall Street ended Thursday with the Dow and S&P 500 looking like they’d just discovered compound interest, while the Nasdaq nursed an AI hangover and small caps quietly joined the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged about 1.3% to a fresh record just over 48,700, powered by financials and old-economy stalwarts that suddenly look new again, while the S&P 500 inched to another record close with a roughly 0.2% gain as investors broadened their bets beyond the mega-cap AI complex. The Nasdaq Composite slipped around 0.25% as Oracle’s (ORCL, $198.85, -10.83%) AI spending shock revived bubble chatter and knocked high‑multiple tech, whereas the Russell 2000 enjoyed a 1.21% gain as growth stocks were fairly in favor pst the Fed’s move to trim interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday.

Macro, Fed, yields, shutdown, tariffs

The macro calendar remained distorted by the recent federal government shutdown has delayed some key data releases and forced investors to trade on partial information and dated indicators rather than the usual high‑frequency stream. However, today, the U.S. released key economic data including September international trade figures showing a deficit, weekly jobless claims, and September state employment data, alongside preliminary Quarterly Services & Wholesale Inventories, while Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model updated to 3.6% growth for Q3. Overall, the labor market narrative remains one of cooling but not cracking, and inflation assessments are complicated by the lagged impact of the Trump administration’s latest tariff rounds, which have pushed up goods prices at the margin and left the Fed watching second‑round effects with unusual humility. In this environment, the Treasury curve has continued to steepen as short‑term yields price in further policy easing while longer maturities reflect both term premium and tariff‑linked inflation risk, creating a shape that looks less like a classic recession omen and more like a market attempting to triangulate between growth relief and policy uncertainty.

The Federal Open Market Committee added fuel to the equity melt‑up this week with a third 25‑basis‑point rate cut of 2025, bringing total easing to 75 basis points since September and reinforcing the sense that the Fed is determined to cushion labor‑market softness without completely surrendering to tariff‑driven price pressures. Chair Powell acknowledged that the data backdrop is unusually murky thanks to the shutdown and delayed CPI and PPI reports, but the Committee’s projections still lean toward inflation drifting back toward target as tariff effects fade, giving markets license to extrapolate a gentler policy path into 2026. On the fiscal front, the shutdown itself remains unresolved, with investors increasingly treating it as a chronic drag on sentiment and data quality rather than an acute risk event, while tariff rhetoric remains elevated but largely in line with prior guidance—loud enough to keep supply chains nervous, not yet loud enough to change today’s positioning. The 2-year ended lower at 3.551% & the 1–year closed higher at 4.161%.

Eli Lilly and the weight‑loss arms race

Eli Lilly (LLY, $1,009.38, +1.58%) stole the fundamental spotlight, rising roughly in the low‑single‑digit percentage range after unveiling strong late‑stage data for its next‑generation obesity candidate retatrutide, which not only delivered impressive weight‑loss outcomes but also reduced knee pain in osteoarthritis patients—an elegant reminder that in biopharma, addressable markets can expand faster than waistlines shrink. An accompanying wave of bullish analyst commentary, including a fresh lift in price targets and reiteration of overweight ratings, reinforced the view that Lilly’s obesity franchise and late‑stage pipeline justify its premium multiple and keep it firmly in the conversation as one of the market’s marquee compounders. The stock’s move added incremental leadership to the healthcare complex on a day when AI and cloud names were busy reminding investors that not all exponential curves point up and to the right forever.

AI hardware, megacaps, and the chip stack

In the AI infrastructure lane, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $304.85, -1.45%) has continued to benefit from unrelenting demand for advanced process capacity and packaging, with reports highlighting fully booked CoWoS lines and strong orders from Nvidia (NVDA, $180.93, -1.55%) Apple (AAPL, $278.03, -.27%), and other AI‑hungry customers, even as investors debated how much of that demand is cyclical exuberance versus structural compute transformation. Nvidia itself remained tightly tethered to the day‑to‑day narrative around AI capex, with sentiment pressured by concerns that hyperscalers and cloud providers could re‑optimize spending after Oracle’s more cautious tone, even though underlying demand for accelerators, high‑bandwidth memory, and networking silicon still points to a market in expansion rather than contraction. Broadcom (AVGO, $406.37, -1.60%), for its part, stayed in the market’s good graces as a diversified way to play AI networking and custom silicon, with expectations for its own update this week underscoring how the AI trade has already migrated beyond a single‑ticker story.

Tesla (TSLA, $446.89, -1%) traded more as a macro barometer than discrete news stories, with Tesla’s shares reflecting the ongoing tug‑of‑war between EV margin compression, autonomy optionality, and the broader growth‑stock risk‑premium repricing. Meta’s (META, $652.71, +.40%) AI narrative, centered on infrastructure build‑out and generative‑AI tools inside its social and advertising platforms, kept it firmly in the “picks and shovels plus ad‑tech cash machine” bucket, where investors remain willing to tolerate capex spikes as long as engagement and monetization metrics trend in the right direction. Intel (INTC, $39.51,-3.11%) meanwhile, stayed in the conversation as a turnaround and foundry‑ambition story, with investors weighing its push into external manufacturing and AI‑centric product roadmaps against persistent competitive pressure from both Nvidia and TSMC’s broader customer base.

Old world cyclicals, consumer brands, and industrials

Outside the AI blast radius, legacy giants offered a more grounded narrative. McDonald’s (MCD, $309.71, -.26%) continued to trade as a high‑quality defensive with a pricing‑power halo, drawing support from its ability to sustain traffic and margins despite a more cost‑conscious consumer shaped by tariffs, inflation, and uneven wage gains. Nokia (NOK, $6.36, +2.25%) remained a lower‑beta way to express views on carrier capex and 5G/6G infrastructure cycles, with sentiment still sensitive to any signs of delayed network spending in Europe and emerging markets. Rio Tinto’s (RIO, $76.74, +.66%) equity performance tracked the day’s modestly risk‑on commodity tone, as investors balanced China growth jitters against the longer‑term structural demand for copper, iron ore, and other inputs to both traditional construction and the energy transition.

Upstarts, platforms, and special situations

Further down the market‑cap spectrum, names like Oklo (OKLO, $103, +2.39%), Opendoor (OPEN, $7.05, +.71%), and Palantir (PLTR, $187.54, -.20%) traded more on thematic positioning than headline catalysts. Oklo, the advanced fission and micro‑reactor developer, remains a speculative proxy on next‑generation nuclear as investors reassess the role of firm, low‑carbon baseload in a grid increasingly dominated by intermittent renewables and data‑center‑driven load growth. Opendoor continues to reflect investor skepticism about iBuying economics in a higher‑rate, tariff‑tinged housing environment, where transaction volumes and spreads must work harder to justify inventory risk. Palantir, meanwhile, sits at the intersection of AI, defense, and data infrastructure, with the market still willing to assign a premium for its government and commercial analytics franchise even as the broader AI cohort gets re‑rated on more sober expectations.

Deals, IPOs, and corporate finance

On the primary‑market front, U.S. IPO activity remains robust by post‑pandemic standards, with 2025 issuance already running well ahead of last year and this week’s calendar featuring a mix of traditional operating companies and blank‑check vehicles. Lumexa Imaging (LMRI, $18.52, +.11%) priced a sizable Nasdaq listing in the vicinity of the upper end of its indicated range, raising roughly mid‑hundreds of millions of dollars and underscoring ongoing investor appetite for healthcare and med‑tech stories even amid macro noise. The broader week included additional listings such as Cardinal Infrastructure Group, Meshflow Acquisition, Buda Juice, SFIDA X, and Wealthfront, spanning infrastructure, SPACs, consumer, and fintech, as companies attempt to slide through the issuance window opened by easier Fed policy and resilient equity valuations.

While no single marquee mega‑merger dominated today’s headlines, deal activity has remained steady, with a backdrop of ample private‑equity dry powder and a lower discount rate supporting renewed interest in carve‑outs, roll‑ups, and strategic acquisitions across software, industrials, and healthcare. The combination of a steeper curve, easier policy, and equity indices at or near record highs provides a constructive setting for boards to revisit deferred transaction pipelines, even as regulatory scrutiny and election‑year politics inject additional timing risk into the largest proposed tie‑ups.

Commodities and crypto

In commodities, gold slipped .03% to trade around 4,311.70 dollars an ounce, holding the bulk of the gains notched after the Fed’s rate cut and benefiting from a weaker policy path narrative and ongoing geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. Silver fell 1.08% to $63.89/oz., after its recent catch‑up rally as both monetary‑metal and industrial‑demand angles worked in its favor. Oil prices edged higher by .50% to $57.89/oz‑OPEC supply kept rallies in check despite occasional geopolitical flare‑ups.

Bitcoin, now a macro asset in everything but name, traded just below 93,000 dollars, up 1.01% percent on the day. The broader crypto complex showed a similar pattern of digestion rather than distress, suggesting that, for now, digital assets remain more tethered to global liquidity conditions and real yields than to token‑specific narratives.

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Modular Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: MODD., $.3452, +9.94%), a leader in innovative insulin delivery technology targeting the $3 billion adult “almost-pumpers” diabetes market with user-friendly, affordable patch pumps, today announced that it has priced an underwritten public offering (the “offering”) of 12,173,000 shares of its common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase 6,086,500 shares of its common stock. Each two shares of common stock are being offered and sold together with one accompanying warrant at a combined offering at a price of $0.77, yielding an effective price of $0.38 per share and $0.01 per warrant. The warrants will have an exercise price of $0.45 per share, are exercisable immediately upon issuance and will expire five years following the date of issuance. In connection with the offering, Modular Medical has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of common shares and/or warrants at the public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions. The over-allotment option may be elected with respect to, at the underwriter’s sole discretion, shares and warrants together, solely shares, solely warrants, or any combination thereof. Newbridge Securities Corporation is acting as the sole bookrunner for the offering. Assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds to the Company from the offering are expected to be approximately $4.68 million, before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund operations and for working capital and general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures.

On Nov. 17, Modular announced Institutional Review Board (“IRB”) approval to conduct an in-house study of its next-generation Pivot™ insulin delivery system using insulin on people with diabetes (the “Study”). Pursuant to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) regulations, an IRB is a group that has been formally designated to review and monitor biomedical research involving human subjects. The Study will simulate real-world conditions by delivering insulin to adult participants to gather critical data on device function and usability and obtain user feedback. Modular Medical’s Pivot tubeless patch pump aims to enhance accessibility for underserved patients with diabetes and drive market penetration and expansion.

On Nov. 14, Modular Medical announced the 510(k) premarket submission of its next generation Pivot™ tubeless patch pump to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”). The Company expects to commence the commercial launch of its Pivot pump in Q1 2026. On Nov. 3, Modular Medical the successful validation of its Pivot controller line, a critical milestone in preparing for the commercial launch of its Pivot patch pump targeted for Q1 2026. The Pivot controller line validation further demonstrates manufacturing readiness for high-volume production, positioning Modular Medical to meet the growing demand in the diabetes treatment market for advanced technology.

Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: EPRX, $6.40, +1.59%), a clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary Diffusphere™ technology to optimize local, controlled drug delivery for diseases with significant unmet need, announced (Nov. 13) the second set of 52-week follow up data from its ongoing Phase 1b/2a RESOLVE trial evaluating a single administration EP-104GI for the treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis (“EoE”). James A. Helliwell, Chief Executive Officer of Eupraxia stated,“These data further highlight the strong durability and tolerability profile of EP-104GI, reinforcing its potential to become a convenient, once-a-year treatment that fits seamlessly into routine disease management by aligning with annual patient endoscopies. The Cohorts 5 & 6 patients – the only groups to have reached 52 weeks in the trial – are demonstrating levels of symptom relief that is durable and clinically meaningful – we are very encouraged by this outcome. We’re also pleased that our previously announced 52-week data were presented as a late-breaking presentation at the American College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (ACG). These new results build on that momentum. Given that current EoE therapies often struggle with long-term adherence, we believe a durable, once-yearly treatment could meaningfully improve patient outcomes and establish EP-104GI as a preferred option for both physicians and their patients.”

GeoVax Labs, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOVX, $.3877), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multi-antigen vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer, On Dec. 10, GOVX announced that to help close the gap between ambition and execution, they have expanded its Scientific Advisory Board with a cluster of internationally recognized specialists whose day jobs read like the acknowledgments section of a pandemic playbook. The newly highlighted lineup features Professor Teresa Lambe, Calleva Head of Vaccine Immunology at the Oxford Vaccine Group and a principal architect of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine; Dr. Alessandro Sette of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, a leading T‑cell and immune-correlates researcher; Professor Lance Turtle of the University of Liverpool, a clinician-scientist in viral pathogenesis and long-term immunity; Professor Thushan I. de Silva of the University of Sheffield, an authority on viral evolution and population-level vaccine responses; and Dr. Joshua A. Hill of the University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, a specialist in infectious diseases and vaccine performance in immunocompromised and transplant patients. For a company that still trades like a niche microcap, the SAB now looks suspiciously like a global advisory panel on “how to keep the world from falling apart, immunologically speaking.”

On Dec. 11, GeoVax Labs today addressed reports from UK health authorities confirming the emergence of a newly evolved “recombinant” Mpox strain. Early analysis indicates the variant contains genetic elements from both Clade I and Clade II Mpox viruses, highlighting the ongoing evolution of the pathogen and the potential implications for disease severity, transmissibility, and vaccine readiness.

On Dec. 9, GeoVax announced the issuance of U.S. Patent No. 12,453,760, titled “Enhanced Therapeutic Usage of a Purine Nucleoside Phosphorylase or Nucleoside Hydrolase Prodrug”, by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). The patent provides composition-of-matter and method-of-use protection for GeoVax’s Gedeptin(R) platform in combination with targeted delivery approaches for solid tumors, including head and neck cancer.

Volato Group, Inc. (NYSE American: SOAR, $1.30, +5.69%) and M2i Global, Inc. (MTWO, $.08), a company specializing in the development and execution of a complete global value supply chain for critical minerals, announced on Nov. 19 that Nimy Resources (“Nimy”) and M2i will collaborate with the aim of forming commercially binding contract terms for the respective sale and purchase of gallium production. They also announced (Oct. 16) the next phase of development of the digital and commercial infrastructure underpinning the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve (SMR). M2i initiated the SMR framework and technical specifications earlier this year. Volato is now applying its proven enterprise-software expertise to build and operationalize the secure technology backbone that will support critical mineral traceability, contracting, and compliance across the United States and allied nations. This infrastructure is being developed to serve as the market-facing layer of the U.S. Strategic Mineral Reserve initiative, providing miners, refiners, recyclers, manufacturers, and government entities with a trusted environment for physical critical mineral transactions—with verified provenance, end-to-end custody visibility, and regulatory compliance at its core.

Serina Therapeutics (NYSE American: SER, $3.14), Alabama-based biotech is betting its proprietary POZ platform and reimagined approach to apomorphine delivery may redefine the treatment paradigm for patients who have exhausted standard oral therapies. On Dec. 10, after the close,Serina announced that it has submitted a complete response to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (“FDA”) clinical hold letter for SER-252, the Company’s lead program for advanced Parkinson’s disease. As previously disclosed, the FDA placed the Company’s Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for SER-252 on clinical hold pending additional information related to a commonly used formulation excipient. On November 25, 2025, the FDA issued a formal full clinical hold letter specifying the information required to permit initiation of the planned Phase 1b registrational study, SER-252-1b. The issues identified by the FDA do not relate to the apomorphine active drug substance, its mechanism of action, the use of the enFuse device (Enable Injections) or the broader 505(b)(2) NDA development pathway previously discussed with the Agency.

The InterGroup Corporation (NASDAQ: INTG, $29.15, +0%) reported (Nov. 17) results for the three months ended September 30, 2025. John V. Winfield, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said: “We continue to observe signs of stabilization and recovery across the San Francisco hospitality market, including improving convention calendars, tourism indicators, and business travel activity. On the investment side, our marketable securities activity remained modest with a small net gain, consistent with our emphasis on liquidity and risk discipline.”

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. (DV) closed at $10.98, -1.79%. DoubleVerify, which built its franchise on media verification and ad performance analytics, is now the first badged TikTok Marketing Partner focused specifically on attention measurement, tapping impression-level signals from the platform. Brands gain a granular view of how exposure and user interaction come together across TikTok formats, ad sets, creatives, and objectives, effectively treating every swipe as a tiny A/B test.

Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL, $17.47, +35.01%) is a leading provider of daily data and insights about change on Earth. On Dec. 10. Planet Labs announced financial results for the period ended October 31, 2025. They confirmed that they delivered Record Revenue in Q3 of $81 Million, Up +33% YoY, increased RPOs +361% YoY to $672 Million; Backlog +216% YoY to $734 Million, & generated $114 Million of Year-to-Date Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities.

Macro, Fed, yields, shutdown, tariffs

Eli Lilly and the weight‑loss arms race

AI hardware, megacaps, and the chip stack

Old world cyclicals, consumer brands, and industrials

Upstarts, platforms, and special situations

Deals, IPOs, and corporate finance

Commodities and crypto

Vista Partners Watchlist Updates

Sources

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