Elon Musk’s SpaceX is finally inching toward the public markets, and in the process is threatening to turn the sleepy IPO calendar into something that looks more like a Falcon Heavy launch manifest.
A trillion here, a trillion there
Bankers who spent three years explaining why the IPO window was “technically open, just not for your deal” now have a new script: the space infrastructure trade. SpaceX has begun sounding out Wall Street about a 2026 listing that could raise north of $25 billion at a valuation above $1 trillion, instantly vaulting it into the top tier of global equities and eclipsing the debuts of many old‑economy incumbents. For perspective, only Saudi Aramco has previously floated with a valuation north of $1 trillion, which means the Street is dusting off playbooks last used when oil, not orbit, defined strategic gravity.
From launch company to space utility
For years, the working assumption was that Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite broadband arm, would be the clean, self‑contained IPO, leaving the fiery rocket science in private hands. Instead, current plans tilt toward listing the full stack—launch, satellites, government contracts, and emerging space‑based data centers—as a single “space infrastructure” platform, daring public markets to put a multiple on an integrated off‑planet utility. That shift reflects Starlink’s evolution from side project to cash engine, with analysts estimating roughly $12–15 billion of annual revenue by the mid‑2020s and growth that now looks, in Musk’s once‑preferred phrasing, “smooth and predictable.”
The new centicorn problem
A SpaceX float would instantly reprice a secretive corner of private markets where so‑called “centicorns”—startups valued above $100 billion—have been hiding from the discipline of quarterly earnings calls. If public investors bless a trillion‑plus tag for a company whose business spans war‑zone broadband and Mars‑adjacent ambitions, boards at other mega‑unicorns may find it harder to argue that staying private is a sign of prudence rather than fear of price discovery. Yet the same deal could be a stress test: if an emblematic growth story struggles on debut, the message to the rest of the late‑stage cohort will be that gravity works just as well in capital markets as it does on Earth.
Bankers, meet rocket science
The task now falls to syndicate desks to translate rocket equation and orbital cadence into the more familiar language of discounted cash flows. SpaceX is projected to generate around $15 billion in revenue next year, rising toward the low‑20s billions in 2026, with Starlink expected to supply the bulk of that growth. Against that backdrop, a trillion‑dollar valuation implies investors are paying not only for satellites and launches, but also for a call option on Starship‑enabled markets and space‑based computing, including proposed orbital data centers that would do for AI what cloud once did for storage.
Musk, the market, and the fine print
As usual with Elon Musk, the narrative arrives slightly ahead of the documentation. Reports of an $800 billion implied valuation from an internal share sale have already prompted public pushback from the founder, who insists that price tags will ultimately track execution on Starship, Starlink, and direct‑to‑cell spectrum wins. Yet even that attempted downshift still leaves investors debating how to value a company that compares its launch revenue to NASA’s spending while behaving, in capital‑raising terms, more like a software platform than a traditional contractor. For now, Wall Street seems content to play along; after years of scarcity, a blockbuster that turns space into an asset class is hard to resist—even if the prospectus won’t come with a guarantee of zero turbulence on re‑entry.
The Sources
[1] SpaceX IPO Plan Puts $2.9 Trillion of Listings Back On the Table https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-ipo-plan-puts-2-120000701.html
[2] SpaceX to pursue 2026 IPO raising above $25 billion, source says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-204908368.html
[3] Musk’s SpaceX looks to raise over $25B in 2026 IPO, source says https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tech/musks-spacex-looks-to-raise-over-25b-in-2026-ipo-source-says
[4] SpaceX to Pursue 2026 IPO Raising Far Above $30 Billion https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-203725148.html
[5] SpaceX in talks for share sale that would boost valuation to $800 billion, WSJ reports https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-talks-share-sale-that-would-boost-valuation-800-billion-wsj-reports-2025-12-05/
[6] SpaceX reportedly targets IPO and tests $800B valuation https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-reportedly-targets-ipo-tests-214254401.html
[7] Starlink’s $15.5B Milestone: The Countdown to an IPO That … https://www.ainvest.com/news/starlink-15-5b-milestone-countdown-ipo-launch-satellite-broadband-revolution-2506/
[8] How to Buy Starlink Stock Before Its IPO https://stockanalysis.com/article/how-to-buy-starlink-stock/
[9] SpaceX IPO: everything you need to know https://capital.com/en-int/learn/ipo/spacex-ipo
[10] SpaceX to pursue 2026 IPO raising above $25 billion, source says https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-221347081.html
[11] SpaceX aims for $800 billion valuation in secondary share sale, WSJ reports https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/spacex-aims-for-800b-valuation-in-secondary-share-sale-wsj-reports.html
[12] Elon Musk Is Refuting a Key Detail in SpaceX IPO Reports https://www.inc.com/brian-contreras/elon-musk-refuting-spacex-ipo-800-billion-valuation/91275402
[13] Elon Musk’s SpaceX to raise over $25 billion in blockbuster 2026 … https://www.reuters.com/business/spacex-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-above-30-billion-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-12-09/
[14] SpaceX reportedly planning 2026 IPO with $1.5T valuation target https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-reportedly-planning-2026-ipo-212754948.html
[15] SpaceX plans record-breaking IPO targeting over $30 billion raise – Bloomberg https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-plans-record-breaking-ipo-211501523.html
[16] SpaceX to pursue 2026 IPO raising above $25 billion, source says https://finance.yahoo.com/video/spacex-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-110439175.html
[17] Is SpaceX the Next Big IPO? What Investors Should Know in 2025 https://vocal.media/trader/is-space-x-the-next-big-ipo-what-investors-should-know-in-2025
[18] SpaceX Starlink IPO: Elon Musk pushes date back to at least 2025, report says https://www.fastcompany.com/90759366/spacex-starlink-ipo-elon-musk-pushes-date-back-to-at-least-2025
[19] SpaceX Doubles Valuation to $800B with 2026 IPO Plans as Starlink Drives Growth https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/1pggrf0/spacex_doubles_valuation_to_800b_with_2026_ipo/
[20] SpaceX Hits $350B Valuation 🚀 Starlink IPO? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cut_z2QmWQo
