Equity markets have managed to shrug off trade anxieties and tighter valuations for now, finding strength in robust earnings, softer-than-feared inflation, and persistent U.S. consumer resiliency this summer. Investors, however, remain attuned to imminent tariff deadlines and a delicate Federal Reserve balancing act, which together promise to keep the summer’s calm punctuated by bouts of volatility. However, at the end of the week, the U.S. equity markets entered the mid-summer stretch with a mixture of resilience and caution. The S&P 500 edged higher by 0.6% for the week, notching yet another closing record at 6,297.36 before retreating slightly on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite surged an impressive 1.5%, closing at a fresh record of 20,938.49, largely buoyed by continued outperformance and strength in NVIDIA, Tesla and other large cap technology shares. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped modestly, finishing down 0.1% as traditional industrials faced profit-taking and trade headwinds. The Russell 2000, a barometer of small-cap equities, registered a muted gain of 0.2% for the week, lagging its large-cap peers.
Key Macroeconomic Developments
Inflation: June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, quickening from 2.4% in May. Core CPI (excluding food & energy) advanced at 2.9% yearly. Shelter, energy, and food provided much of the upward pressure, while producer prices were flat on a monthly basis but maintained a 2.3% annual increase.
Employment: The U.S. labor market remained sturdy. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, and the four-week average trended lower, reinforcing impressions of continued labor market resilience.
Retail Sales: Retail sales rebounded with a 0.6% gain for June, outpacing expectations and demonstrating solid consumer appetite in the face of measured inflation and tariff uncertainties.
Housing Starts: New housing starts increased by 4.6% in June, reflecting a tentative recovery in construction even as lingering costs and rate pressures persisted.
Earnings & Corporate Highlights
NVIDIA (NVDA, $172.41): Nvidia extended its rally, advancing toward its eighth consecutive weekly gain rising 4.54% over the last 5-days and reclaiming the top spot as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company with a market cap above $4.2 trillion. The stock received a lift from U.S. government approval to resume specific AI chip sales to China and surging AI investment commitments across large tech. Despite the momentum, some analysts cited rising valuations as a reason for caution.
Tesla (TSLA, $329.65): Tesla shares climbed 5.15% for the week, with Friday’s session particularly strong after the U.S. imposed new tariffs totaling up to 160% on Chinese graphite—a key electric vehicle input. Analysts suggested the overall cost impact would be limited, while the headline’s focus on U.S.-China supply chains kept the stock a focal point for traders.
Meta Platforms (META, $704.28): Meta’s CEO reiterated plans for “hundreds of billions” in data center investments, further cementing its deep partnership with Nvidia.
McDonald’s (MCD, $297.07), Rio Tinto Group (RIO, $60.54), Palantir Technologies (PLTR, $153.52, +8.04% over the last 5-days): No significant single-stock news developments emerged for McDonald’s, Rio Tinto, or Palantir this week in U.S. market reports. All three stocks moved generally with sector peers as markets consolidated record levels.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) closed at $57.98, +30.73% over the last 5-days and is now up +174.79% YTD.
Notable M&A
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern reportedly entered merger discussions to form North America’s largest rail network. This deal, if realized, would invite regulatory scrutiny given its industry implications.
Trade Policy and Tariffs
Tariffs remained front and center as President Trump was reported to be seeking tariffs of at least 15%–20% on European imports, with the threat of a flat 30% tariff if no agreement is reached by August 1. Meanwhile, a 160% effective tariff was slapped on specific Chinese graphite inputs, further complicating global supply chains. Companies continued to indicate that, while tariffs had increased operating complexity, the net impact on consumer demand has so far remained limited as supply chains adjust.
Yield Curve, Interest Rates, & Fed Policy
The 10-year note yield rose 6bps closing at 4.49% closed at 3.88%.
The Federal Reserve did not hold an FOMC meeting this week; the next rate decision remains scheduled for August following the Federal Beige Book’s cautious economic assessment.
Commodities & Cryptocurrencies
Gold and Silver: Both precious metals rallied closing at $3,355.50/oz & $38.425/oz respectively, with silver notably reaching its highest price since mid-2011 on industrial demand and trade uncertainty.
Crude Oil: The price of oil closed at $67.30/bbl rising .48% over the last 5-days.
Bitcoin and Crypto Stocks: Bitcoin traded in a volatile but positive range reaching a new high of $120,925 before backing off to the $117k range at the end of the week, buoyed by risk-on sentiment from tech stocks. Crypto-related equities continued to mirror moves in both technology benchmarks and spot currency prices, generally ending the week higher as investor appetite for growth assets persisted.
