Happy Saturday All! I hope that you all are having a wonderful time with the family or with whatever suits you this weekend.

As for the week, the markets hit all time new highs early on & it seemed that the friendly ‘bunny hop’ market was moving along smoothly and here to stay just like it has been since the Fed start pumping copious amounts of money into the economy and subsequently into the market. However, around mid-week the markets quickly adopted a widespread cautious, if not negative tone, for the balance of the week. The downward and gloomy atmosphere was spearheaded by the reports of  ‘evil’ interest rate spikes that continued in the face of Jerome Powell’s FOMC statement. In the statement, the Fed forecasted stronger economic growth & moved their ‘real’ GDP numbers from 4.2% to 6.5% while confessing that they see inflation rising to some degree in 2021, but also reiterated that they intend to keep interest rates at near-zero levels through 2023. In concert, but countering these so-called good Fed vibes, we also received negative news from Europe, which confirmed a third wave of COVID-19 growth fueled by variants and a lack of progress regarding vaccine accumulation & distribution that was led to new shutdowns & subsequently growth concerns blossomed in the minds of investors and ignited algorithms alike.

To put icing on the cake Friday, the Fed confirmed it would allow the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (“SLR”) exemption, something that most have no idea existed, expire on March 31 as they needed to review the situation due to concerns it is no longer functioning as intended, which in turn increased the level of uncertainty and fears in the markets. The combination of these headlines led to the downward pressure on the markets, especially regarding anything ‘growth oriented’ i.e. the influential information tech which dropped 1.4%. In addition, added pressure surfaced across cyclical names i.e. the energy sector which cascaded 7.7% wk/wk as oil pulled back to close at $61.45/bbl (still high in many circles), the financials sector which fell 1.7% wk/wk, & the real estate sector which was also off 1% wk/wk. 

In turn the the indices ended down across the board as follows: The Dow ended at 32,627.97 (-.5%, wk/wk) (+6.6% YTD), the Nasdaq Composite closed at 13,319.86 (-8%, wk/wk ) (+2.5% YTD) & the S&P 500 closed at 3,913.10 (-.8%, wk/wk) (+4.2% YTD) & Russell 200o had the worse week as it ended at 2,352.79 (-2.8%, wk/wk but still up +15.8% YTD.

Interest rates ended as follows: the 2-yr yield rose 2 basis points to end at .16%, the 10-year yield rose 9 basis points for the second week in a row to close at 1.73%, & the 30-year yield closed at 2.43% up from 2.38%.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher from 91.63 last week to close at 91.86 this week.

THE WEEK’s “MACRO”

On Monday, the macroeconomic schedule produced the Empire State Manufacturing Survey report which confirmed a rise to 17.4 in March. On Tuesday, the Total retail sales report confirmed a drop by 3% month/month in February. This was countered somewhat by the the Total sales report which confirmed a rise by 7.6% & when you exclude autos it jumped 8.3%. The Total industrial production report confirmed a 2.2% decline month/month in February. The capacity utilization rate fell to 73.8% most like a result of in climate weather that was widespread during this period. The NAHB Housing Market Index report dropped to 82 in March. The Business inventories report confirmed a rise by .3% in January. The Import prices report shoed a rise by 1.3% in February & Export prices rose by 1.6% in February. On Wednesday, The Total retail sales report confirmed a drop by 3% month/month in February. This was countered somewhat by the the Total sales report which confirmed a rise by 7.6% & when you exclude autos it jumped 8.3%. The Total industrial production report confirmed a 2.2% decline month/month in February. The capacity utilization rate fell to 73.8% most like a result of in climate weather that was widespread during this period. The NAHB Housing Market Index report dropped to 82 in March. The Business inventories report confirmed a rise by .3% in January. The Import prices report shoed a rise by 1.3% in February & Export prices rose by 1.6% in February. On Thursday, the Initial jobless claims report for the week ending March 13 confirmed a rise by 45k to 770k & the continuing claims report for the week ending March 6 showed a drop by 18k to 4.124M. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index report confirmed a rise by .2% month/month in February. 

Next week, we will receive the Existing Home Sales report for February, the Final GDP growth figure, the PMI composite, and the PCE deflator report.  

TECH HIGHLIGHTS

The ever so popular FAANG’s ended down across the board except for Facebook that jumped 4% on Friday CEO Mark Zuckerberg made positive comments about how Apple’s privacy rule changes may help Facebook, The FAANG’s ended the week as follows: Apple (AAPL) shares closed at $119.99 down from last Friday’s close of $121.03, Amazon (AMZN) closed at $3,074.96 up from last Friday’s close of $3,089.49, Alphabet (GOOG) closed at $2,043.20 down from last Friday’s close of $2,061.92, Facebook (FB) closed at $290.11 up nearly $26/share from last Friday’s close of $264.40 & Netflix (NFLX) closed at $512.18 down from last Friday’s close of $518.02/share. 

Leading EV car maker Tesla (TSLA) slipped to close at $654.87 & down from the $693.73 close last week.

The much traded and Reddit followed Gamestop (GME) closed at $200.27 down from the close $264.50 last Friday.

One of the extremely positive stories came Thursday as Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform, which rose 89.32% to close at $115.09 then legged on up to close at $125.28 on Friday. On Thursday, Upstart announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Prodigy Software, Inc., a provider of cloud-based automotive retail software. Dave Girouard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart stated, “While Amazon and Shopify have modernized the online shopping experience, the auto industry has been left behind. Upstart is on a path to reduce the cost of auto financing, and we can accelerate this opportunity with a modern multi-channel purchase experience. Auto retail is among the largest buy-now-pay-later opportunities, and together with Prodigy, we aim to help dealers create a seamless and inclusive experience worthy of 2021.” Michia Rohrssen, CEO of Prodigy, said, “Our mission has always been to build the world’s best car buying experience, and for the majority of buyers today, that experience includes financing their vehicle. Upstart’s demonstrably better lending technology will enable us to deliver more affordable and transparent auto loans to millions of consumers through our dealer network.” Stay tuned in to this story as approximately $1 trillion of cars are sold in the US, and most of them are financed and thus they may continue to develop as purchasing a car consistently ranks among the worst consumer experiences, with less than 1% of buyers satisfied with the current process.

ACROSS THE DOW 30

Nike (NKE) reported earnings after the close & beat earnings estimates on Thursday while missing on revenue. Q3 reported revenues were $10.4 billion, up 3 percent compared to prior year and down 1 percent on a currency-neutral basis led by Greater China reported revenue growth of 51 percent. NIKE Direct sales were $4 billion, up 20 percent on a reported basis, and up 16 percent on a currency-neutral basis. NIKE Brand digital sales increased 59 percent, or 54 percent on a currency-neutral basis, with strong double-digit increases in all geographies. North America reported revenue declined 10 percent due to supply chain challenges, including global container shortages and U.S. port congestion, impacting the flow of inventory and timing of wholesale shipments.

Disney Schedules Release Of Fiscal Q2 Results On May 13

Walmart Collaborating With American Fashion Designer Brandon Maxwell

The Walt Disney Company’s (DIS) Disney+ streaming program has surpassed 100 million new subscribers, reaching the 9-digit subscriber mark in only 16 months of operations as its users continued to grow during the pandemic. The news was welcomed by Disney CEO Bob Chapek during the company’s annual shareholder meeting this week. The latest growth also marks an increase from the 94.2 million subscribers Disney last reported less than one month ago.

JPMorgan (JPM) Widens Recruitment Program To Include More Black College Students 

Boys & Girls Clubs Of America Working With Salesforce (CRM) To Deliver A Streamlined & Personalized Experience

BIOTECH

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed at $155.89 moves up from last week’s close of $154.75. The NYSE ARCA Biotech Index (^BTK) closed at 5,579.59 up again from last week’s close of 5,547.85. 

Reportedly, AIFA, Italy’s medicines agency has approved the use of the single-dose COVID-19 vaccine produced by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) following approval from the European drugs regulator last week. The J&J’s vaccine approval marks fourth to be allowed for use in the European Union after vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, AstraZeneca-Oxford University, and Moderna received approval for usage for those over 18 years of age.

Cytovia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company developing allogeneic “off-the-shelf” gene-edited Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR)-NK cells derived from induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and NK-Engager Bispecific antibodies, announced today two agreements for R&D and manufacturing operations in Massachusetts and Puerto Rico that will accelerate the company’s Universal iPSC NK cells towards clinical trials beginning in Q4 2021 and gene-edited iPSC CAR-NK cells by 2022. Cytovia will move into state-of-the-art laboratory space at the ABI-LAB facility in Natick, MA in March, and has started recruiting R&D and process development personnel to its existing team. Cytovia’s existing cell therapy operation under the New York Stem Cell Foundation and antibody GMP manufacturing with STC Biologics will continue. In a parallel investment, Cytovia signed a long-term joint collaboration manufacturing and operations agreement with BioSciencesCorp to integrate Cytovia’s manufacturing processes within an existing 95,000 ft2 cGMP facility, including more than 40,000 ft2 of clean-room and biomanufacturing, located in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. The company will recruit manufacturing personnel beginning in summer 2021. “We’re excited to rapidly expand our R&D team with the best talent in the Boston area. The combination of advanced laboratory space and cost-effective cGMP manufacturing capability represents a highly significant milestone as Cytovia’s NK off-the-shelf cell therapies and bispecific products accelerate towards the market,” said Wei Li, Chief Scientific Officer of Cytovia Therapeutics “The integration of Cytovia’s two new facilities is designed to allow the company to take each of our products rapidly and seamlessly into clinical and commercial production.”

GOLD & SILVER MARKETS

Gold prices closed at $1746 up from the $1,728/oz. close last week. This Friday silver prices closed at $26.33/oz. up from the $26.01/oz. close last Friday.

Recently, Phillips S. Baker, Jr., President, and CEO of Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) ($6.50, flat wk/wk) discussed “The Silver Squeeze” while addressing questions from the Tribe Public where he offered valuable insights on silver prices throughout history and the recent volatility that helped move silver related stocks & silver prices. Please view the event video here now. 

JILL – FDX – DKNG

J.Jill, Inc. (NYSE: JILL), a premier omnichannel retailer and nationally recognized women’s apparel brand committed to delighting customers with great wear-now product, annihilations, jumped to a new 52-week high of $9.69 up from the $4.12 level a week ago Thursday prior to closing at $9.20 on Friday. On Tuesday,  Jill reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 30, 2021. Claire Spofford (kn0wn for turnarounds), President and Chief Executive Officer of J.Jill, Inc. stated, “Fiscal 2020 was an unprecedented year for retail given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, through deliberate and aggressive actions, the teams positioned us to end the year with enhanced financial stability, a more nimble cost structure, and cleaner inventory balances. Our fourth quarter results reflect these actions as well as continued progress as we again delivered sequential topline improvement compared to our prior quarter. As we look ahead, we will continue to take disciplined and strategic actions to strengthen the foundation of our operating model to better realize the potential of the J Jill brand and business.” Here’s the balance of the release.

FedEx (FDX) closed at $279.58, +6.1% on Friday after an earnings beat.

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) closed at an all-time closing high at $71.98, +6.46% Friday as online gambling is on the rise & may see an increase during March madness that kicked off this week. Who’s your pick to win it all? With my childhood favorites, IU’s Hoosiers, once again on the sideline, I am tossing a coin between Gonzaga and Illinois to take it all. 

TRADING NEXT WEEK 

We are back to 5-trading sessions again next week. 

Please consider reviewing our complete VP Watchlist here that includes a brief list of highlighted companies that includes Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), Tesla (TSLA) & a select group of emerging names.  The pages will allow you to learn more and keep up with these companies daily. Below is an update for five of the smaller companies from the VP Watchlist. 

QUOTE OF WEEK

Thanks again for your attention this week. Please continue to share your thoughts, questions, & ideas as we move forward. 

In the meantime, please enjoy the balance of the weekly newsletter’s videos, quotes, updates. 

Investing & Inspiration

1. “Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.” — Jeff Bezos
2. “Money is always eager and ready to work for anyone who is ready to employ it.” ― Idowu Koyenikan
3. “The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something – and then pay a lot less.” – Joel Greenblatt
4. “We don’t have an analytical advantage, we just look in the right place.” – Seth Klarman
5. “Men, it has been well said, think in herds. It will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay
6. “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” – George Soros
7. “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott
8. “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!” — John Bogle
9. “No Price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull.” — Anonymous
10. “Investment is an asset or item that is purchased with the hope that it will generate income or appreciate in the future.” — Anonymous
11. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” — Peter Lynch
12. “Wise spending is part of wise investing. And it’s never too late to start.” –Rhonda Katz
13. “If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.” — Carmen Reinhart
14. “It amazes me how people are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble.” ― Robert Shiller
15. “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” — Barton Biggs
16. “The investor’s chief problem — even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham
17. “No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation.” – Robert Rhea
18. “The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.” — Peter Thiel
19. “Money is like a sixth sense – and you can’t make use of the other five without it.” – William Somerset Maugham
20. “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.” — Albert Einstein
21. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett
22. “Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply…and they can’t predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack.” – Peter Lynch
23. “Investing puts money to work. The only reason to save money is to invest it.” – Grant Cardone
24. “Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.” – Jim Rohn
25. “You cannot save time for your future use however you can invest time for your future.” – John F. Heerdink, Jr. 
26. “We always live in an uncertain world. What is certain is that the United States will go forward over time.” – Warren Buffett
27. “Never test the depth of the river with both of your feet.” – Warren Buffet
28. “Know what you own, and know why you own it.” – Peter Lynch
29. “Liquidity is only there when you don’t need it.” -Old Proverb
30. “There is no such thing as no risk. There’s only this choice of what to risk, and when to risk it.” – Nick Murray
31. “If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline.” – Richard Branson
32. “Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.” – Jeremy Siegel
33. “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott
34. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” – Charlie Munger
35. “The entrance strategy is actually more important than the exit strategy.” – Edward Lampert
36. “The rivers don’t drink their own water; Trees don’t eat their own fruits. The sun does not shine for itself, And flowers do not spread their fragrance For themselves. Living for others is a rule of nature” – PopeFrancis
37. “It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.” – John Templeton
38. “Inaction and patience are almost always the wisest options for investors in the stock market.” – Guy Spier
39. “Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive.”  – Warren Buffett
40. “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin
41. “I believe the returns on investment in the poor are just as exciting as successes achieved in the business arena, and they are even more meaningful!” -Bill Gates
42. “Every portfolio benefits from bonds; they provide a cushion when the stock market hits a rough patch. But avoiding stocks completely could mean your investment won’t grow any faster than the rate of inflation.” – Suze Orman
43. “The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and flow of risk capital… the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy.” – John F. Kennedy
44. “If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.
    -George Bernard Shaw
45. “The riskiest thing we can do is just maintain the status quo. I get up at 4:30 in the morning, seven days a week, no matter where I am in the world. I think it is important for people who are given leadership roles to assume that role immediately. What I’ve really learned over time is that optimism is a very, very important part of leadership.” – Bob Iger, Former Ceo of Disney
46. “In the short run, the market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Ben Graham
47. “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” -Robert Arnott
48. “The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future.” -Peter Bernstein
49. “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?” -Robert G Allen
50. “Greed is all right, by the way. I think greed is healthy. You can be greedy and still feel good about yourself.”-Ivan Boesky
51. “Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” -Bruce Kovner
52. “The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” -Jawaharlal Nehru
53. “I talk about macro themes a lot because they are fun to talk about, but it is the risk management that is the most important thing. The risk control is all bottom-up. I structured the business right from the get-go so that we would have lots of diversification.” -Michael Platt
54. “Blaming speculators as a response to financial crisis goes back at least to the Greeks. It’s almost always the wrong response.” -Larry Summers