Vista Partners’ Friday Weekly Market Wrap For December 27, 2019

The broad markets experienced another week of records which culminated in the S&P 500 & the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining new record closes on Friday too. As a result on Friday, the S&P 500 ended the day at 3,240.02, representing a +.6% weekly advance leaving it up +29.2% YTD. In 2019 the S&P 500 has risen throughout 2019 acheiving no less than 34 new record highs. Historically the markets have moved up by an average of 7% the next year after the markets moved by greater 25%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 28,645.26.09 representing a +.7% weekly advance leaving it up +22.8% YTD.

The Nasdaq Composite had gone on solid 11-day run prior to dropping -.17% on Friday ending at 9,006.62, realizing a weekly +.9% advance and is now up an amazing +35.7% YTD.

The Russell 2000 moved lower by -.51% at the close of trading Friday at 1669.03 representing a weekly -.2% decline but remains up +23.8% YTD.

The “fear gauge” Vix (TVIX) ended at $52.17/share up from $50.61/share last Friday’s close.

Next week the markets will close early at 2 pm eastern on Dec. 31, 2019 (New Year’s Eve) and will be closed on Jan. 1, 2020, but are otherwise open during normal hours.

Economic Reports

On Monday, the total durable goods report confirmed a drop by -2% in November below the 1.5% expected rate. However, new home sales in November surprisingly rose +1.3% month/month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719k units while on a year/year basis new home sales are now up +16.9%. The median new-home price jumped +7.2% to $330,800 in November.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we did not receive any significant reports.

On Thursday, we received the initial claims report for the week ending December 21 which went down by 13k to 222k in line with expectations while continuing claims for the week ending December 14 moved lower by 6k to 1.719M. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications dropped -5.3%.

On Friday, we did not receive any significant reports.

Investing & Inspiration

“Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” -Bruce Kovner

“The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” -Jawaharlal Nehru

Tomorrow

Significant US economic data will be limited during the upcoming holiday-shortened week but highlighted by the following:

• Consumer confidence report on Tuesday
• Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) on Friday
• The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes on Friday

The markets close early next week on Dec. 31, 2019 (New Years Eve) at 2 pm eastern and then will be closed on Jan. 1, 202 but is other wise open during normal hours.