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Pfizer States Sour Supply Chain Issue But Investors Make Lemonade On Thursday

By John F. Heerdink, Jr.

Pfizer (PFE) ($40.09/share, -1.74%) surprised the markets with some sour tasting Wall Street Journal reported news that they are having a raw material supply chain issue which is forcing them to cut its 2020 COVID-19 vaccine production target in half and now only anticipates producing 50M doses.  Pfizer has also applied for emergency authorization in the US and is expected to get regulatory clearance in December after receiving emergency approval in the UK yesterday. This news was not exactly what all of us may wanted to hear,  but we are apparently making progress.

Investors too seemed to take this news somewhat in stride today and made a tasty glass of lemonade in the markets for the most part as indices ended in the green except for the S&P 500 which ticked slightly lower closing at 3,666.72 (-.06%).  6 of the eleven sectors closed in the red today, however the energy sector kept charging up 1.1% & the real estate sector added .7% to lead the day. On the other hand, the Nasdaq ended at 12,369.52 (+.23%), the Dow 30 closed at 29,969.52 (+.29%) & the small caps on the Russell 2000 finished at 1,848.70 (+.58%).

Speaking further of lemonade, Lemonade. Inc. (NYSE:  LMND), a company that offers renters, homeowners, and pet health insurance in the United States, and contents and liability insurance in Germany and the Netherlands, through its full-stack insurance carriers while being powered by artificial intelligence and behavioral economics & that has a mission to replace brokers and bureaucracy with bots and machine learning, aiming for zero paperwork, shot up +20.23% today as it closed at $80.35/share. The stock had been hit recently after it released its Q3 results that you can review here within their letter to shareholders

MACRO

The macroeconomic scheduled delivered the Initial claims report for the week ending November 28 which confirmed a drop by 75k to 712k and continuing claims for the week ending November 21 dropped by 569k to 5.520M. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report confirmed a fall to 55.9% in November but above expansion.

AROUND TECH

The heavily weighted & popular FAANGs were off today and ended as follows:  Apple (AAPL) ($122.94, -.11%), Amazon (AMZN) ($3,186.73, -.52%), Alphabet (GOOG) ($1,826.77, -.06%), Facebook (FB) ($281.85, -1.97%) & Netflix (NFLX) closed at $497.52/share, -1.16%.  

Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) closed at $593.38/share, +4.23% as it received Buy recommendation from Goldman Sachs that included a $780/share PT. Chinese EV concern NIO Limited (NIO) closed at $45.35/share dropping 5.48% and giving back yesterday’s gains.  

Leading provider of zero emission hydrogen engines and fueling solutions, Plug Power (PLUG), closed $23.85/share down .91% after recently establishing a new all time high of $28.70. Last Monday night’s announcement confirmed that they had sold 38M shares priced at $22.25/shares raising a whopping $845.5M which represented about 9.1% of the shares outstanding. 

The leading pan-African e-commerce platform Jumia Technologies (JMIA) kept up its winning ways again today as it closed at $33.34/share, +1.96% and up nearly 20% in two days.

Two software companies beat the street’s estimates today as Snowflake (SNOW) who also recently had the high flying IPO process closed at $339.89/share, +16.1% & Zscaler (ZS) closed at $185.61/share, +26.5%.

GOLD, SILVER & Oil

Silver prices closed a US $24.14/oz, +.01 & gold prices closed at US $1,840/oz, +9. North American silver and gold producer Hecla Mining Company (HL) closed at $5.07/share (-2.87%). HL’s 52-week range is $1.40 – $6.79. Recently, Hecla announced Q3 2020 financial and operating results. Phillips S. Baker, Jr., Hecla’s President and CEO stated, “Because of our strong operating performance and higher prices, Hecla had record adjusted EBITDA, generated the most free cash flow in a decade and repaid our revolver in full. These accomplishments were achieved because of our workforces’ resiliency and our commitment to health and safety. With the Lucky Friday ramp-up ahead of schedule, the expected improvements at Casa Berardi, and our modest planned capital expenditures, we are well positioned to further strengthen our balance sheet, increase exploration activities, and pay our enhanced dividend.” Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) closed at $23.16/share, +2.07%. 

Oil prices moved higher again up .8% to close at $45.66/bbl. it was widely reported that OPEC+ had agreed lesser than expected 500K bpd production increase which is slated to begin in January.

MONEY

The 2-yr treasury yield moved down 1 basis point to end at .15% while the 10-yr yield dropped 3 basis points to end at .92%. The U.S. Dollar Index weakened again closing at 90.70. 

TOMORROW

The Macro schedule will deliver the Employment Situation Report for November, the Trade Balance Report for October, and Factory Orders Report for October.

WATCH LIST

  • Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE) closed at $60.42/share, -.18% today after establishing a new-all-time record high of $61.72/share.
    • Fate is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of programmed cellular immunotherapies for cancer and immune disorders.
    • Recently, Fate announced that management will host a virtual event entitled “The Power of hnCD16” on Friday, December 4, 2020 at 4:30 PM EDT. The event will highlight the unique therapeutic features and functionality of the Company’s proprietary high-affinity, non-cleavable CD16 (hnCD16) Fc receptor, a core component incorporated in its iPSC-derived NK cell product candidates. The Company’s hnCD16 Fc receptor is designed to maximize antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity, a potent anti-tumor mechanism by which NK cells recognize, bind and kill antibody-coated cancer cells.

  • Shares of INVO Bioscience (INVO) closed trading at $3.10/share down 2.36% after recently being added to the Nasdaq. 
    • INVO is a medical device company focused on creating alternative treatments for patients diagnosed with infertility and developers of INVOcell®, the world’s only in vivo Intravaginal Culture System. Industry forecasts suggest that only 1% to 2% of the estimated 150 million infertile couples worldwide are currently being treated. INVO’s mission is to increase access to care and expand infertility treatment across the globe with a goal of improving patient affordability and industry capacity. Since January 2019, INVO Bioscience has signed commercialization agreements in the United States, India, as well as parts of Africa and Eurasia and Mexico for the INVOcell device.
  • Shares of NeuBase Therapeutics (NBSE) closed at $8.05/share, -1.71%. It’s 52-week high is $11.78/share.
    • NeuBase is developing the next generation of gene silencing therapies with its flexible, highly specific synthetic antisense oligonucleotides. The proprietary NeuBase peptide-nucleic acid (PNA) antisense oligonucleotide (PATrOL™) platform allows for the rapid development of targeted drugs, increasing the treatment opportunities for the hundreds of millions of people affected by rare genetic diseases, including those that can only be treated through accessing of secondary RNA structures. Using PATrOL technology, NeuBase aims to first tackle rare, genetic neurological disorders. NeuBase is continuing its progress towards developing treatment candidates in Huntington’s Disease (HD) and Myotonic Dystrophy (DM1) and is expected to release further data prior to year end 2020.
    • This week, NeuBase announced the appointment of Curt Bradshaw, Ph.D., as its new Chief Scientific Officer. Dr. Bradshaw is a proven drug developer in the field of precision genetic medicines, coming to NeuBase from his most recent role as Chief Scientific Officer at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) ($64.72/share +3.32%) ($6.65B mkt cap). In his new role, Dr. Bradshaw will be responsible for leading and expanding NeuBase’s PATrOL-enabled anti-gene pipeline and will serve as a key member of its executive management team. Learn more.
  • Shares of Atossa Therapeutics (ATOS) closed at $1.51/share, -.33%. 
    • Atossa is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company seeking to discover and develop innovative medicines in areas of significant unmet medical need with a current focus on breast cancer and COVID-19.
    • An 8k was recently filed at sec.gov by Atossa that read  “On November 26, 2020, Atossa Therapeutics, Inc. (“Atossa”) entered into a sponsored research agreement with Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Inc. (the “Agreement”). The Agreement provides that Atossa will support research of cytokine-coated nanoparticles for the potential treatment of breast cancer by Carl Novina, MD, Ph.D.”
    • Atossa also announced recently the blinded preliminary results from its Phase 1 clinical study using Atossa’s proprietary drug candidate AT-301 administered by nasal spray. AT-301 was found to be safe and well tolerated in this study at two different dose levels in both single and multiple dose forms over 14 days. AT-301 is being developed for at home use for patients recently diagnosed with COVID-19. There are currently no FDA-approved therapies to treat COVID-19 at home. Learn more.
  •  

Economic Reports

  • On Monday, we received the Chicago PMI report for November which fell to 58.2%. The Pending home sales report confirmed a drop by 1.1% in October.
  • On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index report confirmed that it had ticked lower to 57.5% in November but still above the expansion line. The total construction spending report showed a rise by 1.3% month/month in October while total private construction spending increased 1.4% month/month & total public construction spending rose 1% as low mortgage rates persist which is helping drive demand. The Markit Manufacturing PMI report for November was moved lower to 56.7%.
  • On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change report for November estimated 307k jobs were added to private-sector payrolls. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index confirmed a drop by .6%. The weekly crude oil inventories report showed a continued decline as it dropped by 679k barrels.
  • On Thursday, the Initial claims report for the week ending November 28 confirmed a drop by 75k to 712k and continuing claims for the week ending November 21 dropped by 569k to 5.520M. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report confirmed a fall to 55.9% in November but above expansion.

Investing & Inspiration

“No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation.” – Robert Rhea

“Money is like a sixth sense – and you can’t make use of the other five without it.” – William Somerset Maugham

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.” — Albert Einstein

“Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results” — Warren Buffett

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

“Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed’s policy on money supply…and they can’t predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack.” – Peter Lynch

“Investing puts money to work. The only reason to save money is to invest it.” – Grant Cardone

“You cannot save time for your future use however you can invest time for your future.” – John F. Heerdink, Jr. 

“Know what you own, and know why you own it.” – Peter Lynch

“Liquidity is only there when you don’t need it.” -Old Proverb

“If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline.” – Richard Branson

“Fear incites human action far more urgently than does the impressive weight of historical evidence.” – Jeremy Siegel

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott

“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” – Charlie Munger

“The entrance strategy is actually more important than the exit strategy.” – Edward Lampert

“The rivers don’t drink their own water; Trees don’t eat their own fruits. The sun does not shine for itself, And flowers do not spread their fragrance For themselves. Living for others is a rule of nature” – Pope Francis

“It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.” – John Templeton

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin.

I believe the returns on investment in the poor are just as exciting as successes achieved in the business arena, and they are even more meaningful!” -Bill Gates

“Every portfolio benefits from bonds; they provide a cushion when the stock market hits a rough patch. But avoiding stocks completely could mean your investment won’t grow any faster than the rate of inflation.” – Suze Orman

“The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility, and flow of risk capital… the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy.” – John F. Kennedy

“If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion. -George Bernard Shaw

“There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”-Ed Seykota

“Let this scenario play out on its own, in its own fashion. As you watch it unfold, you will soon be grateful that you choose the peaceful path. Remember — those who live by the sword, die by the sword.”

“As long as you enjoy investing, you’ll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game.” -Jim Cramer

“I rarely think the market is right. I believe non-dividend stocks aren’t much more than baseball cards. They are worth what you can convince someone to pay for it.” -Mark Cuban

Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” -Bruce Kovner

“The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” -Jawaharlal Nehru

“The only true test of whether a stock is “cheap” or “high” is not its current price in relation to some former price, no matter how accustomed we may have become to that former price, but whether the company’s fundamentals are significantly more or less favorable than the current financial-community appraisal of that stock.” -Philip Fisher

“I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.” -Richard Dennis

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.” -Sir John Templeton

“Money doesn’t make you happy. I now have $50 million but I was just as happy when I had $48 million.” -Arnold Schwarzenegger

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